The meeting in Vancouver
“ We know that nowadays lies on scales And that is made nowadays. Hour of courage has punched on our hours, And courage will not leave us “ - these lines of Anna Ahmatovoj Bill Clinton has finished yesterday the speech in Annapolis (State of Maryland) before editors of the American newspapers. He has entirely devoted to its support of the Russian reforms. The basic idea of performance of the American president was reduced to that “ the help of Russia - not the charity certificate, and investments into the future of America. “ yesterday in the morning the Russian and American presidents by phone have specified last details of the program of a meeting, and in 22. 30 Russian president has gone to Vancouver.
This morning Boris Yeltsin will already have breakfast with Bill Clinton and the prime minister - the minister of Canada Bryan Malruni (Brian Mulroney). Last, predictably, will offer Yeltsin the package of the help on $200 million (basically, on renewal of deliveries of grain). Simultaneously there will pass also a tripartite meeting of Ministers of Finance. The day before in a keynote speech Clinton has noticed that success of the Russian reforms, in - the first, “ will strengthen safety of America “ - helping Moscow, the USA will receive “ peace dividends “ from reduction of the military budget; in - the second, in the name of new Russia America will find the reliable partner in the decision of global problems; in - the third, according to Clinton, the open Russian economy will create the new market and stimulus for world economy development.
however it is yet clear, in which figures such support will be expressed. While Clinton administration has suggested to increase only slightly the help of Russia - from $417 million (which George Bush`s administration has approved still) to $700 million ($500 million should be given till September, 30th). Partly such restraint speaks sceptical mood occurring in the West. Arguments contra are reduced to the following: in - the first, because of corruption of the Russian bureaucracy, from 50 % to 60 % of the help it is plundered (opinion of the American experts); in - the second, from - for the overestimated taxes and a hyperinflation, by IMF estimations, “ capital flight “ of Russia has in the last two days made more than $17 mlrd; in - the third, in many cases the help does not achieve the object at all - from $60 million help to the former USSR this year all $238 million is assigned on concrete programs. Besides, by a recognition of experts of both parties, Russia could with bolshej use efficiency and food short-term credits given to it (in 1992 - $2,6 mlrd) on development of the agriculture.
actually, both in Washington, and in Moscow even more often abandon to the idea about necessity of reorganisation of all system of assistance to reforms in Russia (see The scheme). As a result of such reorganisation creation of spontaneous market structures which will provide irreversibility of reforms will be as the corner-stone put. Bill Clinton, in particular, suggests to create within the limits of IMF “ fund of structural transformation “ and therefrom, instead of from the overloaded budgets of the countries “ the big seven “ to scoop means for economic assistance of Russia. Its basis could, according to the president, to become the frozen credit of IMF in $6 mlrd for rouble stabilisation.
Clinton many offers find the response in Russia. At the same time Boris Yeltsin, probably, will try to introduce own corrective amendments in the program of discussions. In a context of creation of system of equal partnership of Russia and the West he, possibly, will bring up again a question on removal of the become obsolete restrictions by the COOK, on granting of Russia of access on the uranium market and about freedom of hands in world trade by the weapon and military technologies. Probably, are laid up in Yeltsin`s portfolio and a little unexpected offers (p. 2 see). However to count on immediate positive reaction of the USA hardly costs, and in a basis of negotiations Bill Clinton scenario, most likely, will be put.
NATALIA - KALASHNIKOV, GEORGE - BOVT