Evgenie Primakov: It is necessary to understand that can prevent to create to us new economy
the World economic crisis has highlighted in a contrast kind a number of our problems in the field of economy and a policy. But business is not limited to it.
Russia has risen before a choice: or to pass to new economic model for what calls the modernisation slogan, or to aspire to keep relative well-being in economic and social spheres which provided transformation of our country in a power superstate .
the Estimations which have been not confirmed with the validity
They as it is represented, are necessary for the thought over line concerning the future of Russia.
the First conclusion. In the beginning of world financial crisis there was an assumption that our country remains stability island - waves of crisis will pass by. About it said and from high tribunes that, obviously, it is possible to explain, on the one hand, underestimation of depth of integration of Russia in world economy, and with another - revaluation of the measures undertaken during the pre-crisis period on purpose to be protected in case of sharp falling of the prices for oil.
Such forecasts were groundless first of all the preceding market period already has predetermined global frameworks of development of the Russian economy. As to safety pillows called to protect the country in a case a swagger - major circumstances already by the end of the first year of crisis it was found out: it it is far not the panacea rescuing Russia from serious consequences world financially - an economic crisis. Even if we have felt that have reached a crisis bottom, we will make a start from it and we will start to emerge, all the same will pass some years before while we firmly will rise on feet. And in these conditions absolutely clearly that deficiency of our budget cannot constantly become covered at the expense of Reserve fund which, according to the Minister of Finance, completely will run low this 2010.
the Second not sustained contact with life the conclusion consisted that the crisis reason in Russia lies exclusively out of sew the countries. Crisis, certainly, has come to us from the outside, but this crisis has received depth at us as a result the Russian features. We have entered into crisis with a number of a disbalance. At us of 40 percent of gross national product it is created at the expense of raw materials export, and it is natural that crisis bolnejshim has struck in the image across Russia. For the past 2009 gross national product of Russia has decreased for 8,7 percent. Someone can tell that in China too the considerable part of gross national product is created at the expense of export, and it has not led to serious crisis consequences. Moreover, during crisis in China there was a reduction not gross national product, and its annual gain - with 13 to 9,6 percent. The matter is that the basis of export of China is made by the industrial goods of consumer appointment, and we export mainly raw materials. Therefore, having faced that the considerable part of exported production is not realised, China has developed it on home market and by means of the state measures has increased internal demand, solvency of the population. As a result at foreign trade reduction has grown internal, and it has allowed to keep high rates of economic growth. At our structure of economy similar maneuver is rather limited.
Receiving before crisis huge means at the expense of the high export prices for oil, gas, we did not put them not only, to finish superdependence on raw materials export, but also for the purpose of development of a market infrastructure. Backwardness of bank system became one of consequences of it. The fact remains: we have entered into crisis, having an external corporate debt in 500 mlrd dollars. It is the huge sum - at that point in time it was equal to gold and exchange stocks of the country. The line of the Ministry of Finance and the Central bank has led to that in Russia and the system of long-term crediting was not formed. Our businessmen practically pushed out abroad for reception long money - long-term credits.
Position was aggravated because the large Russian companies which have received abroad these long money and their basic part is presented by structures in which controlling interests belong to the state, did not become active partners of the government in repayment of the debts. Under the certificate of the chairman of Audit Chamber of the Russian Federation Sergey Stepashin, autumn of 2008 when crisis approach became obvious, large Russian corporations have held extraordinary meeting of shareholders on which have decided to pay the considerable sums of a kind intermediate dividends. Thus, - Stepashin has declared, - before crisis the largest corporations and holdings remained without circulating assets. Their proprietors have meaningly withdrawn from a turn of hundred billions roubles, and then have addressed for state support. In some cases this support has been rendered .
Till now there were no government partners in creation of internal sources of long-term crediting of real sector of economy large commercial banks of Russia. According to Vladimir Putin, banks prefer to hold the actives in the most liquid tools, instead of to put them in long credits . It is known that the state support of the financial system which has prevented its collapse that could turn back catastrophic economic and social consequences became the first anti-recessionary measure in Russia. The massed injections of liquidity in bank system have appeared completely justified. However the expenditure of the big public funds has not removed a problem of crediting of real economy. Generalising, it is possible to tell that the major problem of creation highlighted by crisis in Russia internal system of financing of economy is far from the decision.
