That politicians should know about the votersAll-Russia centre of studying of public opinion (VTSIOM) presents the new book “ the Guidebook to elections: political Russia - 2007 “. Sociologists consider that have made “ an instant picture “ public consciousness on the eve of elections in the State Duma “. About the main players on a political scene and collisions of pre-election autumn the correspondent talks to general director VTSIOM Valery Fedorovym.
: In the beginning of last summer you presented “ the Political dictionary of our time “. Also it has been intended general public. The guidebook is that read not all successively, but only meticulous tourists. To whom is the new book addressed?
Valery Fedorov : the Book is intended for “ the advanced travellers “ on the policy world. After all the persons, making the decision and seriously participating in political process, in any country is a little. In any - without dependence from that, democratic it, authoritative or totalitarian. The number of parties as main players of political process is always limited also. If in the country hundred parties, it means that there is no! The same it is possible to tell and about elite groups, about ideological currents, the organisations “ the third sector “ and the commercial companies which try to play a policy.
Number of the major media carriers having political value, also it is possible to count on fingers. Our book also is addressed representatives of these four kinds of political organisms, which “ do game “ in the politician of any country, including ours.
RG : They badly represent, than there live the people?
Feodors : We have made bold to tell something to these people who by definition should understand a fabric of political process because we have the data visually testifying well: very many representations occurring in a political class are deformed, stereotypic, become outdated. And more likely prevent to do the real policy, than help. We want to tell it about what actually want, wait, that their voters are afraid also of that not priemljut.
RG : That is this original message of a society - the authorities?
Feodors : so. Therefore the circulation is insignificant, all one thousand copies. We address the book not to the interested a policy to inhabitants, and those to whom it can help with their political work. And consequently we do not flatter ourselves dream that it remains in the history of sociology. It is the work, which term of life - all half a year before the nearest voting.
RG : Why you have decided to present in its summer when political life calms down, instead of in the autumn when candidates leave on a home straight?
Feodors : the Book - an instant mould of public opinion of Russians on political and okolopoliticheskim to themes on election campaign start. There is exactly a half a year to the Duma ending when game, by and large, will be made. After all it is obvious that between parliamentary and presidential election of time too little and it is difficult to expect that in this time any essentially new trends will have time to develop. The basic political collision will be on parliamentary elections.
RG : And in general - that the people now are interested in a policy?
Feodors : In general - that is not present. We only hardly have more than half of respondents though as - that is defined by the political preferences. Maximum - two thirds, and that depending on the formulation of questions. The others or have installation not to go at all on elections, or find it difficult to answer. And even for many of those who which - as was defined with the political preferences, they are not something significant, powerful, mature and gained. The relation of people to a policy sharply differs today that we observed 15 - 17 years ago, at the height of revolutionary changes. Today the vector of interest of people lies out of a policy.
RG : And how to estimate such political apathy?
Feodors : It is important result of an epoch of Putin stabilisation. People have understood that revolutions will not help. What not they progress locomotives, and are faster - strictly on Tokvilju - even reject a society back. Such conservative reaction is natural to any postrevolutionary society in which fruits of gains of revolution have not too ripened yet, and here poslevkusie is already felt, and it poslevkusie - bitter enough. All revolutionary modes pass through it. The people were disappointed in fast changes and that these changes even if they will take place, will be to the best. People have got used to that the politicians especially calling on barricades, usually promise all and at once. In summary the person not only does not find something in addition, and, as a rule, also loses something very important: stability, understanding of the place in lives, work, money. We all it already passed in contemporary history at least two times: in 1991 - 1992 when there was a liberalisation of the prices, and in 1998 - m during a default.
And so, otvlekshis from political subjects, having found the person who can subcontract the power, we are happy that are free not to think of these important, heavy questions not having the simple decision now. Also we hope that these questions and will dare further without us. After all all it is clear that a set of elementary recipes, for example, to return all the savings which have burnt down in 1992 or “ to saw Stabfond “ and to all to distribute on three roubles, it is absolute delirium that the cook cannot operate the state. Have understood that the policy is heavy, inertial, very much “ viscous “ process where beginners and laymans are not waited by fast successes.
