FRS the USA has lowered forecasts on the American economy on 2008 - 2009γγ.Economic activity in the USA continues to decrease. Next week, on Tuesday, on November, 25th, the data about preliminary value of an index of an internal national produce (GDP) will be published. The consensus - the forecast assumes its decrease on 0,6 % and as the previous value of an indicator has shown gross national product reduction on 0,3 %, in aggregate it testifies to economy slipping in a recession strip. On this background the decision of Federal reserve system of the USA to lower the forecast of growth of the American economy in 2008 - 2009γγ. To a minimum level did not become for anybody a surprise. now all is so obvious that the market, seemingly, has not paid attention that representatives FRS mean recession, - the analyst of the company " speaks; Aton Inga Foksha. - the Market should read between lines: Dear sirs, year of our efforts, and we . In recession .
According to new forecast FRS the USA, gross national product will not change or will grow all on 0,3 % during the current year. In 2009γ., possibly, gross national product will fluctuate between decrease on 0,2 % and growth on 1,1 %. Inflation in the USA is expected at level 2,8 - 3,1 % during the current year and 1,3 % and 2 % - in 2009γ. As to a rate of unemployment, that, according to analysts FRS, its level will grow in a range from 6,3 % to 6,5 % in 2008γ., and in 2009γ. - from 7,1 % to 7,6 %. If prior to the beginning of recession the rate of unemployment has grown on 1,8 % for a year to expect that in its heat growth will make an order of 1 % - twice less - slyness. I would assume 10 % " more likely; - tells I.Foksha.
thus analysts believe that the American monetary authorities the next two months should go on fall of the base interest rate to zero not to admit a deflation. A number of representatives FRS have confirmed this opinion, having declared that against Considerable decrease in rates of increase of economy in the near future it will be necessary additional simplification of a course transfers Associated Press. We will remind that following sessions of committee are planned for December, 16th and on January, 28th. From the beginning 2008γ. Rate FRS has been lowered in general on 3,25 percentage points.
falls of forecasts are quite logical, mark interrogated Quote. ru experts: in 2009γ. Anything good neither economy of the USA, nor world economy does not expect. Gross national product reduction inevitably, all question in its depth and duration, is told by the director of exchequer of the Euroasian bank of development (EABR) Sergey Yelagin. Most likely, cardinal crisis till the end of next year will not occur. However, if to compare prospects of the future restoration of economy in the different countries, that, despite of everything, the economy of the USA, according to the expert, looks more preferable than others, and at achievement world a bottom Its restoration can appear faster. If to speak about concrete figures the next years S.Yelagin tends to pessimistic forecasts, according to which already in 2008γ. There can be some decrease in gross national product of the USA, and in 2009γ. It can reach several percent.
the operating director of the company Arbat the Capital Alexander Orlov considers that from FRS already a little that depends, now all hopes of Barack Obama`s financial stimulus and the new Minister of Finance which should be declared in the beginning of next year. recession is inevitable, and it is not necessary to try to prevent it. The primary goal - not to admit a collapse of financial architecture of the world and to carry out koordinirovannuju all countries G - 20 sanitation of a financial system - the expert underlines. According to its forecasts, gross national product of the USA will make this year (- 0,5 % - 0 %), in the following - (- 2 %... - 3 %).
too courageous for the financial authorities definition of terms of recession seems before it still officially is not recognised by National bureau of economic researches, adds I.Foksha. all representatives of the power have converged that will go on any necessary measures, and suppose next rate decrease. Though if to return to the summit all it became clear that at level of the financial authorities there is no global decision on crisis overcoming - the analyst speaks. All understand that the co-ordinated measures are necessary, but nobody knows what, therefore all continue to struggle independently with problems of the countries.