Because that means in the country were not put, chronic shortage of investments was formed. Their total volume has made only the fifth part of all earned means. As a result we have got to inadmissible dependence on import of consumer goods, cars and the equipment. By an estimation Stankoimporta in annual volume of machine tools bought by the Russian businessmen the share of the domestic makes no more than 1 percent. And it is not casual that the new machine equipment at us it is made in 82 times less, than in Japan, in 30 times it is less, than in Germany, and in 31 times it is less, than in China. Meanwhile well-known that mechanical engineering development - the major factor of maintenance of modernisation of economy.
the Third conclusion which does not represent the facts, it that world financial crisis which, undoubtedly, has structural character, means the beginning of the end of capitalism, otherwise, market orientation of world economy. Certainly, there was a crisis of that model of capitalism which developed in the United States: money - securities - money . The state, without interfering with economy, has given all to the market. In the USA it has led to the large-scale speculative operations which are often carried out by those organisations and the companies which real actives were less means declared in speculative transactions. Volumes and scales of loans were not supervised. But the crisis generated all by it does not mean the end of capitalism or even blasting of market development.
However, now leave crisis, applying methods, it is far not peculiar to liberal capitalism, but nevertheless not methods which as it is estimated by some, are outside of capitalism or a market economy. At certain stages capitalism not only supposes the state intervention, but also cannot develop without it. In the same United States, for example, on New Year`s Eve the congress House of Representatives has approved amendments to the law on financial regulation. Now the state department will carry out rigid control over banks, funds and other credit structures. The created state structure acquires the right to liquidate firm and to split up the companies, whose activity threatens stability of economy, and the Federal reserve system (FRS) - to supervise the large companies appearing on the verge of bankruptcy.
Stability of capitalism, its ability to adapt, including to heavy crisis conditions, beats on arguments of antimarket experts. But for Russia where antimarket experts practically already have descended from political arena, the main thing not a question: to be or not to be to the market, and a parity state and chastnopredprinimatelskogo in market development. Recently in Russia the criticism of the state corporations, the requirement aktsionirovat those from them which work in the competitive environment has amplified. Such approach is justified. The state corporations which creation was necessary, for example, in such degrading branches as aircraft construction and shipbuilding, in variety of cases were it is artificial are protected from a market competition. The property was transferred to them without the auctions. The part of state corporations left from financial control. Practice has sharply raised the question about distribution on their activity of laws and market rules.
However participation of the state in economic life is not limited to that it is the proprietor of the enterprise. It is one party of intervention of the state in economy. Another consists that the state along with the market acts as a process regulator. During the separate periods the role of state regulation of economy increases, sometimes decreases, but never completely disappears. Hence, indisputable necessity to rectify situation with state corporations should not lead soskalzyvaniju on a position of neoliberals at all, preaching idea of an exception of the state from process of economic regulation. It at all does not mean refusal of perfection of economic strategy and practice of the Russian state. At a present stage, perhaps, special value gets at us counteraction to merging of officials of all colours with business. To it, unfortunately, it is paid much less attention, than it is necessary. And without rupture of a sheaf of officials with business serious fight against corruption is impossible.
One more insolvent conclusion consists that the dollar has sputtered out as reserve currency. Really, the tendency of easing of dollar concerning other currencies was showed. But it is not identical to that in the near future the dollar slips from a pedestal of world reserve currency. Actually, practically anybody also is not interested in it. At rise in price of euro concerning dollar the European export goods lose competitiveness. Dollar exchange rate decrease depreciates reserves of many countries - first of all China, Japan, Russia, and all others who holds a considerable part of the currency reserves in the American dollars.
forecasts of transformation into reserve currency of rouble Are impracticable for the nearby period. The former head of Federal reserve system (FRS) the USA Alan Grinspen has told: While the Russian rouble cannot become even regional currency from - for too high dependences on the prices for oil . To it it is possible to add that the share of Russia and in world gross national product, and in world financial and trading streams is extremely small. Certainly, crisis has shown that does not exist unipolar miroustrojstva that it is impossible to supervise now over a world financial system from one centre that the role of regional and national currencies will grow. But to think that the rouble becomes reserve currency in the near future, - impracticable dream.
