Rus News Journal

Growth of export of oil from Arabian peninsula can lead to drop in prices

this week in a total power will earn oil pipelines of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates bypassing strait of Ormuz - the basic line of deliveries of the Arabian oil on the world market. These arteries are installed in the middle of July and their capacity is quickly increased.

export Growth oil from Arabian peninsula can lead to long drop in prices that is unprofitable to Russia and a number of other suppliers. Besides, Morgan Stanley recently has declared end of a universal cycle of the high raw prices, especially on oil and gas.

On new Transarabian routes oil is taken out in the shortest way to Suez canal and to pool of Indian ocean. Their general loading since August will exceed 4 million barr. A day. Opening of these routes has been caused by plans of Iran to block the sector of strait of Ormuz, but it has not occurred: The Iranian oil, despite embargo from the USA and EU, is taken out in former volume at the expense of growth of deliveries to the Peoples Republic of China, India, the republic of South Africa, Taiwan, a number of other countries. Do not reduce export of oil and the Arabian countries through strait of Ormuz.

Now to the mentioned streams the new, already filled pipelines, through Arabian peninsula were added. Taking into account this factor an openness strait of Ormuz can lower oil quotations for a long time. And the Russian Federation already reacts to such tendencies: the deputy minister of the finance of the Russian Federation Alexey Lavrov has declared recently that the Ministry of Finance in August will develop the forecast of the federal budget - 2013 at almost double falling of the world prices for oil - to $60 for barrel.

As has explained RBG Michael Ermolovich, the general director of the company Gazkonsalt influence of new ways for the Arabian oil on dynamics of the world prices while is difficult for estimating. But if to assume that export of oil from Arabian peninsula will quickly forward on new routes then the prices can go down. And as a whole from - for events in region long-term costs for Russia, according to Yermolovich, can appear above short-term benefits, therefore restore here stability, including with oil deliveries, essentially important.

Besides, in its opinion, the USA and the NATO will use a situation in strait of Ormuz   for strengthening of pressing Iran and Syria. The prices for oil in this case will receive an impulse to growth. But this tendency will be basically sdempfirovana use of stocks of oil within the limits of the International power agency and a diversification and routes of deliveries .