For that to wait from the power?
“ What further? “ On this difficult question interesting not only politicians, economists and representatives of the business world, by the next Monday can be given more or less certain answer. By February, 7th, according to the order of the prime minister, documents which will define economic policy of the Russian government for forthcoming year should be prepared, and is possible, and on more remote prospect: the report of Ministry of Economics on state of the economy of Russia in 1993 and prospects of its development for 1994, the concept of the federal budget the next year, the analysis of a course of performance of the governmental program accepted still in August “ Development of reforms and stabilisation of the Russian economy “. They will make documentary base of the session of the government of the country planned for February, 17th in which agenda there will be only one question - “ About position of the Russian economy and prospects of its development for 1994 “.
However the greatest interest represent not so much these materials, how many the project of the report which prepares for the specified term the device of the first vitse - prime minister Oleg Soskovets. Its orientation will define also character of the decision which project also prepares Soskovets`s device.
as a matter of fact, forthcoming seven days it becomes clear, whether there will be a cardinal turn in economic policy of the government of Russia. In passed days off work on the analytical report with offers on modification of an existing economic course participation in which have accepted representatives of ten economic institutes (see p. 3) has been finished. From in what degree experts the governments expecting from economists - theorists of the alternative concept of an economic reform, use these offers by preparation of performance of the prime minister, and depends, how much sharply there will be this turn and whether there will be it in general.
Nevertheless already it is now clear that the considerable part from the offered measures will be included in the project. Experts of the government thus proceed first of all from necessity of entering of corrective amendments for the industrial policy which has become “ the stepdaughter “ financial stabilisation, - a core of formally current program “ Development of reforms and stabilisation of the Russian economy “ a main role in which working out the Ministry of Finance headed at that time by Boris Fedorovym has played. Almost 50 - percentage falling of industrial production since 1989, given to a number of independent experts of the grounds for comparison of present economic recession in Russia with “ Great depression “ 1929 - 1933 in the West, besides obvious threat of growth of unemployment bears also prospect of narrowing of investment market capacity in connection with rupture of variety of technological chains from - for consecutive stops of manufacture. In these cases as considers one of independent experts of the Ministry of Economics, “ it is possible to speak already about irreversible deindustrializatsii “. In its opinion, forthcoming year will define, on what way the country will go: whether begins to be guided by the model assuming occurrence in system mirohozjajstvennyh of communications on narrow sectors of the raw market (as, for example, Australia), or will try to affirm and as the manufacturer of an industrial output of higher degree of processing. According to the representative of one private research centre, the probability of realisation of this or that model makes approximately 60 to 40 how the government will solve a problem of investments. In the event that it will firmly adhere to a principle “ not inflationary economic growth “ as the adviser gajdarovskogo in due time declared the governments Alexey Uljukaev, the probability of the first variant will raise, and the prospect of overcoming of recession will be removed on the end of 1995 when relative density of extracting branches in industrial production structure in recalculation on the world prices will make not less than 60 %.
the Situation in the country, however, develops more dramatically, than two years ago it was represented to supporters “ a shock therapy “. “ Today and tomorrow the future of reforms will depend only on ability to restore economic growth “ - Egor Gaydar considers now. Basically coincides with this point of view and more moderate Oleg Soskovets`s opinion: “ Without increase of investment activity we do not leave from this conditions in which we are. It is a government position “.
At the same time the Russian government again and has not put forward any considerable project of improvement of an investment climate in the country. Focused exclusively on short-term objectives of reduction of budgetary deficiency tax system and the financial policy as a whole, suppressing business activity negosudarstvennogo economy, undermines it is unique a reliable basis of healthy economic growth. Thereby on prospect inevitability of considerable state intervention in economy remains. As the vice-president of the American Fund of a heritage Kim Holmes has declared, paraphrasing words of the minister housing and municipal services of the USA of Jack Kempa, “ a rigid course - not a way out: Russia needs not suppression of enterprise spirit, and in fast economic growth and development “. In this connection the probable withdrawal at the given stage from rigid monetaristskih the standards established by the international financial organisations, can be justified only in the event that can approach the decision of the main task facing the Russian government, - on fragments of planned system to generate