the Best prospect
Consideration of four not taken place look-ahead estimations leads to a conclusion about necessity of modernisation of Russia. It is process which covers all fields of activity and lives of a society for the purpose of lifting of the country to level of requirements of the present. The wide front of such measures, as well as movement on all this front is obligatory. However it is represented that owing to the developed circumstances, including world crisis, paramount value for Russia is got by economy modernisation. Such conclusion is basic. In Russia there were the publications which authors insist that in the beginning it is necessary to modernise the state structures and only then to start economy modernisation. The idea of demolition of the developed political structure as a condition of successful modernisation of economy is put forward even. Such appeals to revolutionary to transformations of power structures, to put it mildly, kontrproduktivny, and by and large provokatsionny as contain threat even prior to the beginning of modernisation (we while only we speak about it) to divide the Russian society to create a situation when in general will have no time for modernisation. Expressly or by implication promote it irresponsible people can only.
However it at all does not mean that economy modernisation is possible out of process of democratisation of a society. Process this many-sided. But, obviously, it is possible and it is necessary to allocate from it the most important thing for the decision of problems of economic modernisation of Russia. This main thing - leadership of the law and independent justice.
Today all - both heads of the state, and ordinary businessmen - do not deny, and, on the contrary, persistently assert that during the postcrisis period Russia should have a new economic model. Its creation, as a matter of fact, also is economy modernisation. Parametres of new model on hearing: transition to innovative rails and change of structure of economy. It is natural that during crisis to create such new model it is impossible. But at the same time now it is necessary to designate not in words, and in practice its contours, strenuously to work on its construction.
I will not stop on specific proposals. They have been widely developed in the Message of president Dmitry Medvedev to Federal Meeting and in the speech said by the chairman of the government by Vladimir Putin at congress an United Russia . I will mention some themes of the general maintenance. First of all it is necessary to understand that can prevent successful advancement of Russia to new economic model. Such hindrance is the inertial thinking of rather influential circles which hope that the basic importers of oil gradually leave recession and the price for oil are kept at high enough level. In their opinion, course continuation on primary support of the large raw companies will recreate the favorable pre-crisis situation promoting growth of gross national product and well-being of the population in Russia.
Such line assumes extrapolation on the future of problems and the purposes of pre-crisis economic policy that will objectively lead to transformation of Russia into a raw appendage of world powers not only traditional but also China. There are all bases to consider: the prevailing majority of the countries captured by crisis, connects its overcoming with an exit on higher step tehniko - technological development. And not only connects, but also does for this purpose very many. In the new conditions which have developed in connection with world crisis, the course on revival of economic activity without its qualitative component is even more unacceptable for Russia, than earlier. Consequences of such status - kvo for Russia are fatal and in economic, both social, and political areas.
At the same time in counteraction to forces which are not adjusted on resolute advancement of Russia to new economic model, followed avoid of some extreme conclusions. In - the first, representation about as if the reference point on new economic model assumes a turn a back to so already done much good to the raw companies. We still will depend very long on taxes paid by them and other payments which are filling up the budget. Therefore increase in volumes of extraction of the raw materials, accompanied by growth of efficiency and dobychAnd, both processings, and shares of raw materials with the added cost in export, - such directions should find a worthy place in new economic model.
But also it it is not enough. There is a direct communication between preservation and perfection of export of energy carriers with necessity of modernisation of all economy. Russia has sharply lagged behind very many countries in working out and introduction of power saving up technologies. On manufacture of one ton it began to be spent at us in 3 times of more electric power, than in Belgium, France, Italy, for manufacture of one ton of mineral fertilizers - in 6 times more, than in the Arabian countries. There is a real threat of that without transition to innovative rails export of energy carriers will sharply be reduced already during the foreseeable period. Even at increase in extraction there will be for export some no oil, a gas. Certainly, the great value has savings of energy at the expense of new electrobulbs, but it is scanty in comparison with losses in the industry.
