Georgia will consult itself
- Till now at Russia is not present while the uniform accurate policy in relation to Georgia. Positions of the President of Russia and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs are constructive and liberal, sustained in the spirit of the times and directed on improvement of relations between Moscow and Tbilisi. The relation of the Minister of Defence and the Joint Staff more conservatively.
the Basic painful point is a dispute on destiny of two Russian bases in territory of Georgia. As it is known, according to the Istanbul agreements 1999 Russia has deduced two bases till June, 1st, 2001. Two remained should be liquidated till 2007. Russia insists that for this purpose it is necessary 10 - 11 years that formally does not contradict earlier reached arrangements.
But it does not suit Georgia: after all the Russian bases interfere with the introduction of Tbilisi into the NATO. It is natural that Moscow will brake in every possible way similar process. But will make it difficult. It is necessary to remember that Russia has secured with promises of the CIS countries including Georgia that the former Russian bases will not be passed in the NATO order. A number of other serious problems is not solved also. In particular, a situation in the Pankissky gorge where there are Chechen bandit groups.
As to Georgian - adzharskogo the conflict the main thing here is economic dispute. Though strongly pronounced and the conflict of two generations. The president of Georgia Michael Saakashvili represents the new westernized forces more formed, more flexible, responding new realities. And head Adzharii Abashidze is a representative of old guards, with a feudalism musty smell. From the very beginning this conflict has been doomed on “ dolgozhitelstvo “. I think that any time two leaders will get used to each other. Georgia can solve this problem during 1 - 1,5 years. Adzharii will give the highest degree of an autonomy within the limits of Georgia. As far as I know, the mechanism of work of an autonomy is now developed. It is assured that the same will be and in Abkhazia, and South Ossetia.
But if Abashidze does not go on certain concessions of Tbilisi the power variant is not excluded also. Though I do not think that it will be used. Abashidze - the wise politician also will want to remain in the history as the person who has not admitted bloodsheds. Eventually it will give in, having received from Tbilisi certain guarantees. After all leader Adzharii fine understands: other people have come, new times have come.
Georgia itself can cope adzharskoj with a problem, unaided from the outside. If Russia interferes with this conflict the power structures it can lead to catastrophic consequences. It is necessary to make only the weighed decisions.