Nikolay Zlobin: Experience of the permission of such crises is not present at anybody
the Expiring year it has appeared rich on events of the global value which consequences will define still for a long time a direction and character of the international development. Certainly, greatest influence will render an economic crisis which anyhow will mention everyone, without an exception, the country, each enterprise or the organisation, and also sooner or later will affect life of each inhabitant of the Earth. Coming year will be the most difficult economically for some last decades. And heavy it will be for everything, silent national creeks of calmness against storming economic ocean anywhere will not be.
We at all do not know, the next year in the economic plan for present crisis has unique characteristics and features which were not shown earlier will be how much heavy. It is the first deep economic crisis which carries on - to the present the world character and is in many respects the answer of the international economy to processes of globalisation which have captured all spheres of ability to live of the world community last decade. Experience of the permission of such crises is not present at anybody as there are no also guarantees that the traditional methods applied by the USA and the countries of the West for the permission of the cyclic economic crises, will by all means work. But if will work, with what efficiency? How they will work in nerynochnyh or in economy of catching up type, not past of modernisation what economy of Russia and all Euroasian states are, for example?
2008 remains in memory as year of November acts of terrorism in the financial centre of India the city of Mumbai which not only have carried away lives more than 170 persons, but also have really brought the world to the possible military conflict between India and Pakistan which for certain would turn back attempt of use of the nuclear weapon. We know more not enough about these events, but one it is possible to tell for certain - this blow will reject India in financially - the economic plan far back, will create problems for its economy and the international business image, will even more brake economic development not only all Asia, but also world economy as a whole. Much will depend now on how the Indian authorities will react on happened that they will undertake to prevent repetition of similar attack. However exaggeration will not tell that this terrorist blow on business centre of huge Asian power quite is similar to what has had on September, 11th, 2001 to the USA. It is possible not to be surprised, if November events of this year change India as deeply as the USA after that tragedy have changed.
Today say that financial and political influence is more and more displaced from the West on the East. There capitals and rates of the economic development, new technologies and financial structures gradually move. 2008 became indicative in this sense. Many believe that after money from the West on the East political influence will move also. The international centres of force not only actively will start to be formed in the east, but also to become competitors I Will sink down, gradually surpassing it in the possibilities and potential. A number of experts believes that the USA and the Western Europe will lose a considerable part of the power, and their forces will not suffice any more on new global projects and attractive models. Henceforth these models and global initiatives begin to come from the East.
In what political registration these will come “ not western “ the economic and geopolitical models, they will be accompanied by what political and ideological ornaments? What will come in the stead of principles of the western democracy imposed today, slogans about human rights and freedom of the press, domination of the law and equality of all citizens before it by which the western geopolitical projects and from which today many in the world, including in Eurasia were actively accompanied last decades, aspire to get rid in every way? What exactly so attractive and modern the East can win lagging behind in eyes and minds of many people America and all West?
As the world operated from the East, will resist to the international terrorism often appearing in shape of extreme expression of some political values and traditions of this East? The Catholic and democratic West needed in due time centuries to bridle own radicals and any extremists, but to win them completely and it was not possible till now. After attack to the USA Osama bin Laden has publicly declared that its purpose was to change bases of the world order spread by artful America. It was possible to it, the world order before our eyes becomes another. But what? The best, stabler both predicted? More fair and effective? 2008 of the answer to these questions has not given. Whether will give 2009 the answer?
the Expiring year will be remembered also by definitive crash jaltinsko - the Potsdam system of the international relations which have developed after the Second World War. The crash begun by association of Germany and disintegration of the USSR, has come to the end with declaration of independence of Kosovo in February and a recognition Russia independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The USA and the West already spoke for a long time about necessity of revision of the international system and international law corresponding to it which had the time. The new understanding of realities Was required, but Moscow to the last kept for preservation of a post-war peace arrangement. Attempt of Georgia by military methods to restore the territorial integrity has put Moscow before an uneasy choice. As it is known, Russia has as a result gone on much more radical, than the USA to Kosovo, steps on Southern caucasus, recognising Abkhazia and South Ossetia unilaterally. Today in the world does not remain influential defenders of an old world order. Per 2009 we enter in the conditions of absence of the developed rules of conducting the international affairs, and only the future will answer on a question, it is good or it is bad.
At last, 2008 was marked by historical presidential election in America superinfluential, speaking to Dmitry Medvedev`s words, the country where struggle for the White house the representative afroamerikanskogo has won minority. This result began attempt of America to get out of deadlock to which it has got last years, reaction to national inquiry to refusal of attempts to reanimate political both economic rejganizm and foreign policy neoconservatism, and to pass to search of new American model of management and other positioning of the USA on international scene. In the world these elections personified hope that America will refuse attempts of domination and will pass to a competition to other centres of force for a role of the international leader. At midday on January, 20th, 2009 Barack Obama will enter duties of the US president, and we will start to understand, these expectations in what it is necessary to be disappointed were how much defensible.
2008 remains in the history as year which has put many questions before the world community, has laid the foundation for many processes with not clear prospects, has disappointed, has partly encouraged. But hardly somebody will remember it as successful year in world community life.
At least so it sees to me from Washington.
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