Rus News Journal

Leaders of the market: Uralkaly can replace the owner

In first half of auctions of Thursday, on May, 27th, against raznonapravlennoj dynamics of the market ordinary actions of Open Society " became the leader of growth; Uralkaly . Dynamics worse the market was shown by ordinary actions of Open Society Gazprom .

Actions Uralkalija in the beginning of the auctions have risen in price almost for 7 %. By 13:30 Moscow time cost of papers of the company has flied up on 11,72 %. On Thursday there was an information that the owner Uralkalija Dmitry Rybolovlev searches for the buyer on a company controlling stock. as far as it is known Uralkaliju negotiations are at an early stage, and there are no guarantees that the agreement will be concluded. Conditions and the transaction scheme at the given stage also are not defined - it is marked in the company message.

an analyst the Capital Renaissance Marina Alekseenkova has specified, what not many Russian businessmen will have means for controlling interest purchase Uralkalija .

Current cost Uralkalija makes 7,7 mlrd dollars, it is very attractive active in the sector, the company also has a stable monetary stream, M.Alekseenkova has told. It will be natural, as she said, at its sale cost much more above.

shares of company Uralkaly since October 2009. Are under the pressure of a line of a descending trend (4). However in the beginning of May 2010. There was a sign event - papers have punched downwards a line of support 125 rbl. (3) and within a month were rolled away to the following sign mark - 95 rbl. (2). Here bulls have beaten off approach and have advanced to the attack - the rebound upwards has begun. Within the next few days quite possibly further increase of quotations to a mark 125 rbl. (3). To count on more essential growth it is not necessary, as in intermediate term prospect sellers will return to papers, and for them the mark 77 rbl. (1) becomes the most probable purpose.

Actions Gazprom in the beginning of the auctions have fallen in price more than on 2,5 %. By 13:30 Moscow time the falling most part has been won back, and it was reduced to 0,49 %. ING Bank has lowered a look-ahead stock value Gazprom on 33 % - to 3,95 dollars for the action. Besides, as it is informed in the bank review, for these papers the recommendation with " has been lowered; to hold to to sell .

Occurrence unconventional gas (gas from nonconventional sources) is serious risk for the export prices for the gas, adhered to cost of the oil, delivered Gazprom to Europe. It is long-term risk which as we believe, is not reflected yet in a stock value Gazprom - it is marked in the review.

meanwhile, analysts UBS consider actions of gas monopoly underestimated. we believe that papers Gazprom are underestimated, considering their negative dynamics, and also a number of positive short-term and intermediate term factors which at present are not put in the prices, - analysts mark. - moreover, the market exaggerates the descending potential Gazprom being based, possibly, on the biases caused by negative interpretation of a news background .

According to analysts UBS, the market does not realise presence of three factors reflecting improvement of a fundamental picture Gazprom . In - the first, during the current year the company reinvestment cycle will reach the peak in 30 mlrd dollars In - the second, long-term financial investments of the company have started to pay off. And at last, the changes brought in long-term contracts on conditions take - or - pay ( Take or pay ) Nevertheless allow to Gazprom monetizirovat production with the award to market prices. According to estimations UBS, even after decrease contract prices will exceed expected level spotovyh the prices on 22 - 58 %.

In the investment strategy Gazprom widely uses financing of projects. Analysts UBS consider that cooperation with skilled and reliable international partners can improve considerably control over the capital, reduce risk of failures at realisation of projects that will lead to increase of profitability of the capital (ROIC). In bank believe that the delay of working out of the Shtokmanovsky deposit is a good example of similar cooperation. And that is especially important, the object of investment makes profit. Analysts pay attention that in IV quarter 2009. Gazprom has received from company Sakhalin Energy 1,7 mlrd dollars

Analysts UBS have slightly lowered the look-ahead price of papers Gazprom (about 36,9 dollars to 36,6 dollars/ ADR) also have left the recommendation to buy without changes.

actions Gazprom since October 2009. Are in frameworks of the descending channel (2 - 4). On Tuesday, on May, 25th, papers have reached its bottom border and have gone upwards. However on a way papers have a difficult level of resistance - 160 rbl. (3). Hardly actions will overcome it from the first calling, and in the near future it is necessary to expect decrease renewal to level of support (2). Apparently, descending movement of actions will end only at achievement of level 132,5 rbl. (1).


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