The negative forecast of credit status of regions
the General economic recession in Russia is published negative impact on credit status of local and regional authorities will make - such forecast contains in the special report of rating agency Fitch. That, finally, will influence ratings. However, experts of agency explain, influence degree will differ.
First of all, strengthening of pressure upon ratings threatens regions which have a high share of short-term obligations, and accordingly refinancing of large single repayments during the current year, the director in analytical group under the international regional finance Vladimir Redkin marks. Thus, according to experts credit rating actions concerning those regions which will show poor quality of management, most likely, will be made. The main signal begins to correct inability of the authorities budgetary expenses taking into account decrease in incomes that will lead, finally, to deterioration of the general credit quality of emitters.
Expectations of experts of agency concerning reduction of tax revenues, in particular from the profit tax for 35 percent in the first quarter of current year, have proved to be true. We will notice that approximately such forecast in the beginning of year has given the Russian Ministry of Finance, having counted up that, by modest estimations, regional budgets will lose an order 700 - 800 billion roubles. Thus experts of agency in quality polozhitel ache dynamics mark rather stable receipt from the tax to incomes of physical persons. It also an important source of budgetary incomes, truth, not so regional, and local.
in the financial markets and deficiency of financial resources some problems with refinancing can create liquidity Decrease. Especially, mark in the Ministry of Finance, release of bonds was a quite good profitable source earlier. In present conditions regional bonds will be in demand hardly from bank system as liquidities becomes ever less. Therefore refinansirovat former debts, most likely, it becomes impossible. So in November - December of last year variety of regions planned placing of bonds in the market, but and could not make it. In the beginning of current year to place bonds it was possible only in Moscow, other regions have not dared to take this step at all. Banks refuse to put up today money in such tools.
Thereupon, considers Fitch, the basic supporting factors which can help to compensate potential volatilnost tax incomes and requirement for refinancing, can become only financial help from the federal budget and adequate administrative decisions. The agency notices that long-term economic stagnation in Russia can lead to easing of tax indicators and potential reduction of federal support for regions. That, finally, can is even stronger worsen budgetary indicators of subjects and lower ratings to regions.
As to the financial help from the centre the position of the Ministry of Finance is unequivocal. The help in that volume which has been planned for current year, will be made. The only thing, the source in department to the correspondent " has noted; RBG “ - the lion`s share of budgetary credits and transfers is necessary for the third and fourth quarters of current year. And, it has explained, in the first quarter financing practically did not go, from - for that that corresponding amendments to the budget for 2009 have not been approved. Thus in the Ministry of Finance do not deny possibility of that concerning some regions external management if the situation worsens will be entered. Over introduction of corresponding mechanisms in department now actively work, summarised a source.