Economists doubt that the factor " will be possible to neutralise Russia; almost recessions “ in the USA
Some easing of consumer inflation in first half of May has been apprehended by economists positively, but without special enthusiasm. On the one hand, it is possible to tell that fears from “ razmorozki “ the prices for socially significant foodstuff and services have not justified. Inflationary expectations of the population and business also at least have not amplified. On the other hand, the rise in prices in Russia, according to recently published given Rosstata, essentially advances a rise in prices in the developed European countries, thus that the last also test on themselves and a phenomenal rise in prices for oil, and at times apocalyptic forecasts of rise in price of the foodstuffs and approach of world hunger.
Besides, unlike winter holidays, in May consumer activity of Russians traditionally decreases from - for departures on summer residences and preparations for a season of holidays. In 2008 to it the factor of some easing of a consumer demand though as a whole it remains at high enough level, since the beginning of year was added also. It is necessary to notice also that, despite optimism of forecasts minekonomrazvitija, in I quarter 2008 rates housing and partly commercial building were essentially slowed down.
In particular, according to Rosstata, in I quarter 2008 it is placed in operation 110,3 thousand apartments by a total area of 10,2 million square metres that all for 7,8 percent more than in the corresponding period of previous year. In I quarter 2007 rate of a gain of housing construction by I quarter 2006 made 51,1 percent.
“ Given “ in April the industry has shown again that calculations on continuation of its intensive growth are shaky enough. However, the new government, judging by statements of prime minister Putin, does not intend to shelve neither struggle against inflation, nor stimulation of innovations and support of credit status of bank system. Therefore the trust element will be the main element of preservation the next months high business and consumer activity: from a new office in Russia by national tradition always wait for radical measures. And if they follow, the economy will keep high rates of increase, and inflation will fly lower, despite high level of expenses of the state and consumers.
Demand still keeps
Results of poll of the businessmen spent by the analytical centre at the government of Russia in I quarter 2008, testify as a whole to preservation of positive processes in sector of retail trade. In particular, the tendency to sales volume growth in natural expression, orders for delivery of the goods, expansion of assortment of the realised goods has proceeded, and also the situation with number of workers of trading firms has improved. At the same time, it is marked in research, intensity of positive tendencies in retail trade in I quarter 2008 in comparison with the similar period of last year was slowed down.
the Index of enterprise confidence characterising business activity of the organisations of retail trade, in the analyzed period in comparison with IV quarter 2007 has not changed and has made +11 percent that for 1 percent below value of an indicator in I quarter 2007. Most likely, in our opinion, dynamics easing roznitsy will proceed and in II quarter 2008.
According to the analytical centre, high business activity of the organisations of retail trade in I quarter 2008 was characterised by positive dynamics of sales volume in natural expression though intensity of growth of sales volume in relation to the similar period of 2007 was a little slowed down. The balance of estimations of change of an indicator in I quarter 2008 has made +10 percent against +14 percent in I quarter 2007 and +13 percent in IV quarter 2007.
it is less than Orders
less intensive, than in I quarter 2007, sales volume growth in natural expression has caused delay of growth of orders for delivery of the goods. Value of balance of estimations of an indicator in I quarter 2008 has made +15 percent that for 3 percent it is less, than in I quarter, and for 2 percent it is less, than in IV quarter 2007.
the Situation with warehouse stocks in trading organisations in I quarter 2008 remained enough stable. Essential changes in comparison both with last quarter, and to the similar period of 2007 has not occurred. A share of trading organisations, a stock rate at which it is characterised by businessmen as “ normal “ or adequate to demand, has made about 90 percent.
the assortment of the goods realised by the majority of trading organisations Has remained invariable concerning IV quarter 2007. In the organisations of retail trade where indicator changes are fixed, expansion of assortment of the goods though intensity of positive process was more low, than in I and IV quarters 2007 as a whole was observed.
the Greatest expansion of assortment of the goods was marked in trading organisations with one-day goods turnover to 5 thousand roubles.
high enough competition between the various organisations of retail trade Remains. According to heads of trading organisations, in I quarter 2008 the high competition from other organisations was noticed by 68 percent of trading firms that, however, for 4 percent it is less, than last quarter and in the similar period of 2007.