In - the second, all is wrong to represent done in the Russian economy till today in the negative plan, and such motives already start to be duplicated. Despite taking place lacks, the Russian management, since the end of the ninetieth years of the last century, has made as a whole much in heavy opposition with pseudo-liberals - monetarists who were taken out on a wave crest by chaotic transition of Russia to market rails during the period with 1992 for 1998. It is possible to consider that their activity has been limited further. We will remember, for example, the initiative of president V.V.Putin who has insisted on section of Stabilization fund on Reserve fund and Fund of national well-being. As a result contrary to plans of the governmental financiers the part received from export of oil of means all - taki has been intended not for folding in a jug, and for development of economy and lifting of a standard of living of the population. Nowadays too the line of the chairman of the government on restraint of those who wishes to come back to pre-crisis model of the Russian economy is looked through. As reaction to the offer of the Ministry of Finance widely to renew financial loans abroad on a market basis Putin`s offer has sounded to create the internal mechanism of reception long money the Russian businessmen, using with that end in view the Pension fund and Fund of national well-being. At last, not who other as Putin, in the description of anti-recessionary measures has put forward for the first time idea of necessity of new economic model for Russia. It is necessary to tell that representation as if economic improvement of Russia begins from now on, does not promote strengthening in the lead a tandem in what those who really wants changes are interested.
In - the third, in estimations of carried out anti-recessionary measures it is impossible to abstract from objective difficulties and contradictions. It is quite clear aspiration and the president, and the head of the government to make everything to keep a social orientation of economic policy, to limit growth of social and political risks. And it in practice conducts to admitting bankruptcy of variety not - the effective enterprises that in itself contradicts interests of economic progress. The social orientation of anti-recessionary measures is dictated also by general provisions - poverty of a considerable part of the Russian population, the withdrawal from social orientation of anti-recessionary measures to which some economists oppose correct as a matter of fact, but unacceptable refusal in the Russian conditions from support by the government of some economically insolvent enterprises, especially in monocities therefore is impossible.
the Special role of the state
That can stimulate business to work in an innovative mode? In the developed countries business is forced to it by a competition which is poorly developed in our market economy. However and at all of us depends on, whether the businessman will feel that its profit is directly connected with constant perfection of manufacture in tehniko - the technological plan. Such feeling at all did not cause a pre-crisis state of affairs in the Russian economy where weather was done by the large raw companies getting guaranteed profit at the expense of use of a natural rent.
Transition to a way of innovative economy is possible in Russia first of all at a support on averages and small enterprises. Simultaneously follows, as it sounds is paradoxical, to give multilateral support military - to an industrial complex, transforming it into one of important levers of innovative development of all economy. Has historically developed so that during the Soviet period VPK has incorporated the greatest part scientifically - technical potential of the country. This potential far is not completely dissipated in modern Russia. Having placed it in the service of economy modernisation, followed make tehniko - technological achievements VPK accessible to civil manufacture, naturally, without putting a damage of the privacy necessary at manufacturing of arms. In the USA the companies which simultaneously let out civil production, anyway, production of double appointment are engaged in manufacture of arms, as a rule. It is one of important ways of innovative development and for us.
For lack of due level of the competition pushing businessmen to innovations, the role of the state as a stimulator scientifically - technical progress sharply increases. Methods and measures of such stimulation should at given stage to make the basic part of function of the state as economy regulator. One of the most effective mechanisms of stimulation of the innovative enterprises is the differentiated decrease in taxes, granting of tax vacation, subsidising of interest rates on the credits used for acquisition of new technologies, patents, licences and the modern equipment. In the conditions of crisis such decisions are accepted difficult, but it is necessary to do it.
the Russian validity demands also that measures on strengthening state both public control over a special-purpose character and efficiency of the preferences, given themes to the companies which are engaged in innovative activity have been provided. At us it is good in this plan the Audit Chamber proves. But it is frequent results of its investigations and analytical work leave in sand.
support of the manufacturers getting new technologies has Special value. Now 70 percent of our enterprises almost all branches prefer to other kinds of innovations only purchase of cars and the equipment. And the equipment any more is in most cases bought today at lower price. Only hardly more than 8 percent are interested in purchase of licences and patents. It is necessary to encourage them first of all.
