Sergey Karaganov: the Success Russian - the American rapprochement depends on political destiny of administration of Obama
Russian - the American relations worry now “ honey half-year “ begun with spring of this year. “ reboot “ it has gone right. But ahead more hard times.
Republicans have advanced to the attack on B.Obama and will try to torpedo ratification of Contract SNV. But the main thing - structural weakness of present model of relations. It generally is aimed at the tactical decision of the problems which have got from the past, or in general pseudo-problems, but not calls which the mankind and two countries will face in the future. For giving it is necessary for relations of really steady and strategic character, that they corresponded to this, the new agenda.
Estimating a present condition Russian - the American relations from the point of view of criteria which it would be possible to show to them in the past, difficultly to be kept from feeling expression “ deep satisfaction “.
Perhaps, never since the Second World War or the short period of the beginning 1990 - h when young Russia was ready to merge in an impulse of postrevolutionary enthusiasm with the West, this atmosphere was not the best. And now for this improvement Moscow concedes nothing.
There are also real achievements. The new Contract on restriction of strategic offensive arms is signed. Thus it, sending a positive political signal to the world, does not go further symbolical reductions and restoration of the mechanism of restriction of arms most generating trust. Idea “ global zero “ to which continue to swear ritually, I think, it is buried. The American liberal dreams about “ denuclearized paradise “ Supported by quite cynical calculations that only in such denuclearized or malojadernom the world of the USA can politically realise the non-nuclear superiority, “ have run into a bank “.
It became obvious that to disarm wants nobody. And the main thing - that and with the saved up budgetary deficiency of the USA cannot long keep the unconditional non-nuclear superiority in the new world of rising powers. It seems that while it is buried and the extremely dangerous idea having many supporters about the beginning artificial and not negotiations favourable to Russia about reduction to nobody disturbing and even psychologically stabilising tactical nuclear arms in Europe.
Russia has adjoined a coalition of the countries, trying to undertake last attempts to stop Iran from acquisition nuclear or “ threshold “ the status (ability to manufacture of such weapon). Most likely, the international community has already lost this round of distribution. But the Russian participation in sanctions politically correctly (from the point of view of B.Obama`s counter support) and is favourable (from the point of view of restraint of the following wave of distribution).
Russia has to the full supported key operation for the USA in Afghanistan. Besides correctly and favourably.
In the answer of the USA, publicly denying it de - fakto, recognised special Russian interests in territory of the former USSR, have ceased to counteract strengthening of its positions in this region. Earlier they did not do it simply of a principle. Conversations on wider economic cooperation became more active also. The USA have once again promised to promote the Russian accession to WTO.
At last, have earned numerous Russian - the American official dialogues within the limits of the Presidential commission, called to deepen and institualizirovat cooperation. Too high level, absence of this institutsionnoj bases for development of the impulses arriving from above was one of the reasons of failures of last calling on rapprochement their personified, generally.
it would be possible to list many achievements “ reboots “ taken place though in many respects on - to other, than it was supposed in the beginning. In it is and many lacks, reefs. Major of them - unwillingness or intellectual inability of Americans to finish unfinished “ cold war “ in Europe signing of the new contract on the European safety or any different way on what Russia fairly insists.
But the main problems three. In - the first, vulnerability of present round Russian - the American rapprochement. Its success in many respects depends on political destiny of administration of B.Obama against which the republicans aspiring back in the power conduct fierce struggle. To a course there are any arguments, including ostensibly B.Obama`s softness concerning Russia. Though last spends from the point of view of rationally understood American interests more than the reasonable policy. Republicans do not offer realistic alternative. Put while on a negative. Therefore the probability zamatyvanija in the senate of new Contract SNV is high. Simply because it - “ Obama`s contract “ and it it is necessary to deprive of success.
In - the second, and it in the long-term plan more essentially, almost all present, and the offered summons for Russian - the American relations is turned to past problems. Often important, at least because they are represented by those to people who are engaged in foreign policy. And their brains quickly you will not alter. But their given agenda also cannot alter, preserves old representations more likely. They can be even politically positive. But thus all the same already inadequate to calls of the world of the present and the future. The brightest example - a place of process of restriction of strategic offensive arms in Russian - the American relations. This place and discussion round them remained almost same, as at the time of “ cold war “ when two countries really each other threatened. When - that the first arrangements on restriction of these arms served reduction of enmity and strengthening of mutual safety. Now both countries really any more do not consider each other as enemies. And their strategic armaments, keeping residual function of restraint, actually each other do not threaten.
But also now new Contract SNV is considered as the central element of relations of two countries. I - for. But this contract has the smallest relation to real calls and threats. Also looks lovely, but it is inappropriate. As the pair dancing a polonaise in a modern disco - club.
Unfortunately, probably, the policy concerns past problems on prevention jadernizatsii Iran also. She needed to be spent earlier - without supposing reception of the nuclear weapon by Israel, India, Pakistan, the North Korea. Now, conducting, of course, necessary rearguard actions, it is necessary to think of how to live in peace not with five, and with nine nuclear powers and to prevent further raspolzanie the nuclear weapon.
