Our business — the party. The victory will be for usIn Macedonia NATO operation " proceeds; the Necessary harvest “ on disarmament of the Albanian insurgents. Russia predicts operations a failure. But actually Russia is interested in success NATO “ harvests “ only hesitates to admit it, considers an observer “ the Authorities “ Gennady Sysoyev.
For ten years of the Balkan crisis Russia does not participate for the first time in peace-making operation in region. Both in Bosnia, and she though did not star in Kosovo, but also in supernumeraries did not appear: 1200 Russian peacemakers participate in the Bosnian operation, in Kosovo there are our 3600 commandoes. This time Russia was in a pointed manner eliminated from the decision of Macedonian crisis, having refused to participate in operation “ the Necessary harvest “. There was it because Moscow, seemingly, has soberly estimated for the first time possibilities of the influence on the Balkans. Also has understood that these possibilities, to put it mildly, are limited.
in the military plan the Balkans all are more confidently involved in a zone of the western influence. In Bosnia of the NATO has located seriously and for a long time. The alliance too is not going to leave Kosovo. The only thing that it was possible to make Russia in Kosovo so it is dashing a march - a throw of the commandoes in the summer 1999 - go to grasp strategically important airdrome “ a Slatina “ having entered there on a pair of clocks before British. But the NATO has grieved not for long and now in accelerated tempo builds new base “ Bondsvil “ near to small town Uroshevats. There it is already enclosed $250 million, and it is necessary to enclose three more times on so much.
Such investments become obviously not for a year - another. The assumption of that the NATO intends to locate on the Balkans for a long time, confirms and the information which has filtered recently in mass-media on plans of the USA to lease for 99 years some Yugoslavian military facilities - and not only in Kosovo, but also in territory of Serbia.
Russia has understood that in the military plan the Balkans become sphere of influence of the West and resist to it it cannot. The Russian presence at region probably only in sphere economic. After all Yugoslavia and other Balkan countries continue to sit strongly on Russian oil and gas “ to a needle “ and be released from this dependence in the foreseeable future hardly can. To pay off for the Russian gas, the new democratic authorities of Yugoslavia have been compelled to introduce corrective amendments in privatisation plans and to suggest Moscow to participate in privatisation of key objects of thermal power station. In Belgrad have understood that other objects Moscow do not interest. And it gives the chance to Russia to stake out the influence in the vital sphere for Yugoslavia - power which is quite comparable on the importance to sphere military.
thus Moscow has preferred the asymmetric answer to a military call of the West. I will sink down, as a matter of fact, division of roles is offered: the NATO - military presence on the Balkans, Russia - economic. Some kind of new Yalta with its well-known formula “ 50 on 50 “.
War in Macedonia has introduced some corrective amendments in this deal. Completely to ignore an event in this Balkan country Moscow did not presume. After all there the authorities combat the Albanian extremists, and the situation in understanding of the Kremlin bears a strong resemblance to the Chechen Republic. So, insurgents it is necessary “ to wet “. Here only for this purpose the Macedonian authorities have not enough forces, also it became very fast clearly that unaided from the outside it not to manage.
and the authorities of Macedonia have turned the looks towards the West. Including because Russia, soberly having estimated the possibilities, obviously did not aspire to military participation in the Macedonian conflict.
However, recently in a number of the western mass-media (and in particular in English Times) have appeared messages that Russia and Ukraine secretly deliver large parties of the weapon to Macedonian armies - the military airdrome Petrovets which is near to Macedonian capital Skopje for this purpose is ostensibly used. And before the beginning of NATO operation “ the Necessary harvest “ the head of Macedonia Boris Trajkovsky has urgently requested meetings with president Vladimir Putin - it has taken place in Kiev at intermediary of the head of Ukraine Leonid Kuchma.
in the West have immediately started talking that Moscow almost meaningly undermines NATO operation in Macedonia. As the Russian president has obviously doubted its success. “ There are big doubts, - he has declared in Kiev, - as hardly it is possible to count that insurgents will hand over the weapon “. And its phrase “ Moscow counts on positive result of the operation which have begun in Macedonia of the NATO “ have considered as diplomatic politeness.
actually critical tone of Moscow speaks its desire, that NATO “ a harvest “ it has not appeared vague and that after its end the Albanian extremism has not given new shoots. Besides, to praise NATO operation in which Moscow does not participate, the Kremlin does not want and for internal political reasons - after all the majority of Russians yet do not consider the NATO as the partner of Russia.
actually Moscow is interested in success of operation of the NATO on disarmament of the Albanian insurgents. After all in case of its failure and war continuation in Macedonia the power of this country will almost inevitably select a power variant of the permission of crisis. Also will officially address for the military help to Russia. And here then Moscow will appear before an unpleasant dilemma: or to refuse the rule “ to wet insurgents in a toilet “ or to threaten relations with the western partners.