Experts actively discuss a theme of the second wave of bank crisis
On the eve of opening of Sankt - the Petersburg international economic forum on which special day for discussions on financial problems is provided, experts continue to discuss actively a theme of the second wave of bank crisis. It will be faster, than is not present.
To such conclusion the Russian economists - participants of club " have come; crisis Examination “. And in Russia the quantity of the credit organisations can sharply be reduced. Yesterday these fears were partly confirmed also with the international rating agency Moody`s. According to its experts, special difficulties expect small banks.
the Reason of fears - growing debts of borrowers. “ credits actually cease to bring to banks money “ - the senior teacher of the Higher school of economy Evgenie Nadorshin has explained, having reminded last given Agencies on insurance of contributions about 20 - percentage delay to which the bank system comes nearer.
It was supported by the head of Economic expert group Evsej Gurvich who does not arrange “ the insufficient formulation “ sounded one month ago a management of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance. It was a question that in case “ bad debts “ will cross critical line for bank system in 10 - 20 percent in the budget on it means are reserved. “ more detailed plan is necessary, - Gurvich has called. - today one reservation of means for payment “ bad debts “ it is not enough “.
we Will remind to cope with a debt problem, bankers offered with support of the state and private investors to create special fund for the repayment “ bad actives “. But one month ago the first vitse - prime minister Igor Shuvalov has declared that such fund does not plan while to create the government. Banks have taken a signal into consideration. In detail about them “ secrets “ one of participants of club " recently told; crisis Examination “ eks - the head of Federal Agency of the financial markets, trustee RSPP Oleg Vjugin.
As he said, banks have started to solve problems of credit debts in the nonconventional way. Including “ to hide “ their real volumes.
According to Vjugin, today there were three models of behaviour of bankers on management of problem debts of clients. One group of banks tries not “ to shine “ in the official reporting before the Central Bank delay level not to lose level of obligatory reserves. In this case, according to Vjugin, banks go on different schemes “ preferential “ refinancings of loans. Some to take from the client “ though wool a shred “ Prolong credits. Ostensibly extinguish them, but in exchange make out new, but under lower interest rates.
the Second group of banks chooses commercial strategy and not bad earns on debtors in the course of re-structuring of their debts. Thus bankers force borrowers to pay much bigger percent, than on earlier taken credit, conclude transactions on occurrence in their capital. And also promote merges and absorption absolutely hopeless, renew contracts with more impressive pledges up to “ all personal property “. But banks direct profit on this activity on maintenance of the obligatory reserves.
the Third, most aggressive group, shares supervision Vjugin, does not hesitate of growth of unsettled debts and their write-offs. They from those who “ koshmarit “ debtors from - for “ one delayed rouble “. Thus in a course immediately “ go “ courts and bankruptcies. The purpose - to take away cheap actives of the debtor, to translate them on fresh firms, to wait crisis, and then to sell at the favourable prices. As a rule, banks which are in structure financially - industrial groups concern this category.
Vjugin, truth, did not begin to name concrete banks from these three groups and has not resulted statistics, in what of them “ especially populously “. But has assumed that banks which differ softness with clients, - the first candidates “ on a departure “ if suddenly “ rvanet “ the second wave of crisis. Meanwhile, answering a question of journalists, it is good or bad for the market if the quantity of banks in Russia decreases, Evsej Gurvich has told: “ the Essence not that will be less banks, and that remains more than healthy banks “. Such tendency, in its opinion, even is positive for bank system. As to investors at possible compression of the bank market - merges and absorption - they will be protected by the system of insurance of contributions created in Russia.
much more strongly the expert is excited with another. Investors and banks will not put up money in manufacture, yet will not understand, in what branches demand will start to be restored earlier. “ This uncertainty - one of the main obstacles for bank crediting “ - Gurvich has told. He has noticed also that the Russian economy already and at the bottom, but it does not exclude the further deterioration of a situation. “ balance is at the bottom very unstable - it can wavy change both in one, and in other party “ - the expert has added. The rector of Academy of national economy Vladimir Mau has considered it necessary to correct the colleague. He considers that the theme of the second wave - is faster philosophical and hypothetical as scales and depth of crisis on - former up to the end does not realise neither the world, nor Russia.
“ It is necessary to understand definitively with the first wave “ - the head of Association of Russian banks Garegin Tosunjan has urged economists not to force passion. As he said, the state has quite successfully solved problems with bank liquidity, population contributions, having increased the size of indemnification under deposits of citizens to 700 thousand roubles. Remains “ it is not enough “ - to solve a problem of crediting of economy and high interest rates. And with it, according to head ARB, it is quite possible to understand. And if so it is possible to forget about the second wave of crisis. As the basic tool of a solution of a problem of Tosunjan offers the financial authorities “ to work over market expectations “ and “ to torpedo “ the percentage policy towards reduction in price. If the rate manages to be lowered to 10 - 8 percent economy crediting will quicken. As to accumulation by banks “ bad debts “ Which growth, by the way, Tosunjan did not begin to deny, he hopes that the state eventually nevertheless will respond to idea of bankers to redeem them.
While, Oleg Vjugin considers, the Central Bank tries “ to understand a situation “ with final volumes of write-offs of debts: “ Most likely, by July it becomes clear, whether government intervention in the decision of this problem " is required;.