Thus, the governmental experts, in comparison with the similar period of last year mark relative density of the organisations with “ high “ by competitiveness it was reduced. As a whole enterprise estimations of competitive positions of trading firms in I quarter 2008 were distributed as follows: competitiveness of 15 percent of trading firms is characterised as “ high “ 70 - as “ average “ and 15 percent - as “ low “ Against 17,70 and 13 percent in the corresponding period of 2007. Simultaneously 30 percent of heads of trading organisations marked decrease in level of appropriate advertising, 29 percent (in I quarter 2007 - 26 percent) businessmen marked improvement of the competitive environment, and 19 percent of heads of the organisations of retail trade (in I quarter of last year - 17 percent) specified in reduction “ unfair “ a competition. The cited data of the governmental analytical centre as it was already told, testify to insignificant delay as a whole positive processes in retail trade in the beginning of 2008. In it a certain role the rise in prices for the consumer goods, noted in I quarter 2008 has played. Let`s add that these conclusions of official experts indirectly, truth, but korrespondirujut with results of tactical polls of industrial manufacturers transitional economy Institute (IEPP) (read in number " more in detail; Russian business - newspapers “ from May, 13th).
What wind from the West
Meanwhile the majority of the Russian economists doubt that Russia, as well as all world economy, completely will be possible manage the factor “ almost recessions “ in the USA. Easing of consumer trust in the USA will lead to that the largest world economy in 2008 will grow less than for one percent, is told in the research published on Friday spent by agency Rejter together with Michigan university.
As Rejter observed last years a prompt diversification of the American economy against globalisation informs has generated “ microrecessions “ with which the Federal reserve system still should struggle, the director of the centre of researches of consumer moods at Michigan university Richard Kertin considers. He has noticed that changes of rates of increase of gross national product in annual calculation and annual changes in the index of consumer moods made by Michigan university together with Rejter, show “ close conformity “. We will remind that in April the index of consumer moods of the USA has decreased the third month successively and has reached 26 - a summer minimum.
the Analysis of consumer moods and growth of gross national product of the USA has shown that “ the American economy in 2008 will extend less than for 1,0 percent “ Kertin writes. According to the expert, consumers are usually inclined to perceive so insignificant growth of economy as recession. “ even if it so, consumers were very right, having a presentiment of recession in economy “ - it is told in the report of Kertina.
we Will remind that gross national product of the USA in IV quarter 2007 has grown all for 0,6 percent. In I quarter 2008 the gain of the American economy remained at the same level.
liquidity Crisis recedes?
However liquidity crisis while recedes. The volume of consumer crediting in the USA in March, 2008 has increased on 15,29 billion dollars - to 2,558 trillion, having shown the most considerable growth since November of the past year, the Federal reserve system of the USA informs. Growth of consumer credits for 7,21 percent in annual calculation has exceeded expectations of analysts; Experts foretold interrogated Rejter that the March increase should make all 6 billion dollars.
In the May report FRS also has reconsidered towards increase the February data: month before volume of consumer credits has increased on 6,54 billion dollars instead of specified before 5,16 billion. If the April tendency remains, it will be possible to tell that the peak of mortgage crisis is overcome with the minimum losses and financial cataclysms are possible only from - for any snogshibatelnyh a swagger - major factors.
Nevertheless the United Nations have lowered the forecast of growth of world economy in 2008 to 1,8 percent. The main reason - predicted falling of gross national product of the USA for 0,2 percent. About it it is told in the report of the United Nations presented the day before in New York “ the World economic situation and prospects for 2008 “. In 2007 of world gross national product has grown for 3,8 percent, transfers panorama. ru after other news agencies.
Authors of the report underline again that proceeding financial crisis, falling of the American dollar and the growing prices for oil make “ serious danger to a world economy sustainable development forthcoming years “. “ the Situation remains to the extremely uncertain, therefore we have presented three scenarios for our new forecast “ - the assistant to the Secretary general of the United Nations concerning economic development of Dzhomo Sundaram speaks. The pessimistic scenario assumes reduction of gross national product of the USA in 2008 for 1,2 percent, optimistic - growth for 1 percent, and on the base scenario gross national product falling will make 0,2 percent.
Stagnation in the American economy will most of all mention the developed countries. Growth of gross national product of the EU countries in 2008 will be reduced to 1,1 about 2,6 percent in 2007, Japan - to 0,9 about 2,1 percent.
But problems of the developed countries least will concern “ Transitive economy “. Growth of their gross national product in 2008 “ will remain high enough “ however, under the base scenario in 2008 it will make only 5 percent (7,5 percent in 2007).
Restoration of economic growth to 0,2 percent in the USA of the United Nations predicts only in 2009, and together with it and increase in rates of increase of world economy to 2,1 percent.
Key parametres of the forecast on 2008 - 2011