Leonid Radzihovsky: In a historical context shouts about extinction of Russia seem strongly exaggerated
As it is known, 14 - on October, 25th there will pass the All-Russia population census.
But Rosstat in intervals between censuses too baklushi does not beat. The information on position in our country is so rich, interesting that a sin about it not to write.
In advance I apologise - in this text there will be few adjectives and metaphors, more and more figure. In the justification to myself I can tell that it - without any pathos - country life numerically.
As it is known, the first All-Russia census has passed in 1897 (then Nikolay II in the column a trade has written - the Owner of land Russian ) . The population of Russia in modern borders made 67,5 million people In 1914 - m - already 90 million For 17 years growth more than on 20 % - a picture typical for the countries with the young and patriarchal population. Approximately such rates (or even faster - thanks to low children`s death rate) the population of the Muslim countries now grows.
In adults (perhaps - old ) the countries a picture other.
For example, in 1914 - m the population of France made 39 million, now - about 64 million from which there is more than 10 million - emigrants from Algeria, Morocco, other countries of Africa. Thus, growth indigenous population almost for 100 years - about 40 %. About such figures and across England - 45 million in 1914, 61 million - in 2010 - the m, growth hardly is more than on 30 % (and that its considerable part provide come in large numbers from Pakistan, India and etc.). Germany - 65 million in 1914 - m, 82,5 million ( including a Turk ) - In 2010 - m, and from the middle 1990 - h population practically does not change.
Growth of the population of Russia for this century is more: with 90 to 142 million, almost on 60 %.
So in this context obligatory shouts about extinction of Russia seem strongly exaggerated - our country simply is at the same stage of development that the majority of the European countries. However, in the Russian Federation - unlike the basic EU countries - the population is reduced. But too it is far not catastrophically. In 1995 - m (highest point) - 148,3 million, now - 141,8. For 15 years reduction less than for 5 %, and rates of this reduction decrease. Thanks to birth rate growth (and to a lesser degree some reduction of death rate) and positive migration can expect stabilisation of the population of Russia the next years.
According to demographic forecasts the country population in 2030 can make from 127 to 147 million people Anyway not too similar on popular horror stories about full destruction seriously .
another matter - as is distributed this population in the country.
Since 1990 the population on all federal districts - except Severo - Caucasian is reduced. The population of the republics entering into this district, made in 1990 - m - 7 575 000 people, and now - 9 255 000. For 20 years growth more than on 20 % - besides that all time goes negative migration! In some republics growth even more impresses. So, in the Chechen Republic in 2000 there were 997 000 inhabitants, now - 1 million 268 thousand, for 10 years growth almost on 27 %! In Dagestan with 1 875 000 (1990) to 2 737 000 - for 20 years growth almost on 50 %!
certainly, in country scales all these figures are extremely insignificant, even if such rates will remain, anyway besides 2030 the population of Severo - the Caucasian district hardly probable will strongly exceed 10 % of the population of the Russian Federation. But the tendency interesting - it speaks, perhaps, about bolshej vitalnoj to force inhabitants of these republics in comparison with Russian Russia . Here too there is nothing unusual - the same phenomena take place to be and in the Western Europe, so far as concerns citizens - Moslems and citizens - Christians. Besides - I am far from conclusions, especially from any emotional estimations (usually with such estimations begin also them finish). In this phenomenon - as in any difficult social process - is much good and dangerous and all these estimations can change in due course... But the main thing - it is pleasant it to someone or not, but here all objectively and inevitably.
However we will return to figures.
Other region which quickly grows, - certainly, Moscow. In 1990 - m in it was 9 million people, now - 10 600 000. For 20 years growth about 12 % (I speak about official figures, fantastic estimations - to 14 million - I do not consider). By the way, contrary to to the big eyes of emotions : according to the official data, the overwhelming majority of migrants for which account Moscow grows, - ethnic Russian. Anyway, in the population of Moscow now 84 % of Russian, 3 more % - Ukrainians and Byelorussians. Earlier the share of Russian in Moscow was a bit more (during 1920 - 1980 - h years she fluctuated from 87 to 90 %). However, we will look that new census will show... By the way, in Moscow 700 orthodox temples and 6 (!) Mosques.
But other regions dry out .
For example, Far East district. In 1990 - 8 million people, now - 6 460 000, reduction almost on 20 %! The Siberian district. In 1990 - m - 21,1 million, now - 19,5 million, compression almost on 10 %.
Or here traditional Russian areas . The first date - the population in 1990, the second - in 2010 the Vladimir region: 1 655 000 - 1 430 000, reduction by 14 %; the Ivanovo region: 1 293 000 - 1 066 000, reduction by 18 %; Kostroma: 804 000 - 688 000, reduction by 15 %; Ryazan: 1 350 000 - 1 151 000, reduction on 15 %; Smolensk: 1 158 000 - 966 000, reduction on 18 %; Tambov: 1 312 000 - 1 088 000, reduction on 17 %; Murmansk: 1 189 000 - 836 000, reduction by 30 % (!) . By the way, in 1914 the population of Kostroma province (truth, its territory not quite coincided with borders of today`s area) - 1 800 000 people
As well as it was told in article beginning, I do not want to resort to adjectives, especially emotional. But to be kept from comparison radical Russia with the tree which has been pulled out from soil, - it is almost impossible.
the Reasons of this phenomenon are diverse, but, undoubtedly, the economy has great value.
it is valid, rupture in incomes between regions huge, perhaps, more than rupture between those or other regions and the various next states.
So, in 2007 monthly average incomes across Moscow made 34 000 rbl., on the Ivanovo region - 8300 rbl., on Bryansk - 10 000, across Stavropol Territory - too 10 000. However, in Jamalo - Nenets autonomous region incomes - 38 000 rbl., and in Nenets autonomous region - 49 000 rbl.
However, in Ingushetia where the population has grown about 282 000 people (1995) to 517 000 people (2010), i.e. more than on 80 % (!) Per capita in 2007 - only 5500 rbl. Even adjusted for all known features of local statistics it is necessary to recognise incomes that republic - it is exact not from the rich. And the population grows on yeast... So also truth - not in money happiness!
Non-uniform distribution of national wealth creates dangerous disproportions in the country.
So, Moscow (7,5 % of the population of the country) gives 24 % of gross national product; the Tyumen region (2,4 % of the population of the Russian Federation) - about 10 % of gross national product. If them to combine - less than 10 % of the population of the country give more thirds of gross national product.
On the other hand, the Far East (36 % of territory of Russia) gives 4,5 % of gross national product, and Siberia (30 % of territory) - 10,7 % of gross national product. Total 66 % of territory of Russia give about 15 % of national gross national product. Whether
this situation Promotes unity of the country - I give to judge to readers.