The Central Bank has changed the forecast on outflow of the capital from the Russian Federation
If capital outflow proceeds the same rates which are fixed from January till April following the results of a year Russia the negative result waits, recognised in the Central Bank. Will not help and inflow of the capital expected in the second half of the year.
Such is the new forecast of the Central Bank, the first deputy of the chairman of Bank of Russia Alexey Uljukaev has informed. Also has reminded that earlier it was expected “ zero balance “ however that fact that for first four months from the country has already flowed away 42 billion dollars, does not give chances of such issue of a suit.
That money of investors has come to the country, some conditions are necessary, tell Uljukaeva. The first - the global markets should become stable. However, the first vice-president of the Central Bank has made a reservation at once that “ now the situation has worsened, therefore there is an outflow of the capital from emerging markets to more safe actives. The second condition - political stability. “ the agenda of the new Russian government should be clear to investors “ - Uljukaev has declared.
Earlier, we will remind, representatives of the Central Bank predicted that following the results of 2012 the country “ will lose “ about 10,5 billion dollars, and in minekonomrazvitija spoke about 20 billion dollars. In the end of winter the Ministry of Finance - is even more pessimistic according to Minister of Finance Anton Siluanova, from the country by the end of the year will flow away about 40 billion dollars. Today some experts speak already about flight of 100 billion dollars.
the Data for first four months shows that the situation with dynamics of movement of the capital is close to catastrophic, the director of the Center of structural researches of Institute of economic policy of Gaydar Alexey Vedev is assured. “ If similar rates are saved, by the end of the year it will be possible to expect withdrawal from the country of an order of 120 billion dollars “ - he has declared. According to Vedeva, it represents serious danger to the Russian economy as resources for investments leave. That it did not occur, the expert considers, it is necessary to work seriously over attraction of large institutional investors, however while, as he said, such activity practically is absent.