Rus News Journal

Experts predict a fast collapse of the market of habitation

Experts of Institute of globalisation and social movements (IGSO) consider that the habitation market in Russia can fall till the end of 2008, thus falling of the prices can make 50 percent from existing level.

To such conclusion they have come, having studied a situation in the world financial markets. The main reason of possible falling of the prices for habitation - reduction of real incomes of the population from - for inflations. Thus inflation has affected not only the poorest levels of population, but also has essentially worsened position of the middle class, first of all having complicated for them payment of mortgage loans.

Today the habitation market stagniruet, to the beginning of summer it in general has stood, however, this phenomenon seasonal. However some experts, having analysed prospects of this calm, predict a collapse of the market and depreciation of apartments for 30 percent.

Not a secret that the prices for habitation in Moscow depend not on its real cost price, and from speculative actions. Today a share investment apartments in a sentence structure of Moscow makes about 30 percent (basically it is objects business - a class which belong to corporations).

the Speculative prices for real estate remain with support of the state bureaucracy protecting the large companies connected with it. Along with high cost of houses and apartments in Russia there is extremely overestimated annual percent. Obtaining loans under 3 - 5 percent, domestic banks finance the population under multiply increased rate (to 25 percent) and often fine for premature repayment of a debt.

the Overall objective of speculators is the rise in prices which is stimulated in several ways, first of all with creation of illusion of an excessive demand through mass-media. The further rise in prices warm up And purchases of investment habitation, it is artificial increasing demand.

the Dead season in the market of the Russian real estate - only a faint echo of world mortgage crisis which started last year in the USA. Americans have typed so much credits that banks could not provide them with sale of mortgaging property. The prices for habitation sharply have gone downwards. Year after the same scenario expects also Russia - only in much softer variant and with the national features.

the Main precondition of that cost of square metre will decrease, - absence of the buyer. And there is no it because there is no mortgage. The reason of reduction by mortgage banks - absence of long cheap money.

If to buy there is nobody, also the price cannot grow. By estimations of analysts, the offer in the real estate market has considerably grown and became more various. For example, rare one-room apartments in new buildings can be bought without turn. But they became cheaper not.

Despite such adverse situation, rieltory do not hasten to force down the price in the market. Habitation - the goods not perishable therefore its builders and sellers prefer some time to wait and not dempingovat. Thus sitting on the furnace will escape punishment not all to the building companies, after all the majority of them live at the expense of credits. But here paradox - rieltory prefer to declare better bankrupts, than to lower cost of apartments. This phenomenon speaks that depreciation for 20 percent will not lead to increase in demand at the same of 20 percent. Demand will increase on 2 - 3 percent, no more, builders are all understand.

According to experts, now players of the market try to avoid sharp movements both towards increase, and towards price fall. All wait for winter then, probably, rates of inflation will be slowed down.

To winter of 2008 the volume of mortgage transactions in the Russian Federation can exceed 30 billion dollars.