Analysts: Prospects of strengthening of rouble are equal to prospects of its easing
For a week, c 25 on May, 29th, the dollar official rate has decreased for 22 copecks, to 30,98 roubles. The euro official rate has fallen for a week for 8 copecks, to level 43,38 roubles. Following the results of May the dollar exchange rate has decreased to rouble on 6,8 %; it is the maximum monthly growth of dollar from 1995.
dollar Falling on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange, proceeding seven weeks on end, has resulted an US dollar exchange rate on a minimum for 4,5 months. The rouble thus continued to become stronger against record growth of oil and stock markets. Its growth in relation to bivaljutnoj to a basket, the indicator of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, including $0,55 and EUR 0,45, has made since February more than 15 %. The bivaljutnaja basket has fallen to level 36,5 roubles, on 15 - 20 copecks for a week.
rouble Strengthening speaks first of all a rise in prices for oil. Futures WTI have risen to the beginning of June to $67 for barrel, to a maximum of 7 months. Rouble strengthening was promoted also growth in stock markets, by achievement by indexes of RTS and the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange of levels of maxima from the beginning of year.
the Dollar during a week remained under pressure and in market Forex: the American currency decreased in relation to the majority of appreciable world currencies, first of all to euro. The euro on Friday has increased rate of increase and has risen above $1,41, having updated a maximum from the beginning of year. Falling of dollar and euro growth were promoted by improvement of dynamics of the global markets of the capital.
At the same time representatives of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation prefer to make comments carefully on a situation, noticing that prospects of strengthening of rouble are equal to prospects of its easing. The head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Sergey Ignatyev on Wednesday has informed that if the rouble exchange rate to dollar will fall below 30 rbl. for $1 it will cause some alarm of the Central Bank. It becomes “ a signal that all to consider, weigh and analyse “ S.Ignatyev has told. Thus he has confirmed intention of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to keep cost top level bivaljutnoj baskets at level 41 roubles.
the Dollar can be corrected upwards in the beginning of June, having returned to level 31 roubles and a little above while the euro exchange rate can fall to 43 roubles, experts of Finmarket consider.
Experts believe that dollar, remaining within the limits of an intermediate term descending trend, can be corrected upwards in market Forex against correctional moods which can appear in the global markets in the beginning of June. The essential part of investors can prefer to fix a part of profit with the beginning of summer, it will lead to an exit from speculative actives and to their decrease. In particular, decrease (to $60 for barrel, probably, more low) the prices for oil is rather probable.
On this background are possible a depreciation suspension bivaljutnoj baskets which is expected experts during a week in a range 36,4 - 36,8 roubles, and also correctional decrease in an euro exchange rate on Forex to $1,35 - 1,4.