The international experts have raised the forecast on growth of the Russian economy
Economic growth of Russia will soon surpass all expectations of the international experts. So affirms in a press - release to the next semi-annual report of the European bank of reconstruction and development (European Reconstruction and Development Bank).
Forecasts of economic growth of Russia have exceeded earlier made assumptions: it is expected that this year gross national product growth will make 7 percent. It should support a conjuncture in all region CIS, analysts, in particular at the expense of direct Russian investments and maintenance of level of the transfers made by workers - migrants consider. By the way, at minekonomrazvitija even more optimistical forecast: under last version of the ministry, gross national product growth this year will make 7,6 percent.
Despite obvious delay of rates of economic growth of the countries of Europe, in the report it is noticed that “ The majority of countries of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union remain marvellously unreceptive to the shocks observed in the world credit markets “. However the most important problem in region is decrease in rates of inflation which in many countries by the present moment is estimated in two-place figures. If inflation not to lower, it will be capable to cause raskruchivanie spirals of a rise in prices and salaries, change of rates of exchange and even to demand sharp measures in sphere monetary - the credit policy.
As a whole rates of development of the European region, under European Reconstruction and Development Bank forecasts, will make 4,7 percent that for 0,5 percent below an indicator appearing in its last forecast, published in November of last year. It is connected first of all with delay of export deliveries in the eurozone countries, and most strongly Hungary, Latvia and Estonia can suffer from it. The forecast of growth of gross national product of Ukraine in 2008 - with 6 to 5,5 percent, Kazakhstan - with 8,5 to 5,1 percent is thus considerably worsened. Less all in calculations of experts of the European Reconstruction and Development Bank “ has carried “ to Tajikistan. By their calculations, the country which has suffered from cold winter will lower growth of gross national product with 9 to 4,1 percent.
it is necessary to do Conclusions in the most prompt image, for “ the growing unwillingness of the international investors to run risks puts a number of the problems which bright example is failure with releases of the international bonded loans for banks of Kazakhstan “ it is told in a press - European Reconstruction and Development Bank release. After all intensity preservation in the western financial markets threatens to cause sharper reduction of inflow of the capital in the European region, and it, in turn, can prevent satisfaction of requirements of some Baltic States and Jugo - the Eastern Europe in external financing. Experts of the European Reconstruction and Development Bank notice also that the central banks of many states insufficiently quickly react to change of an economic situation, thereby it is not enough working on inflation bridling.
Thus “ disorder of indicators “ economic growth in region will increase. In short-term prospect in the best position as it is supposed, there will be exporters of raw materials or the countries which are not postponing acceptance of necessary anti-inflationary measures.
In the meantime
Yesterday Board of governors of the European bank of reconstruction and development has appointed Thomas Mirova (Germany) the president of bank. It becomes the fifth under the account the president of the European Reconstruction and Development Bank and will replace on Jean Lemera`s this post which retires, having stayed in this post two four-year terms, transfers Interfax.