Rus News Journal

The markets of Europe: the rise in prices of bonds does not stop

On Thursday, on November, 20th, growth of quotations in the market of the European state bonds has proceeded. Demand for the state bonds continues to grow against expectations of decrease in interest rates ETSB. Participants of the market are assured that the monetary authorities of the European region will continue a policy of support of economy slipping in recession. On Thursday active purchases of bonds were stimulated in addition with the inflationary statistics which has left in Germany. According to federal statistical bureau in Wiesbaden, the prices of manufacturers in October have not changed (decrease on 0,7 %) in comparison with September when their growth has made 0,3 % was predicted. In annual expression of the price of manufacturers have grown in October on 7,8 % (growth on 7,3 % was expected). The September annual rise in prices of manufacturers has made 8,3 %.

have even more urged forward purchases of the European debt papers of the statement at once two councillors of managing directors ETSB. Lorentso Bini Smagi is assured that the monetary authorities of the European region will hardly be limited to disposable decrease in interest rates. how events will develop further, probably, it is required to reduce interest rates still. The main thing, a financial system completely reflects decrease in rates - he has declared. At the same time operating bank of Austria Evald Novotni   has expressed in favour of the further measures which are necessary for undertaking ETSB in the conditions of recession and inflationary pressure decreasing in region.

continue to support demand for promissory notes of the European governments and the falling prices of actions for world share platforms. Pessimistic moods of investors after a collapse of quotations, an event the day before in the American stock market, have amplified and with opening of the auctions at the Asian stock exchanges where falling of the prices stimulated the strongest for last seven years decrease in export of a Japanese industrial output. As a result index MSCI Asia Pacific Index has fallen to closing of the auctions more than on 5,1 %. More than 3 % has lost and a leading index of European actions Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index.

Fears of investors concerning recession of economy of the countries of an eurozone, its duration and the depths which are daily proving to be true with the data of the macroeconomic statistics, do not give possibility to traders to switch the attention with protective to brave actives. In particular, the raised demand for promissory notes of English government Gilts has been provided this time by the statistics which has left in Great Britain about     Retails (Retail Sales), which volume, has decreased in October on 0,1 % (was expected decrease on 0,9 %) in comparison with September and has risen on 1,9 % (growth on 1,4 %) in annual calculation was expected. However in spite of the fact that retails are reduced the second month successively, it is necessary to notice that indicator reduction has appeared much less forecasts. British, statistically, published by national statistical bureau in London, spend the most part of means for foodstuff, considerably having cut down expenses on the electrogoods and clothes subjects.

Besides, in Great Britain have been published   indicators   monetary unit M4, and also the data about requirements of public sector for cash inflow (PSNCR) and   pure loans of public sector (Public Sector Net Borrowing). According to national statistical bureau in London, monetary unit M4 has grown in October on 2,3 % (growth on 0,8 %) in relation to September of current year was expected and on 15,7 % (growth on 12,7 % was predicted) - in annual calculation. Requirements of public sector for cash inflow (PSNCR) have decreased in October on 4,9 mlrd pounds sterling (decrease, twice smaller - on 2,5 mlrd pounds sterling) in comparison with the last month was expected, and pure loans of public sector (Public Sector Net Borrowing) have increased on 1,4 mlrd pounds sterling (growth more than three times smaller - on 0,4 mlrd pounds sterling was predicted).

So, interest of participants of the market to debt papers of the European governments does not decrease, and day changes of the prices only grow. It   testifies   that interest to the European state bonds not simply remains, but also grows. Adherence of traders to Protective strategy are kept by an ascending trend   dynamics   the majority of liquid debt papers. To closing of the auctions on Thursday almost all most liquid papers have finished day growth of quotations. Profitableness 2 - summer Bunds would fall on 13. The item, and 10 - summer Bunds Germany - on 16. The item the Spread between 2 - summer and 10 - summer Bunds Germany would be narrowed with 137. The item to 133. The item the Spread between 2 - summer and 10 - summer Bunds Germany though and gradually decreases last days, but continues to be kept on the maximum marks for the four-year period, and it -   a sign of that,   that investors still actively put that ETSB will continue a policy of decrease in interest rates.

results of the auctions by the state bonds of Germany at the London stock exchange on   20:00 Moscow time:



Results of the auctions by the state bonds of Great Britain:



Results of the auctions by the French state papers:



In   conditions when stock quotes continue to fall on all world exchange platforms, rates of economic growth continue to be slowed down, and Central Banks continue to reduce the interest rates, the most attractive to investment the state bonds, especially, short-term look. Such situation, most likely, will remain.

on Friday, on November, 21st, in the eurozone countries the data   will be published; an index of expectations of managers on purchases in manufacturing industry (PMI Manufacturing) and in sphere of services (PMI Services). According to the experts, index PMI Manufacturing of Germany will decrease in November from an October mark 42,9 to 42,0 points, France   - with   40,6 to 40,0 points, eurozones -   with 41,1 to 40,5 points.

By estimations of analysts, the index of expectations of managers on purchases in sphere of services (PMI Services) Germany will fall in November from the previous mark 48,3   to 47,5 points,   France   - with   47,5 to 47,0 points, and eurozones -   with 45,8 to 45,0 points. Analysts and decrease in a summary index (PMI Composite) expect an eurozone   from October level 43,6 to 42,8 points.

in France the exit of the data about consumer expenses (Consumer Spending) is expected. By estimations of analysts, consumer expenses in October will be reduced to 0,5 % in comparison with September when their growth has made 0,6 %. In annual calculation in October growth of consumer expenses on 0,9 % is predicted. September annual growth of an indicator has made 1,5 %.

Department of the analytical information