RG : If the main players on a political scene - parties why there is the special chapter devoted to leaders?
Feodors : Russians very poorly trust in collective institutes. In any. In the Duma, parties, trade unions, the noncommercial organisations, army and even in church. The credibility gap is one of the main signs our long-term “ a transition period “. By the way, the mutual trust in the Soviet system existed. It has been constructed by a principle of self-organising of a society against the authoritative power. A pier, you think that us supervise, and we on - to the live. What is the protection which through has penetrated a Brezhnev`s society? It was possible only at high mutual trust of people, contrary to and besides the power found a way of a survival in the conditions of shortage economy. In 90 - e years we have lost this trust. Game rules have collapsed. The engineer became a shuttle, the member of the Komsomol - the oligarch, and the sportsman - the gangster. Statuses, advancement trajectories, criterion of vital success have exchanged - all became new and obscure. To whom we now trust? As a rule, to relatives, and that only to the relatives. And to two - to three friends. Already at fellow workers we look cautiously. And about sladkorechivyh politicians whom we see only on the TV or we hear by radio, and there is nothing to speak. We a priori concern them so: people “ hang up to us noodles on ears “ they korystny, tell beautiful words, but on mind only money.
RG : And we do not want money?
Feodors : In that is continually that money, according to Russians, corrects the world. So consider 54 % of Russians. About love as the main force is told only by 11 percent. About God - only 10. Our terrestrial god are money. Present stabilisation at the heart of the keeps that the majority of our fellow citizens at last - that had an opportunity to earn - and have understood, how it to make. Someone - five thousand, and someone and five millions. Here it was not in 90 - h years when we spent the first poll about money. Then representations about earning money were rather vague. Today our people have found themselves in money. Those who was not lost during a vague epoch who has come up, that was beat to any coast.
RG : What trumps will show parties on these elections?
Feodors : Will stake on lidersky a resource and to appeal to those politicians who are not included into parties, but play key roles in the state.
RG : It turns out, the ideology of party programs does not play an essential role?
Feodors : Here it is necessary to return to a question, what for chapter is included in the book about leaders. A problem of all parties that the people do not perceive till now party separately from persons. And parties with it should do something. After all the present crisis of the ideologies, any of the former classical does not work for us: neither communistic, nor liberal. We now deal them “ corpses “ which parties diligently eat up. So the ideological resource of party does not rescue.
RG : What nevertheless the real list of leaders which can be chosen?
Feodors: Here we throw the bridge to presidential election. It is obvious that in the autumn one of the cores what will be discussed, - what parties and whom will put forward the candidate for presidents. Considering that Vladimir Putin has declared: for the third term will not go. While at one party of the real candidate is not present. Well except, of course, note candidates who participate in all elections, but never them win. The list of the leaders, capable to be candidates for presidents, is very short. Besides, all of them now non-parties.
RG : In the book there is article devoted to Vladimir Putin. As Russians concern idea “ the third term “?
Feodors : Also it would be desirable, and it is pricked. On the one hand, silly to send in resignation of the authoritative, popular, effective leader, whose work on a post of the president is approved by three quarters of Russians, and to vote for it more than 60 % are again ready. But there is a Constitution and Putin`s clearly expressed desire not to break the Organic law. Here frame conditions. How this collision to leave? Any political party, force or the politician can offer the variant of an exit from deadlock.
Judging by present moods of Russians, Vladimir Putin will be replaced by someone from its command, and the president remains in the politician to realise the strategic plan for development of the country put forward by it. Here a design offered “ an United Russia “ - party which, on polls of voters, will win in elections. Such system will be how much organic? Whether it can be realised, whether its political elite will accept? Whether the society will agree with it? A question while the opened.