Rus News Journal

Eurobonds: occasions to optimism are not present

On Wednesday, on November, 19th, in the market of eurobonds sales have proceeded. Occasions to optimism while are not present. Considerable demand on bezriskovye the actives, warmed up by decrease in leading share indexes and weak macrostatistics, keeps investors from investments in emerging markets.

the publication in the USA the data about dynamics of consumer prices in October became important event of day. The country Ministry of Labour has informed that consumer prices in October 2008. Have decreased on 1 % in comparison with the last month. Analysts expected that the given indicator will decrease for 0,7 %. Besides, base inflation (Core CPI) also has now negative value (- 0,1 %).

Moreover, before opening of the auctions the Ministry of Trade of the United States has published the report, according to which volume of building of new houses in the country in October 2008. Has decreased on 4,5 % in comparison with the last month - to 791 thousand units. It is the minimum indicator from the beginning of tracing of a rating (1959.) .

On Wednesday also it became known that congressmen have rejected the plan of the financial help to three largest motor-car manufacturers (General Motors, Ford and Chrystler), having left that open space for gamble concerning their financial stability (especially concerning GM). Besides, published minutes FOMC have shown that members FRS adhere to enough pessimistic forecast concerning economy of the USA in 2009., mark in MDM - Bank.

as a result against unfavourable news release Russia - 30 has decreased to 79,875-80,250 dollars that would promote expansion of a spread to 810-820. The item According to analysts IK the Three Dialogue in long corporate releases of essential support is not present, activity almost completely is absent. Demand on short Severstal - 09, Gazprom - 09 and Sibneft - 09 was meanwhile observed. All specified papers grew in the price at demand from outside both foreign, and the Russian investors.

thus spreads CDS of the Russian companies have changed raznonapravlenno. 5 - summer CDS VTB has decreased on 4. 7. The item also would make almost 1330. The item, CDS Gazprom would reach 1200. The item (+63. The item), and spread CDS of Russia would grow to 910. The item (+38. Items), mark in Bank of Moscow.

according to the experts YOKES Kapital recently have considerably grown CDS on the largest Russian metallurgists (Evraz Group and Severstal ) . Fears of investors are caused by the increased debt of these companies, refinansirovat which now it is possible basically only at the state. In particular, Evraz should extinguish only till the end of this year credits on 2 mlrd dollars With a high probability the company can carry out of the short-term obligations. However in longer prospect the situation is less certain. So, profitableness on intermediate term releases of eurobonds Evraz and Severstal exceeds 40 %.

As a result hardly investors should reflect on aggressive investments in corporate Russian eurobonds, expecting price growth, except for tools which can have the state support or maintenance, and also possess high credit quality at short term before repayment, experts have concluded.

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