Evgenie Yasin: How to secure the savings?this autumn some experts prophesy new crisis in the Russian stock market. Have excited people and forecasts about fast “ to death “ dollar: ostensibly through three - four years it will cease to be world reserve currency and will seriously depreciate. How to secure the savings against all these misfortunes? My council - not to panic. And to try to understand an event essence.
So at us it was moved: when on financial or stock market there are crisis phenomena, citizens are outright frightened. And each time all it seems to them in wonder. People start to panic and by that partly aggravate a situation. That, actually, we also observed during recent easing of quotations of the Russian stock market caused by crisis of mortgage lending in the USA.
However, all it is explainable. History of investment of personal savings at us very short. And unknown always it seems dangerous doubly. As it is impossible to name the previous experience successful. I mean 1990 - e years when privatisation of state property has begun and Russians have received vouchers. Then from these “ securities “ all waited for something unusual, but as a result practically anybody on them has earned nothing. Then there was a crash of financial pyramids of type “ MMM “ and “ Vlastilina “ a default of 1998. Each time Russians lost savings. Therefore today our citizens all time wait for any troubles from the financial markets. And each change on them perceive as an accident harbinger. Even when events develop according to logic of the market.
Long enough Russians were afraid to lose the contributions to banks. And only recently have come to a conclusion that there is no sense to hold savings in dollars and under a pillow. Rouble bank deposits have started to grow, especially when two years ago in the country the system of insurance of contributions has earned. However, the last 7 - 8 years banks basically not “ burn “. Besides, last year within several months profitableness, that is percent which is paid on the contribution, it has appeared positive - more inflations. It was the new qualitative phenomenon. But, unfortunately, now we have lost it, because inflation has again started to grow. And banks began to inform on decrease in the rates under deposits. Probably, in the long term for the contribution for a period of one year rates of 7 percent will prevail. But it at all does not mean that bank investments became less reliable.
Now we will look that occurs in stock market. People began to put up actively money in the action and bonds through share investment funds (PIFS). That too it is quite explainable. With 2004 - 2005 capitalisation of the Russian stock market has started to grow quickly. It meant that financial investments in PIFS became more and more favourable. People have quickly got used to that, having enclosed the means in PIFS, they can receive the revenue in 30 - 50, and even 70 percent.
However a situation in the market all time changes. Today in most cases capitalisation of the Russian companies at that level of their liquidity, quality of management, flexibility and profitableness has reached saturation. Means, to count on that, as there will be a same profit further, as one year ago, already it is impossible. It, as well as with bank contributions, quite objective process. Certainly, the situation is influenced still also by the international stock markets, first of all the USA where big enough debts of the population on mortgage loans were found out. Financial players who were engaged in mortgage lending, have started to withdraw the means worldwide to close balance. Money began to flow away, including from the Russian market.
But I would like to calm our investors. Such fluctuations in general are inherent in stock market. I believe that the present condition will be overcome by November - to December. Certainly, if you want to receive higher guarantees it is possible to shift partially money from PIFS in banks where the percent on contributions below 7 percent will not fall. But all is better - taki to have patience and wait end of the year. You will see that the market again will start to grow. Certainly, not such rates as in 2005 - 2006, but all the same it should be more favourable. If all start to withdraw the investments it will lead to destabilization much to the worst, than echoes of crisis of mortgage lending in the USA.
As to fast death of dollar about it speak years five. Also what? While it something does not occur. Moreover, the rate of Federal reserve system has before our eyes decreased, and the dollar has gone upwards. Certainly, American economy has not the best times. Seven years ago the USA had the big proficiency of the budget and solved, on what to spend this money. Today, on the contrary, it is a question of deficiency. Besides, in the country there is a mistrust to the spent policy that first of all is connected with Iraq, and it is reflected in the general business climate. The public debt continues to grow, and the USA any more do not presume that earlier. All it so. But at the same time the American economy continues to remain the strongest in the world. That all was clear to you, I will result only one example. Per capita in America it is necessary on 38 thousand dollars of gross national product a year, and in Europe - on the average on 25 thousand. Feel a difference even if in more advanced European countries this indicator above 28 thousand dollars does not rise. By the way, in Russia - 10 thousand dollars.
the most advanced branches of economy develop In the USA. It is said that the competition to China has now become aggravated. Yes, it is. But China delivers the mass goods to the United States, and all innovative production do, first of all, in the USA. And that strongest economy which most of all invents the most creative, mobile production. With such luggage at reasonable financial, the economic policy can type the former form very quickly. Next year in the USA - presidential elections, and the new administration will - bondage should rectify the committed errors which, I will repeat, have seriously pulled about the American economy, but at all have not driven her into a corner. So all conversations that it “ will fail “ also that other countries will come forward, I consider unreasonable.
I each time am surprised, when I hear such forecasts from, apparently, competent economists. Also I consider their harmful because they displace those purposes which Russia should put before itself. We should not lull ourselves fairy tales on fast death of dollar, and try to compete for those positions which the American economy has achieved. In it our advancement forward. Not only that oil does not give to us slezt from an oven and more actively to work, so still we will hope for easing of a world competition.
I do not say that it is not necessary to aspire to strengthen rouble positions in the world. It is necessary. But while competition will go between dollar and euro, rouble though will continue to become stronger, but serious danger to the American and European currency does not become. For this purpose there should be a qualitative jerk in the Russian economy. We should build the program of development on competitiveness increase. Here when at us the difference between a market rate of rouble and parity of purchasing capacity will be made even to unit, as in the developed countries then the rouble can really compete with dollar or euro.