Rus News Journal

The OPEC waits

for a quota on oil recovery can be increased

the OPEC will call an extreme meeting in the event that the price of barrel of oil will reach 100 dollars. It was declared by the minister of oil of Kuwait sheikh Amed al - Abdalla the expert - Sabah, informs ITAR - TASS. Analysts suppose that the prices can fly up to 100 dollars for barrel, but it will be speculative growth. And now the OPEC tries to regulate the factors, which organisations are not under control and are not caused by a supply and demand disbalance that is fraught with creation of an additional canopy of the offer over the market.

OPEC regular session is appointed to December, 22nd, 2009 and will pass in capital of Angola to Luanda. But, without waiting this term, exporters of oil can gather earlier in case of sharp jump of the prices for raw materials. As already wrote daily, the quantity optsionnyh contracts on oil purchase in March at the price of 100 dollars for barrel promptly grows, and for last month the gain has made 5,9 %. Besides, forward contracts on oil of mark Brๅnt with delivery in December, 2017 last week have grown in the price to 99,97 dollars for barrel. It is the highest price level since October of last year.

earlier the president of the OPEC Jose Botelo de Vaskonselos has declared that the organisation can increase volumes of export of oil in case barrel cost steadily leaves for 75 dollars. At the initiative of Saudi Arabia in the OPEC the arrangement that in present economic conditions the price band most comprehensible to barrel is 65 - 75 dollars has been reached. And the cartel was not going to raise until recently a quota on extraction. First of all it is caused by that in the world is enough stocks of crude oil and the market is oversaturated by raw materials.

according to the International power agency (MEA), in OESR (the Organizations of economic cooperation and development) as a whole make stocks of oil and oil products nearby 2,75 mlrd barrels. It is equivalent to 62 days of consumption. In the past for increase of quotas it was required, that volumes of stocks have fallen below level, sufficient approximately for 53 days of consumption, the analyst on raw markets UniCredit Group Johen Hittsfeld marks.

However, last data about stocks in the countries OESR concerns only August, 2009. The current trend can be tracked on dynamics of stocks in the USA where volumes of crude oil, gasoline and oven fuel are on a five years` maximum. Stocks of oven fuel which exceed five years` level on 32 % are especially great in the United States. At the same time for last two weeks the quantity of stocks of oven fuel in storehouses was reduced to 7 million barrels a day that absolutely contradicted the general expectations. It seems that stocks of this mineral oil in the USA at last - that have reached turn points, believes g - n Hittsfeld so stocks of oil and oil products in OESR, probably, are at much lower levels, than till now showed data MEA.

Thus, after substantial increase of the prices for oil during the current year and revision of forecasts of economic growth and increase in demand at oil of IMF and MEA increase of quotas on OPEC oil recovery resolutely is late, analyst UniCredit Group considers.

it is valid, now in the market there are fears that speculative euphoria can lead to rise in prices for oil to 100 dollars for barrel in case of continuation of easing of dollar and growth of share indexes, analyst IFD " marks; Kapital “ Vitaly Krjukov. Thus it is necessary to understand that this growth will be caused not by fundamental factors (sharp growth of demand or decrease in stocks), and the superfluous offer of cheap money in world economy. In this situation of the OPEC tries to regulate speculative not dependent on balance of supply and demand factors the additional offer of raw materials.

in opinion g - on Krjukova, in short term it can cool some a heat of speculators and they will be already afraid strongly to price out, understanding that it can turn back activization of actions of the OPEC. Nevertheless in intermediate term prospect it only will even more worsen a weak fundamental picture on oil and can lead to the next increase in stocks of raw materials in storehouses at slack demand. Raw materials stocks only began to be reduced a little in connection with seasonal increase in demand, therefore cartel actions are in the long term fraught with rather negative consequences. It is necessary to notice also that the OPEC already gradually increases oil deliveries, without observing a quota to use a current conjuncture. Saudi Arabia in December plans to increase the oil offer.

as a matter of fact, the OPEC is in a stalemate. On the one hand, it is necessary not to admit a sharp price hike as it threatens rates of restoration of economy, and it is cartel can make only through increase in deliveries. On the other hand, the organisation tries to regulate factors which are not under control to it and are not caused by a supply and demand disbalance that threatens with creation of an additional canopy of the offer over the market, analyst IFD " considers; Kapital “.