Interest rates under bank contributions will not change in the near future
Agency on insurance of contributions (ASV) does not support return to a step scale when the contribution is guaranteed not completely, and, say, on 90 %, and from the remained 10 % the part is paid only. Such idea have stated in the Central Bank, considering that this measure will make sober investors who have absolutely lost fear a little and bear money under high percent in potentially problem banks. According to general director ASV Alexander Turbanova, agency categorically against return to a step scale, considering that it at the best is senseless, and in the worst - is harmful, as does not allow to insurance system to carry out the basic function - to interfere with a panic of investors. if the investor knows that 10 % will lose, it at panic approach will necessarily take away money from bank because does not want to lose 10 %, any rouble, any copeck, - head ASV considers. Is has shown the British experiment - they the first have cancelled a step scale when have seen that banks began to be besieged by investors and the system of insurance of contributions has not worked. And at us has worked, because in the autumn of 2008 the step scale has been cancelled, and we have passed to flat to a scale also have entered a full indemnification under contributions to 700 thousand roubles .
Andrey Melnikov, zamgendirektora ASV, says that national systems of insurance of contributions have already passed this stage. there was an indicative European experience when economists said that it is necessary to divide risks between investors and banks, it leads to responsible behaviour and as actually all pripeklo, they there and then within the limits of the European union have passed to flat to a scale. Because only it is clear to the investor. And these of 90 % in the theory are good, but in life do not work. It does not stop investors. And experience of Great Britain is all has shown. Therefore we would not recommend something to change .
to Raise a lath of insurance compensation, according to ASV, now too it is not meaningful, so the full guarantee under contributions to 700 thousand both was, and remains. The population and without that has actually filled up banks with money, having opened last year accounts for the record sum - 2,3 trln rbl. As a result the total amount of means on contributions has grown to 9,8 bln. Under the base scenario of agency in 2011 of means of the population in bank system will increase on 2,6 - 2,8 trln roubles. Thus, by the end of this year on bank accounts will accumulate 12,4 - 12,6 trln national money.
According to Andrey Melnikova, bank system such inflow digest in credits cannot and it is protected in the most effective way - decrease in rates. for a year falling of rates was very serious. The average level of interest rates under contributions has decreased on 5 %. Average rates under contributions to 100 thousand rbl. Have fallen to 7,5 %, on larger investments - to 7,7 % - have counted up in ASV. Thus, the average percent on rouble deposits has appeared below a rate of inflation (8,8 % following the results of a year).
rates of inflation have essentially increased In the beginning of 2011. the first quarter will be heavy enough from the point of view of a rise in prices. Most likely, grocery inflation will not lower rates of increase, the monetary weight thus continues to grow, therefore in 2011 we will observe also strengthening of inflationary pressure. It will amplify also at the expense of growth of tariffs of housing and communal services, growth of cost of the electric power, - the analyst " warns; Investment cafe Anton Safonov. - Only following the results of January the rise in prices has reached 2,4 % that is very high value. Now for achievement of 7 % following the results of a year the rise in prices should not exceed 0,4 % on the average. Thus it hardly will strongly be slowed down in February and on monthly results will be less than 1,5 %. Thus, according to the optimistical scenario, inflation in 2011 will make 7,5 - 8 %. Possibly, within a year we will repeatedly see increase of the official forecast as it was last year. Quite probably that high rates of increase of the prices will remain throughout all 2011 and then they will exceed 10 % .
Considerable growth of inflation in the end of December was predicted by the head of the Savings Bank Herman Gref. He said that in case of such succession of events in March banks should raise rates under contributions. But now bankers, seemingly, are not adjusted to march in step with a rise in prices even if the refinancing rate will grow. considering considerable superfluous liquidity, we do not expect increase of rates under contributions in the near future, despite increase in rates of inflation. Also we do not expect growth of rates under credits in the near future. The bank yet does not plan to raise interest rates under contributions - Pavel Gurin, chairman of the board Rajffajzenbanka informs. Are not going to raise rates and other large retail banks, in particular URALSIB and ยาม24. At the moment we do not see preconditions to increase of rates under deposits. As to inflation, it not a major factor in change of rates under contributions. More likely, defining cost of attraction of means in the market and requirement of bank for liquidity " here is; - Maria Saenko, the deputy chief of management of passive and commission operations ยาม24 explains. Ivan Pjatkov, the director of department of products and technologies of Promsvjazbanka agree that now dynamics of rates under contributions is to a lesser degree defined by the inflation factor. in economy it is a lot of money, and banks do not test deficiency of resources, and accordingly, have no stimulus actively to compete in the market of means of physical persons at the expense of the price, - he considers. - I think that the bearish trend of interest rates which we saw in 2010, will fade. The increase in requirement of bank sector in resources at expansion of volumes of crediting, especially retail " can become the factor of growth of rates;. Thus growth of rates under contributions to foreign currency is improbable, Anna Repnikova, the chief of department of working out and introduction of products of RosEvroBanka believes. On the one hand on rates inflation will press, and with another - their sharp growth will be counteracted by decrease in rates under the credits, headed by the largest banks - she has underlined.
In the Savings Bank too are extremely careful. the bank can increase profitableness of deposits if macroeconomic indicators start to change (will raise the rate of inflation, rates of crediting and etc. will be accelerated) But at present such plans are not present. In plans - to watch that will occur in the market - Natalia Konovalova, the director of management of contributions and investment products of physical persons of the Savings Bank has informed. There have let know that this year will stimulate inflow of means for current accounts (including kartscheta) which manage to bank much more cheaply. Therefore it is necessary to expect introduction of the various services stimulating clearing settlements of citizens, instead of encouragement of a savings heat of the population. Besides, already in the first quarter the Savings Bank completely will change a ruler of contributions. Three base contributions will be entered only: with charge of percent in the end of term, with possibility of replenishment and with possibility of replenishment and partial removal. The ruler will be periodically supplemented with special deposits which will operate certain time or to be guided by various client groups. Most likely, under such single actions there will be an increase of rates.
In immediate prospects of the rate to raise, will not go down. They remain at the present level, at least the nearest half a year - consider in ASV.
Volume of payments ASV on insured events, million rbl.