Sergey Karaganov: With present the NATO it is necessary to be more rigidly
last week session of Council of the NATO at level of Ministers for Foreign Affairs has taken place. On it two questions, concerning the Russian interests were discussed, in particular.
the NATO has not given to Georgia and Ukraine the promised Programs of actions on membership (PDCH). Formally such program should be given the countries - to the future members of an alliance.
For rescue of the person of the American sponsors of membership of Ukraine and Georgia two countries as it has been declared, will prepare under individual plans within the limits of the bilateral commissions with an alliance.
Before the last session the American diplomacy undertook feverish efforts to avoid obvious defeat, declaring that membership is possible and without PDCH. Referred thus to the first wave of expansion when PDCH was not. Europeans - Italians, Frenchmen and especially Germans - have rigidly opposed similar roundabout maneuver.
As a result the compromise also has turned out. “ a steam skating rink “ NATO expansions it is stopped. But Americans and their clients in Europe still had possibilities to press in favour of expansion renewal. And they will be used. The foreign policy wing of new administration of the USA consists of people more flexible and qualified, but not different age and outlook from those who leaves. The old agenda which has come in many respects from “ cold war “ will remain. Let and in a little softened variant.
Simultaneously session of Council of the NATO has declared readiness to “ gradual and with conditions “ To renewal of dialogue in the area of Council Russia - the NATO, interrupted to show displeasure apropos at first the Russian aggression, and now when truth left on a surface and it was found out that has launched war all - taki Tbilisi, - apropos “ excessive measures “ undertaken by Russia in the answer. It is possible and is necessary to state satisfaction because firm, even rigid counteraction of Russia at last has taken effect also the car has stopped.
But questions remain. Main of them - expansion possibility to Ukraine - remains and will poison political conditions in Europe, to be used as the tool of pressure upon Russia, on old Europeans to continue to sow suspiciousness and mistrust in Europe, to disturb to natural rapprochement of Russia and the EU countries.
In the given context me not so excite Georgia and possibilities of expansion of the NATO on it. The probability is insignificant. And even if the NATO also will accept Georgia - whoever of rules it, if only rules. Without such management from the outside it will remain destabilizatorom Transcaucasia.
NATO Expansion to Ukraine to which Washington and the group focused on him round the present Ukrainian president aspires, threatens first class military - political crisis which not only will make Ukrainians political gun meat, but also the heavy damage and Europe, both Russia, and the international stability will cause.
And thereupon ourselves need to be defined, what policy to spend concerning the NATO, instead of it is simple with gratitude to shake given a hand.
Thus it is necessary to remember following circumstances.
the First. Over the last ten years the NATO from a defensive alliance has turned to classical, quite offensive union. It has made aggression against Yugoslavia, nowadays conducts offensive war in Afghanistan (truth, from our consent and even with support). The leader of an alliance of the USA with support of its many members has made under a false pretext an attack to Iraq, led to monstrous victims. poluofitsialno voices about giving of the NATO of power measurement - power providing of access to resources in territory of other countries are distributed.
the Second. During the last years the NATO, having involved in itself the countries, whose elite aspires to a historical revenge for the failures and defeats of the last centuries, became much more Antirussian. And these countries, having received a NATO roof, began to spend rather often more extreme line. The NATO did not threaten and could not threaten seriously in years “ cold war “. It is Militarily incapable to threaten and now. But growth of the Antirussian potential in it to us to consider all - taki it is necessary.
the third. Thanks to constant expansion activity of the NATO became the basic source of revival of mistrust in Europe, anyway in relations with Russia. Having remained and without having changed almost, despite statements for the return, after “ cold war “ the NATO began to revive predictedly its phantoms in Europe.
the Fourth. Activity of Council Russia - the NATO has basically ostentatious character. It is not enough real advantage of it. Cooperation there where it is useful for us, for example, in Afghanistan, it is possible to carry out and out of Council. As occurred last months. Council has been thought up in 1997 to sweeten Russia a pill of the first wave of expansion and legitimizirovat expansion. We not only have helped the last in days of the weakness and nonsense, having signed the shameful Basic certificate Russia - the NATO in 1997 and having created Council, we have helped the NATO once again in 1999, having persuaded Milosevic to surrender and having prevented seeming inevitable land intrusion. And inevitable in this case political defeat of the union in Yugoslavia. Whether
It is necessary for us to continue to help an alliance visibility of maintenance with it of correct relations? Perhaps, also it is necessary. The Patched-up peace is always better than quarrel. Perhaps, dialogue continuation expediently and to have possibility to interrupt it in case of movement renewal to expansion. And, anyway, continuations of dialogue want the country with which we closely co-operate also which we trust, for example Germany. But thus it is necessary to realise accurately that the NATO official dialogue with Russia is necessary in times more than to us.
Therefore Moscow, instead of Bruxelles, should cause cooperation renewal, for example, nerasshireniem the NATO and signing of the new all-European contract on collective safety of all countries - from Vancouver to Vladivostok. The present North Atlantic contract can be its basis even. And Russia can enter into the NATO basically. I crafty called for it 17 more - 18 years ago. But then it will be another the NATO. And from the present it is necessary to be more rigid not to admit returning to Europe opposition and enmity.