The alcohol market changes structure
last months in the alcohol market the interesting phenomenon - decrease in sales of alcoholic drinks in a money`s worth was observed. Our correspondent has addressed for a situation explanation to the director of the Center of researches federal and the regional markets of alcohol “ TSIFRRA “ to Vadim Drobizu.
- That occurs in the market? Really at us began to drink less?
- it is unequivocal that Russia did not begin to drink less, but at the same time already in first half of 2008 appreciable decrease in number of consumers on the average a price alcoholic segment (from 100 to 200 roubles - both vodka, and wine) has begun. Growth of inflation and decrease in a standard of living of group conditional " became the reasons; middle class “. Last years (2003 - 2007) this group was actively formed. There was a redistribution of consumption of legal vodka: With 2004 for 2007 at constant volume of the legal market of vodka the segment of vodka from 100 to 200 roubles has grown four times.
At the same time in 2008 (before crisis) at reduction of sales in a segment from 100 to 200 roubles growth of sales in a bonus segment (more expensively 200 roubles) proceeded. Sales of illegal, forged and substitute production actively grew In a segment to 100 roubles in 2007 and 2008, and legal - were reduced.
the overflowing of demand of consumers on cheaper alcoholic production Today proceeds. Besides, sales of expensive alcohol were reduced. Alcohol sales at restaurants and bars were reduced - the consumer does not want to pay the restaurant margin in 350 - 450 percent.
- That will make branch in the conditions of crisis if it is tightened for years?
- I Think, in the world consumption of strong alcohol and cheap alcohol as a whole will grow, but will not fall considerably and sales of the most expensive alcohol. And here wine consumption in the world will decrease. Blow is put on the average consumer both in the world, and in Russia - that is there will be a further stratification of an average segment of consumption. Growth of national consciousness and national cultures in the states, and as consequence - growth of consumption of national alcoholic drinks is probable.
the Enterprises have lost the credit lever. The large and average private companies start to understand: it should either be on sale foreigners, or to go shares with the state (at federal or regional level); or to join structure versatile, diversifitsirovannyh and that of the protected holdings, or to search for other way of work on own working capital.
Further, I believe, there will be a reduction of number of participants of the alcoholic market. The number of the companies can be reduced to 25 percent and more. Crisis will lead to variety decline for today of the large companies.
activization of the western large alcoholic corporations in our market in the conditions of reduction in price of our alcoholic companies and brands At the same time is possible.
growth of manufacture of legal and illegal vodka in crisis on 10 - 15 percent is Thus obvious; the termination of prompt growth konjachnogo manufactures; some growth of manufacture of cheap wine to 100 roubles. Interest to decent Russian wines within 170 roubles for a bottle will grow; will stop the growth and manufacture of champagnes and sparkling wines is stabilised; the share of vodka will increase in group of vodka and likero - vodka products to 91 percent at decrease in consumption of products by a fortress below 25 percent, the share of strong domestic bitter tinctures will grow.
- the President of Russia has signed on December, 31st last year the Decree about creation of Federal Agency of regulation of the alcoholic market. How participants of the market regard this innovation?
- It becomes clear that the state would like to take over the control now both legal, and illegal financial alcoholic streams.
There are some the major positions in the decree:
- the service is “ under the government “ (the direct decision of questions and direct demand for results);
- the service is engaged in legislative regulation on federal and on regional levels (that is on it there will be political problems of closing and opening of the markets - a question “ regional separatism “ and problems of lobbying of interests of the federal companies on penetration on the regional markets);
- territorialnost services (its regional coverage), in regions will be created territorial bodies;
- the service is formed for development and realisation of a state policy and is standard - legal regulation in sphere of manufacture and a turn of ethyl spirit, alcoholic and spirtosoderzhashchej production.
Thus it is improbable that the state monopoly in the alcoholic market on manufacture and an alcohol turn becomes the purpose of the given policy. The establishment of monopoly for control over the legal and illegal alcoholic finance will be the policy purpose.
functions are assigned To service on control over manufacture and a turn of ethyl spirit, alcoholic and spirtsoderzhashchej production (the service should know all and, in our opinion, directly regulate legal and illegal manufacture in Russia; someone has apprehended recently as a joke our offer on necessity to enter kvotirovanie on maintenance - manufacture of illegal vodka for each region of Russia; Actually it would be very reasonable and correct and for maintenance of the local manufacturer, and for replacement of another`s illegal vodka from regions at the initial stage). Each region should make itself quantity of illegal qualitative factory vodka necessary for it for maintenance of needy region, calculate this quantity for each region simply. But all will be under control. Today it is difficult to assume, whether simultaneous occurrence of the decree about creation of our service and hit in the list of the backbone companies of Russia " became casual; Rosspirtproma “. An intrigue remains - whether becomes “ Rosspirtprom “ base for Federal Agency creation? The second intrigue - who will head department?
- the Uniform state automated information system (EGAIS), intended for automation of the state control over volume of output and a turn of ethyl spirit while works in a test mode what will be with the market when the system will earn on full power?
- EGAIS has no relation to readiness or unavailability of the alcoholic market. This state, instead of the market is not ready to introduce this system. The market and so carries out all wishes of the state.
Idea EGAIS - to close all information on alcohol within the limits of one system. Very beautifully on schemes, but practically also it is technically impracticable. While there is no possibility “ to insert “ in this system each shop selling alcohol in Russia.
Therefore the system has started to be transformed on the move gradually - from it have cleaned wholesale trade. For today in it there is an information on manufacture and spirit and alcohol import. But to use this information while there is nobody.
the Automated control is necessary in the alcoholic market. Here there will be a Federal Agency, and the information from EGAIS is required to it, as in Russia there is no today an exact alcoholic statistics. And concerning when the system will earn to the full, I in the beginning of 2006 (when it introduced) have told that is necessary not less than five years. Today I would move input term for later period, at least for three years.