The Russian economy grows faster worldOn Wednesday, on May, 26th, the United Nations Organization (United Nations) has raised the forecast of growth of world economy in 2010ã. To 3 %, in 2011ã. - to 3,2 %. We will remind, earlier, in January, department predicted that during the current year the global economy will grow only on 2,4 %. According to analysts, in world economy there is a technical rebound after falling on 2 % in 2009ã., but rates of restoration remain too weak and unequal in the different countries to compensate all losses suffered as a result of long economic recession.
Besides, in the United Nations have raised the forecast of growth of gross national product of Russia. According to experts of the organisation, in 2010ã. The economy of the Russian Federation will grow on 4,3 %, and in 2011 - on 3 %. In January of the United Nations predicted that growth of Russian gross national product during the current year will make 2,8 %.
it is necessary to notice that before May, 26th the forecast of growth of world economy in 2010ã. The Organization of economic cooperation and development (OESR) - from 3,4 % to 4,6 % has raised also, thus growth of gross national product of Russia too has been reconsidered towards increase - from 4,9 % to 5,5 %.
Before Ministry of economic development and trade of Russia informed that gross national product of the Russian Federation in January - April 2010ã. Has grown in annual calculation on 3,5 %, besides that in I quarter national economy has added only 2,9 % in comparison with the similar period 2009ã. According to experts of the ministry, it is necessary to raise the forecast of growth of gross national product on flowing year to 4,5 % that is even more conservative estimation, rather than expectations of the United Nations and OESR.
the Majority of analysts specifies that whereas growth of global economy practically directly is fastened on programs of the state stimulation, for Russia by the key factor of lifting there is a restoration of a consumer demand and the prices for energy carriers. So, the chief of analytical department IK “ Grandis the Capital “ Denis Barabanov believes that revision of the forecast of growth of gross national product of Russia is connected not only with rise in prices for raw materials which was especially appreciable in the beginning of year, but also with last macroeconomic data. According to the expert, it is especially important taking into account that state expenses do not increase any more, and anti-recessionary support remained in the past. “ internal demand starts to grow are show the data about import. Thus export too is confidently restored from the end of last year though it is clear that comparison while is spent with weak months 2009ã. Nevertheless it is impossible while to speak about a steady trend. We leave invariable our forecast of growth of gross national product during the current year at level of 3 %. This estimation looks now enough conservative, however we can reconsider it only in case of preservation of positive tendencies in economy of Russia. Too it is impossible to forget about risks of growth of world credit crisis. Primary factors for the Russian Federation - rise in prices for raw materials, capital inflow, growth of internal demand and increase in volumes of crediting “ - the expert summarised.
Dmitry Nazarkin from UK “ the Alpha - the Capital “ has in turn noticed that fundamental preconditions for growth of the Russian economy too remain positive. The western investment houses mark successes of the government of the country in struggle against inflation, unemployment and encourage large Russian investment projects. “ the forecast the MAYOR of growth of gross national product from the beginning of year was already reconsidered towards increase. By our estimations, increase in a total internal product of Russia following the results of 2010ã. Will make to 5 %. Support to domestic economy should render and comfortable levels of the price for oil: in intermediate term prospect depreciation of barrel of mark WTI below a mark 60 dollars are extremely improbable “ - the analyst speaks.
Partner UFG Wealth Management Oksana Kuchura has added that to major factors of growth - and first of all American - economy the superstimulating monetary policy is world. For developing countries, in particular Russia, we mean growth of internal investments, productivity and internal consumption. “ we predict world economy growth in 2010ã. On 4,5 %, and Russian - on 6 % “ - has concluded O.Kuchura.