In - the third, and it can be the most important thing, the major weakness of present model Russian - the American relations is almost total absence in it aiming at the future. Perhaps, the unique direction of dialogue directed in it and directed on reflexion of possible general threats, the American offers on creation joint whether Russian - American, whether natovsko - the Russian system of the ABM are. I am sceptical about these plans and their practicability. But they, at least, are obviously aimed in the future, at reflexion zagorizontnyh calls and if begin to be realised, will create relations real sojuznichestva.
the idea of special mutual relations causes In me in the world where the USA, especially Russia will not be obvious leaders questions even, and practical initiatives it should be advanced in a multilateral format.
And here I pass to the new world in which Russia and the USA in common or separately should operate.
absolute and relative easing and the United States, and Russia will be One of its important features. This easing accompanied by almost inevitable continuation haotizatsii of the international relations, will demand from leading capable powers of much bigger coordination of a policy. It is the major incentive motive which should push Russia and the USA to rapprochement. But not only them. Interaction adjustment on a line China - the USA - Russia, Russia - EU - the USA should become the major source of stability in this world. “ the big eights “ “ the twenty “ and other forums of the international management cannot be how many - nibud effective if in them groups of the countries capable to political and intellectual leadership are not defined. It would be desirable, of course, that at these groups there was also Russia. Not how at the Copenhagen forum on a climate where of decision-making have been actually discharged both EU, and Russia.
Other call which it is necessary to answer, is coinciding on time and a place lifting of Asia and the national state. I am far from frightening “ yellow threat “. This lifting, first of all growth of China, became the locomotive of growth of well-being for all mankind. It is a pity that to this locomotive Russia was not fastened yet.
But lifting of Asia and the state nationalism in it will inevitably put on the summons new calls for the international system. Only a part from them probably to expect. For example, formation relative, maybe, even virtual vacuum of safety around more and more powerful China. In East and Southern Asia in addition to old problems the new is added. And she cannot be solved old methods - creation of system of military restraint. Advancing creation of system of safety is necessary for region in which can and should play an important role of the USA and Russia.
It is available other vacuum of safety already existing and aggravated in other part of Asia - in the big region round Persian gulf. Inability to create for this purpose besides jadernizirujushchegosja region safety system is the largest failure of world politics of last decades. This vacuum will even more be aggravated after inevitable within several years of leaving of the USA and the NATO from Afghanistan. It is necessary to fill it. And without the initiative of Russia and the USA, probably, China, probably, India it it is impossible to make plus. Also it is precisely impossible to make without the guarantees of safety given by external powers. For now it can be only Russia and the USA.
New industrial revolution, lifting of Asia sharply also have for a long time increased demand for natural resources, energy, the foodstuffs. For them so, and for territory, new competition has begun. It is necessary to create conditions that it has not outgrown in new geopolitical rivalry by an example of the last centuries. Signs already are. That costs while virtual struggle for 25 % not reconnoitered (sic) power resources of the world which can (sic) be, probably, in the Russian zone of Arctic regions. In the traditional West have started talking about comical “ the Arctic NATO “. We like spend military maneuvers, fulfilling protection of the Arctic spaces. China is amicably accused of a press in an encroachment on them. Obviously, other policy and other thinking is required.
the Moscow fires, I hope, have convinced last fluctuating in a reality of danger of the further climate change. But the mankind dances ritual dances round this problem. Necessity Russian - American (together with EU and other players) initiatives is Here too obvious.
Almost all new calls converge in a situation developing round the Russian Siberia and the Far East. Without the international investment and political project on transformation of this region into a source of natural resources and the foodstuffs for the new markets. Russia cannot avoid its transformation into raw and political periphery of China. With dangers to all. Including for the China. predot vratit such sliding joint efforts can only under the aegis of Russia of variety of the Asian countries. And, of course, - the USA.
In newspaper article it is impossible even to rename all possibilities of mutually advantageous interaction of Russia and the USA under the new agenda.
If, certainly, to start to translate these relations on a new political and intellectual basis to deduce them from a shade “ cold war “ to conduct in a giving direction to these relations of allied type.
it is unevident that present elite of two countries is ready to rise to new calls, to overcome a habit “ to move back forward “. But if not to put before them new problems, the habit remains insuperable. And this elite will continue to move back, generating on road of clones as they already do last twenty years.
However, hope of change all - taki is. America could jump over itself and has led to the power B. Obama from it in many respects innovative and rational thinking. Probably, it will not succeed and will be poverzhen. But it inspires hope that the young can be cleverer and better than old generations.
Certainly, an appeal to be engaged in the futuristic agenda for Russian - the American relations does not mean that I call, that have been forgotten “ old old “ (type not finished “ cold war “ in Europe) or “ old new “ (type of nuclear distribution, the international terrorism or the narcotraffic) agendas. Without them not to manage. Today`s or yesterday`s calls remained. Also can become aggravated let and in a floor - a farcical variant as it was, for example, during war in South Ossetia. There is a danger of renewal of race of arms, let and already, I hope, and not on Russian - the American direction.
But without a sight directed in the future, we will be rejected by these old agendas constantly back. And from the new we can at least try to construct really innovative, instead of it is simple “ reloading “ or on - old-looking - normal - relations between Russia and the USA. Which would be useful both to two countries, and other world.