we Will remember, how fast growth have reached Japan, South Korea, and today - China, India. The main way to this purpose were purchases of licences which were not simply realised, and became base for improvement. It is necessary to involve in the organisation of innovative movement and business. Trading - the industrial chamber of Russia, for example, has suggested to pass the federal law, which would oblige all without a company exception to direct certain percent from the incomes (I will underline - incomes, instead of net profit) in national Fund of modernisation and technological development of the country. And - and it is very important - the sum of deductions of this fund would decrease for that volume of means which the company spends for the decision of own innovative problems, including expenses on scientifically - research and is skilled - design works. Why not to allocate this fund with many functions of State committee which has well proved in the Soviet period on a science and the technician (GKNT)?
along with a lack connected with acquisition by the enterprises of new technologies, the inability to transform the mental potential in actives (licences, intellectual property rights and brands) is shown. In the wide plan is the lack inherited still from Soviet period when from fundamental opening through applied science to implementatsii in manufacture we took place a way in two - three times longer on time, than in the USA, a number of the developed European countries. Preservation of this backlog in market conditions has pushed some to thought on necessity of commercialisation of the main centre of fundamental science - the Russian Academy of Sciences. It is good that such impulse has been stopped in time. Without working out of fundamental scientific disciplines of Russia the role of the country will be prepared, receiving is dosed especially out tehniko - technological achievements from - for a boundary. However the rate on the Russian Academy of Sciences as on the main centre of development of fundamental science, at all does not contradict necessity of perfection of applied science and, finally, commercialisation of results of work of scientists.
Pushes to actively to use the Russian mental potential and the passed law, resolving to higher educational institutions to create commercial structures. Cλεδσες, without shelving, to develop variety of statutory acts without which the law will operate in obviously insufficient scales.
New, nonconventional ideas are necessary and for personnel maintenance of modernisation and technological development of the country. TPP Russia has suggested to think, for example, over that in each federal district it has been created not less than three - five educational klasterov which basis will be made by the higher educational institutions which have received the status of national research universities. The structure klasterov can include also branch high schools, average special, is professional - technical and most successful general educational educational institutions. It will allow to raise quality of preparation of all professional categories, will eliminate a disproportion between real requirements of regional labour markets and the developed structure of release of experts.
Modernization and democracy
President Dmitry Medvedev in the Message spoke to Federal Meeting about necessity of changes for the legislation and for the government which should lead to serious positive shifts in the Russian justice. Thereupon many subject to the sharp criticism artificial criminalisation of economic activities in Russia. The basis for such criticism, undoubtedly, exists. Not casually, for example, that settlement of a situation round businessman Gutseriev subjected in the beginning to suit, has been positively apprehended in business circles.
However it is impossible to suppose not only artificial criminalisation, but also artificial decriminalization of economy. On hearing still statements loudly sounding in the end of last century that at creation of the initial capital there can be no economic crimes at all. Is counter-indicative to weaken attention to real criminalisation of economy and today, especially when its most dangerous displays are corruption service economy officials, and also criminal acts of businessmen - corporate raid, manufacture of counterfeit and forged production, leaving from payment of taxes, monopolisation of the markets and etc.
the Success of modernisation of economy in Russia is in many respects curled from creation such partijno - political system which would help the authorities to avoid erroneous decisions. Characteristic feature of such system - party pluralism. Its normal development in Russia is interfered by two circumstances: rigid control from above, directing processes of party building, and an administrative resource which in incomparably bolshej degrees, than other parties, strongest of them " uses; an United Russia .
At its last congress the ideological credo of party - " has been proclaimed; the Russian conservatism . Judging by its treatment, this concept multiplane: it includes not only the conservative relation to all positive in the past, but also the social orientation peculiar to ideology of the left centre, and liberalism which preach right . Ideological pantophagy an United Russia in practice excludes party pluralism in our country in that understanding which it has, for example, in Great Britain, Germany, France, other European countries where voters give alternately a majority of votes that to the right centrists - to conservatives (Christian democrats concern them also), to the left centrists (to which parties sotsial - democratic sense belong). At conservatives in power in Europe, and in the USA, taxes that promotes economic growth decrease. But simultaneously with it social differentiation grows. On a wave of aversion of growth of riches on one pole of a society and poverty - on other voters lead to the power left-centrist parties. At them taxes as expenses for social needs increase start to grow. It promotes a victory of conservative forces on elections. Such a pendulum an alternate finding in power two cores partijno - political forces creates the original mechanism of development of the European countries, helping to avoid harmful extreme measures at the state level.
