Rus News Journal

Forecasts of analysts: Bears will try to be fixed in the market

In first half of auctions of Thursday, on October, 20th, the market it was trampled down below level of resistance of 1400 points on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange, reacting to the inconsistent information arriving from the European monetary authorities. Then the indicator managed to escape upwards, but the weak data about a condition of the American labour market has again cooled enthusiasm of buyers. In the USA quantity of primary references on unemployment for a week which has come to the end on October, 15th 2011., has decreased in comparison with a similar indicator week before and has made 403 thousand Analytics expected that the indicator will make 400 thousand requirements. Besides, under the specified data, quantity of primary references on unemployment for the week which has come to the end on October, 8th 2011., has made 409 thousand, instead of 404 thousand as it was informed earlier. Analysts are adjusted sceptically enough concerning a situation in the market in immediate prospects. Numerous statements, encouraging disappointing investors, will promote hardly to distinct dynamics. Most likely, experts believe, the market will be consolidated at current levels, expecting occasions to movement in this or that party.

as the deputy chief of department of the analysis of macroeconomic and a conjuncture of financial markets Promsvjazbanka Oleg Shagov has noted, the domestic share market has begun trading session on Thursday with fall of key share indicators in a context of marked negative dynamics in the global markets. However in the middle of trading day the share market of the Russian Federation has managed to win back the most part of the morning losses against sudden lifting of the European share indexes and currency pair of euro/ dollar. Optimism splash on the European platforms on Thursday was caused by the published details of the prospective mechanism of functioning of the European fund of stability (EFSF) which can buy bonds of the problem countries of an eurozone. At the same time in the project of the communique of the forthcoming summit of the European Union it is said that the agreement on the constant mechanism of rescue of the problem countries of the currency union will be reached till the end of November. The interdiction to the international rating agencies in certain circumstances can become one more European innovation to publish forecasts on the crisis countries. In particular, it is offered to allocate the European department on supervision of securities markets (ESMA) with the right temporarily to forbid rating agencies to give comments concerning credit status of the countries which are carrying on negotiations about granting of the financial help with EFSF or IMF. Attempts of introduction of a similar legislative taboo on decrease in ratings at an inopportune moment say that the European crisis is still very far from the end and will continue to have destabilising influence on world economy.

In immediate prospects besides the European news shifts will continue to influence dynamics of the share market of the Russian Federation in a conjuncture world share, commodity and the currency markets, and also the data of macroeconomic statistics and the corporate reporting, the expert marks.

by a weekend the situation in the markets began to worsen, analysts of the Savings Bank mark. More and more inconsistent statements of a management of Germany, France and officials of EU, acceptances reducing probability at the summit of EU of decisions expected by investors coming during week-end became the basic occasion to appetite easing to risk. Analysts remind that before mass-media, referring to informed circles, informed that Germany and France already have agreed, in particular, about substantial growth of volume EFSF. However already on Wednesday evening there were messages that heads of France and Germany all - taki cannot eliminate distinction of the approaches: following the results of a two-hour meeting And. By Merkel and N.Sarkozi it has not been made public comments of a course of negotiations, and mass-media, again referring to sources, have informed that Germany against leveredzha EFSF at the expense of issue from party ETSB. A.Merkel has added to investors of pessimism the statement that the forthcoming summit will not solve all problems of an eurozone, and Jean - Claude Junker (the head of Eurogroup) has declared that negotiations will proceed on Saturday and Sunday. Thus, prior to the beginning of the summit of head of two leading European economy could not agree that does results of the summit of EU slabopredskazuemymi. And, means, risks of a tightening of problems in Europe raise - analysts underline.

except EFSF, can to hang and a problem co-ordinated rekapitalizatsii the European banks: mass-media have informed that the volume rekapitalizatsii banks of EU will be not not exceeded 100 mlrd by euro, and its realisation as it is supposed, will occupy 6 - 9 months. It, according to experts, it is not enough - even obviously conservative estimation of IMF (200 mlrd euro) essentially above. Intensity and round Greece grows, the parliament discusses new draconian economy measures while the country does not carry out earlier undertaken. On this background experts expect gradual cooling of the markets - too important news will arrive on the markets after the termination of trading week. Besides, and events of the next week are extremely important - besides an estimation of results of the summit of EU, to investors the key statistics of October (the first estimation of gross national product of the USA for III quarter), and also results (and forecasts) representatives of industrial and retail sectors of the USA becomes known.

the Russian share market, despite deterioration of an external conjuncture, continues to be consolidated round a mark of 1400 points on both indexes. While, according to analysts, a spirit on achievement of the nearest purposes of ascending correction (1450 - 1480 points on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange) remain. However instability of the markets of EU and the weekend factor can lead on Friday to fall to the nearest supports (1350 - 1370 points on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange), having postponed realisation of the further correctional growth before reality occurrence across Europe.

the head of analytical department GK Broco Alexey Matrosov believes that on Friday stock market of the Russian Federation will bargain in a range 1360 - 1420 points on RTS index as the weak macroeconomic data from Germany and not inspiring corporate reporting in the USA is expected. However but positive expectations concerning debt problems of EU will keep share indexes from sharp falling, the expert underlines.

on Thursday the local share market bargained with losses on a number of the basic indexes, echoing negative moods in the global markets. On the European platforms the published details of the prospective mechanism of functioning EFSF which can buy bonds of the problem countries of a zone of euro could compensate a part of losses, expert Rye, Man and Gor securities Vladimir Aleksandrov marks. He believes that till October, 23rd, staying in expectation of important decisions, participants of the market will keep a waiting attitude with possible sales on nerves .

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