The OPEC about prospects of the oil market
As it is marked in the report of secretary of the OPEC extended yesterday, in the end of 1993 the cartel managed to keep a tendency to oil recovery reduction. But these efforts caused by decrease of world demand for oil (despite rather severe winter in northern hemisphere), are undermined by extraction increase those countries which are not included into the OPEC. Probably, soon Moscow will join coordination of efforts of petroexporters also. Anyway, Victor Tchernomyrdin, having met on Sunday the secretary general of the OPEC g - nom Subroto, has declared in Davos that would not object against statement of a question on membership of Russia in the OPEC.
According to the OPEC, demand for oil in 1993 made 65,81 million barrels a day (that less level of 1992 on 150 thousand barr. In day). Thus day volume of extraction in the OPEC countries (24,7 - 24,9 million barr.) On 650 thousand barrels exceeded level of 1992. Thus, the agreement given so difficultly on deduction of daily extraction at level not above 24,5 million barrels was not observed. And in December the price for crude oil has fallen to a catastrophic mark for exporters $12,67 for barrel. But if the OPEC has not refused yet idea as - that to regulate volume of extraction and a price level behind its limits with opinion of cartel are not considered. Norway has sharply increased oil recovery in the North Sea, the gain is noted in Argentina, Brazil, Ecuador, India. The volume of day extraction in the countries which are not entering into the OPEC, has made 40,68 million barrels. For 1994 of the OPEC predicts a level of demand on oil in 65,51 million barrels a day. In general till 2000, according to experts of cartel, demand is stable, moreover, it will be necessary to prepare for its growth.
Russia these problems are not indifferent. And, possibly, the hint g - on Tchernomyrdin on desirability of coordination from the OPEC can be apprehended as attempt at the expense of such coordination at least partially to compensate losses from Russian petroexport falling in cost expression (the increase in physical volumes does not compensate losses from falling of the prices). Coordination from the OPEC - in the West markets - is actual and because the situation with export to the CIS countries can soon change. By the end of 1993 Russia exported oil to the CIS practically at the world prices. That did export to this region by the most favourable for it is not assessed with such number of duties and taxes, as, for example, deliveries to Europe. But now in Moscow more and more in a course (as shows, in particular, the project “ crossings “ rouble with Belarus “ zajchikom “) Arguments in the spirit of “ political expediency “. And if Russia lowers import burden for “ allies “ exporters make active again the efforts on “ the western direction “. Then pressure " can become one of consequences; an oil lobby “ on a rouble market rate - towards its fall. After all many representatives of this lobby complain today that the present parity of rouble and dollar is unprofitable from the point of view of the increased expenses for oil extracting in east regions (it is necessary to consider and that from this year oil spetseksportery export deliveries from off-budget funds will finance). “ the Oil lobby “ by data from sources in Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations of Russia, would arrange level in 2000 rbl./ $ by the summer, thus, that the course will decrease is operated (on 100 - 150 roubles for 2 months), and also really to reflect a rate of inflation.
GEORGE - BOVT