I Will add two more ascertainings. The first: a brand parties - a constant which is not changed depending on current problems of development of a society. It cannot be changed off and on. If there is a change of ideological credo, it already other party. The second ascertaining: Creation monocentrist partijno - the state system even at presence on a political field of many parties blocks democratic process.
Modernization and foreign policy
If we should be engaged in internal affairs - modernisation, whether that removes it on the second plan foreign policy? The question is not decided. Sometimes in the Russian society voices of those who persistently suggests to correct at first a situation in the country sound, and then to be engaged in a big-times politics in the international affairs. With such statement categorically it do not agree. The foreign policy isolationism is a refusal of creation of optimum external conditions for economy modernisation. And, of course, these conditions are much wider, than even such major business as maintenance of inflow of foreign investments, than, certainly, the diplomatic service too should be engaged.
Achievement of last years is returning of the Russian Federation pushed in the first years of its existence, in number of world powers. A finding on a world Olympus - not a tribute to vanity or hurrah - to patriotism. And it not simply historical tradition of the biggest on state territory in the world, besides located on two continents - in Europe and Asia. Today it is necessity not only for the Russia, but also for normal, positive development of the whole world. Russia - one of poles created multipolar miroustrojstva without which active participation it is impossible to resist to any call, any threat which has hung over mankind. I mean first of all terrorism, distribution of the nuclear weapon, neuregulirovannost dangerous regional conflicts.
Formation of the multipolar world assumes mnogovektornost the Russian foreign policy. But its priority directions are the European states, the USA, China, India, the CIS countries. It, naturally, does not exclude foreign policy and external economic activity of Russia in a direction and other countries, but owing to many reasons development of relations with the named states and associations creates the steady skeleton capable first of all to provide a complex national interesov Russia.
Formation multipolar miroustrojstva has come in the stead of the two-polar world of times cold war . Transition to multicentrism occurred not smoothly, and in counteraction to those circles in the USA which, having added to the arsenal ideology of neoconservatives, tried to run business to the unipolar world. In Bush`s administration - younger bent for to an establishment of hegemony of the USA has reached the culmination. During the same period the full inconsistency of the American doctrine unilateralizma was showed, proclaiming ability of the USA alone and especially in the interests to solve the international problems both in Iraq, and in Afghanistan, and concerning Iran and the North Korea, and Near-Eastern settlement.
Movement in favour of modernisation in Russia has coincided on time with coming to power in the USA Barack Obama`s new Presidential Administration. In some cases it has shown unwillingness to follow a course of the predecessor. It was showed and in an appeal to to reboot relations of the USA with Russia. Certainly, in the United States there are serious enough forces which oppose to it, continuing to aspire to imposing to the whole world of the usages, the favourable USA. However even considering presence of such forces, Russia can use prospect of development of normal relations with the United States which world crisis of the strongest in the economic, military plan the country in the world has not prevented to remain, the basic centre tehniko - technological progress. With orientation of Russia to healthy, mutually advantageous communications with the USA not only does not interfere, but, on the contrary, promotes mnogovektornost our foreign policy.
Transfer of the Russian economy into new model of development coincides on time with one more major process - the agreement on the Customs union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan is reached. Two more CIS countries which have declared the desire to enter negotiations for the purpose of joining to the created union, - Kirghizia and Tajikistan were designated. If the reached arrangements there will come the qualitative moment in Commonwealth development are realised. In case of success of the Customs union the prospect of creation of uniform economic space for variety of the states CIS is looked through. At the correct account of such prospect plans of modernisation of the Russian economy will receive one more substantiation of the necessity and one more important condition for success maintenance.
economy Modernization opens wide horizons before our country. From us working in various fields, the success of the proclaimed course which should acquire real affairs depends.
* Article is prepared on the basis of performance of the president Trading - industrial chamber of the Russian Federation of Evgenie Primakov at session Merkury - club On January, 13th, 2010.