Yury Korchagin: Look-ahead budgets of regions on 2011 - 2013 considerably “ have dried out “
In regions pass public discussions of budgets on trehletku - 2011 - 2013 the Next attempt of transition on programmno - target budgeting has caused redistribution of expenses of the federal budget (FB) under branch articles. Accordingly, planned decrease in deficiency and account part FB on years trehletki at the expense of decrease almost all articles have already led considerable usyhaniju look-ahead budgets of regions, and trace and cities on 2011 - 2013.
Decrease in interbudgetary transfers from FB in regions with almost 1,5 trln rbl. in 2009 to 938,5 mlrd rbl. in 2013 plus residual influence of an economic crisis have led to considerable decrease in look-ahead incomes and expenses of budgets almost all subjects of the Russian Federation in 2011
the budgetary situation under incomes at regions - donors whom economically strong Krasnoyarsk region adjoins also is slightly better. Incomes of its budgets grow on years trehletki, except for 2011 - 104,85 mlrd rbl. (2010 - 107,6 mlrd rbl.) ; 2012 - 110,2; 2013 - 117,9 mlrd rbl. Expenses change slightly. As a result expenses of budgets 2011 and even coincide 2013, and the budgeted deficit for trehletku will decrease with 18 to 5 mlrd rbl.
In dotatsionnoj the Volgograd region a situation close - falling of expenses and incomes in 2011, stabilisation the next years, deficiency decrease for trehletku with 7 mlrd rbl. in 2011 to 3 mlrd rub in 2013
Look-ahead expenses dotatsionnoj the Oryol region on years trehletki do not change almost that means their real annual decrease on a rate of inflation. And even at the Lipetsk region - region - the donor - with budgets not all is smooth. Look-ahead incomes and expenses in 2011 - fall 2012, and only in 2013 budget expenses is almost reached level of 2010, but will not exceed it. As a whole regions carry out installation of the Ministry of Finance on decrease in deficiencies of budgets during trehletki. But at decrease in interbudgetary transfers it has led to look-ahead decrease in 2013 of expenses in all respects, connected with investment of development of the human capital (CHK), and also under article “ national economy “.
Starts budgetary trehletka in regions from decrease in incomes and expenses in real terms taking into account inflation. At Krasnoyarsk region decrease in expenses of the budget will make in 2011 17 %, at the Voronezh region - 16 %, at Volgograd - 10 %, at Lipetsk - 12 %.
roots of budgetary problems dotatsionnyh regions, averages and big cities grow from budgetary reforms of the beginning of the XXI-st century, and also from the short-sighted financial and budgetary policy of the accelerated escalating of economically unreasonable social expenses, non-uniform growth of pensions and advancing growth of incomes of the population in comparison with labour productivity growth. Here it is necessary to add on high inflation even in crisis 2009, “ Supported “ an advancing rise in prices for services and production of housing and communal services and state monopolies the state.
Populism in economy, including regarding non-uniform growth of pensions and advancing growth of a salary, has not led to positive results. The considerable share of pensions is paid annually from FB: in 2011 for pensions it is allocated 890,9 mlrd rbl., all in 2011 on all social payments PF - 2324,4 mlrd rbl. increase of efficiency and optimisation of functions PF that does not occur Is necessary.
In the circumstances Minister of Finance Alexey Kudrin quite reasonably offers gradually and gradually since 2015 to raise pension age. The offer is not supported by the top management of the country yet, but also not rejected in the long-term period. From the former republics USSR only Russia, Belarus, Ukraine and Tajikistan have not changed age of an exit to pensions. In Kazakhstan (wives/ the husband) it already - 58/ 63, in Georgia - 60/ 65, in Estonia - 63/ 63 and etc. Have raised pension age and countries of Eastern Europe. For the fundamental decision of budgetary problems of regions and MO it is necessary to raise labour productivity and efficiency of economy. To it promotes, in particular, and decrease in tax burden on business that raises investment appeal of the country. And it in the Russian Federation, on the contrary, increases in 2011 - employers from next year will pay insurance payments at a rate of 34 % from a wages fund, instead of 26 %, as now. Have returned back when this tax made 35,6 % and suppressed economy, inflating its shadow sector.
At the expense of increase in insurance payments in 2011 incomes TFOMS will grow jump in 1,6 times. But this effect will be time and minuses at the expense of decrease in receipts of the tax to incomes of physical persons (increase in salaries in envelopes), shadow economy growth will move single pluses.
we Will remind that in the developed countries of the world the refinancing rate (or its analogue) is lowered to zero or is close to it for the purpose of revival of business activity. And cheap credits, low inflation, low tax burden for economy, high quality of the human capital and life in aggregate promote an overcoming the crisis and growth of gross national product at the expense of sector of high technologies and innovative economy. In Russia all this set - while one of the worst.
In interbudgetary relations there is an obvious disbalance of interests of subjects of the Russian Federation and their capitals. External equation of the consolidated budgets of subjects of the Russian Federation does not reflect their deep razbalansirovannost, considerable deficiencies of budgets of cities of the Russian Federation, their general budgetary insufficiency. And this problem of the largest cities can be solved, having transferred to them legislatively completely NDFL according to their special importance. And logic here obvious enough - all local taxes will be connected with personal property of the citizen - with its real estate and incomes.
And obviously one - in the country and regions was ripened unpopular, but by economy necessary for development and long-term stabilisation of financial and budgetary systems of a measure on gradual, step-by-step increase in pension age, on decrease, instead of growth of tax burden on business. Has ripened necessity of transition to ascending scale NDFL. Have under itself scientific and economic soil of the offer on lengthening of labour year in the Russian Federation in working hours. Labour productivity at us one of the lowest, and on number of holidays in a year and on brevity of working week - we one of leaders in the world. And without realisation of these unpopular measures it will be inconvenient to carry out country and economy modernisation.
(over $80 for barrel) and growing oil and gas incomes can induce the High prices for oil and gas again the authorities on unreasonable increase in social and other expenses change generated on trehletku the rigid budgetary policy focused on result. As it already was in the recent past. But then the Dutch illness of national economy only will become aggravated. Well and additional oil and gas incomes of a rise in prices it would be quite good to direct on development of the human capital as major factor of long-term development of modern economy, executing the budgetary Message of the president of the Russian Federation, and also in development of an infrastructure of regions. And not to raise taxes to business, as well as to property of rather poor citizens and formed middle class. Let it will ripen.