Rus News Journal

The Russian market: “ bulls “ do not hurry up to come back

On Monday, on April, 19th, the Russian market practically did not have chances of growth. In - the first, the extremely negative closing of Friday session has accurately specified in moods of large players. History with the claim to one of the largest banks of the USA - Goldman Sachs Inc. It has appeared serious, and the bank, despite attempts otkrestitsja from the published news at the auctions in the USA, promptly lost capitalisation. Investors of all stock markets are not pleased with that fact that the new problems of banks hidden since financial crisis can emerge. Negative influence was rendered also by results of the auctions in Asia which markets introduction of new restrictions by the authorities of China on transactions with real estate with a view of restraint of a rise in prices for it affected. As a result the Asian indexes have finished session by falling. At last, the prices for oil which were rolled away already to level of the end of March of current year continued to be reduced. On this background the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index has confidently punched downwards the bottom border of the ascending channel on a mark of 1485 points and has finished day in a deep minus.

following the results of trading session on April, 19th the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index has decreased on 2,4 % - to 1459,17 points, RTS - on 2,49 % and has reached a point 1601,67 points. The volume of the auctions by actions on FB the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange has made 66,75 mlrd rbl.

Against problems at Goldman Sachs and expectations of occurrence of those at other leading investment banks the Russian financial sector on Monday looked very poorly. The price of papers of Rosbank has decreased on 2,59 %, Bank of Moscow - on 1,23 %, bank “ the Renaissance “ - on 1,42 %. The basic negative has had on the action of bank VTB which quotations have failed on 5,36 %. However it was formed impressive (2,2 %) open gep downwards so, it is possible to expect fast return of quotations to level 0,084 rbl./ the action. The Savings Bank was in great demand, than its competitor with the state participation, and was limited to loss of 1,9 % of capitalisation. Some support to it was rendered by revision of fair cost of its papers by bank Credit Suisse to 3,8 dollars/ the action and increase of the recommendation to “ to buy “. On global depozitarnym to receipts VTB look-ahead cost also is raised, the recommendation " however has held good; to sell “.

In metallurgical sector among leaders of decrease it has appeared GMK “ Norilsk nickel “ to it Credit Suisse has lowered the recommendation with “ to buy “ to “ to hold “ after impressive growth of quotations for last months. On this background the price of actions “ Nornikelja “ has fallen to 1,61 %. During the day decrease was more appreciable, but it could interrupt 21 - day sliding average. About crisis of an ascending tendency here speeches do not go yet. Poorly looked also NLMK (- 2,35 %) and TMK (- 2,66 %), looked " more positively; Severstal “ (- 1,15 %) and MMK (- 1,1 %). Last has informed on April, 19th on increase in manufacture of a steel in I quarter 2010γ. On 7 % in comparison with the last quarter. “ a pole gold “ it was limited to decrease on 1,69 %.

the Ambiguous news background has developed around “ Mosenergo “. “ Alpha bank “ has raised a look-ahead stock value of the company to 0,2 dollars/ the action and has kept the recommendation “ to buy “ but simultaneously Citigroup has reconsidered the recommendation on “ Mosenergo “ to “ to sell “ as experts of bank do not see essential potential of growth. By the end of day of the action “ Mosenergo “ have fallen in price on 0,99 %. Quotations FSK EUROPEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY have fallen to 2,73 %, “ Inter the Russian Open Society “United Power Systems“ “ - on 1,79 %, “ Holding MRSK “ - on 0,4 %. Has to the best caused a stir “ RusGidro “ its capitalisation has increased on April, 19th by 1,26 %. Actually, it was the unique growing paper among first two tens the most liquid actions.

following the results of Monday were formed both negative factors, and moderately positive. It is bad that the price for oil submits on 2 dollars a day and that the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index has punched intermediate term level of support on a mark of 1485 points. Guards also a signal on the sale, arriving from technical indicators having slowed down action. On the other hand, on April, 19th the market could not fall for the bottom border of the long-term ascending channel passing on closing of Monday through a mark of 1438 points on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange. The rebound of quotations can begin with current positions upwards, as the prices rejected to levels of the beginning of March 2010γ., already look attractively for speculators. Nevertheless, care will not prevent, after all positive moods do not hasten to come back to the American platforms.

analysts make following recommendations about actions of the leading Russian companies:

Bank VTB: to hold
Gazprom: to buy
LUKOIL: to accumulate
MTS: to buy
Norilsk nickel: to accumulate
NK Rosneft: to accumulate
the Savings Bank of Russia: to buy
Surgutneftegaz: to hold

Recommendations are made on the basis of annual a consensus - forecasts targetov the investment companies presented in a product “ Forecasts of the prices of actions “.

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