Analyst: the Default of Greece is inevitable
From different directions conversations on threat of the second wave of a world economic crisis are audible. In a course vebinara independent analytical agency of Investment cafe participants of a meeting have discussed, threat of recession is how much real and that it is possible to make already now to secure itself against its possible consequences.
Grigory Birg, with orukovoditel analytical department of Investment cafe: it is necessary to notice that the thought that waits for us W - figurative recession, is not new. If you remember, this theme was actively discussed from the crisis beginning. Now at this theory has simply appeared more supporters because there was more obvious an essential delay of growth of economy. Now it is considered to be that economic growth in the developed countries will be about zero, or falling in general will begin. George Soros and Nuriel Rubini believe that the American economy already in recession. And if it is possible to disagree with their opinion, having referred to role of these financiers to deny opinion of the majority of Americans which consider that the country already is in recession, difficult.
Doubting, but warning that the probability of recession is high, becomes more and more. In their numbers the largest managing directors and leading economists of the world. Whether Obosnovanny fears and assumptions? Let`s look at indexes of industrial production of America. The result that is called, is available. We see appreciable reduction of all indexes from the beginning of year, and half from them already shows decrease in industrial outputs.
the Same picture and in Europe. And, considering integrirovannost world economy, it is impossible to consider an event in an eurozone without possible influence on the USA, China and so on.
That occurs in China? While only preliminary results are known, but they are not consolatory. We see that in Europe there is a tendency to delay of economic growth. In addition, it limits possibilities of donors of the financial help to the problem countries. It is necessary to notice that the given tendency is inherent not only Europe: growth is slowed down in such key states, as China, Japan and the USA.
it is Now clear that both rounds of quantitative softening have not worked properly on economy of the USA and world economy. There was a rapid growth of demand for brave actives which as it was found out, has not been supported by stable economic growth. It is necessary to notice also that efficiency so-called “ a twist “ also in doubt. Having lowered rates of long-term crediting a little, the Federal reserve is going to push the real estate market to restoration. But let`s argue sensibly. Unemployment in the country still above 9 %, growth industrial Manufactures it is reduced that can lead to the further growth of unemployment. Thus 8 from 10 American citizens consider that the country already in recession. All discuss the second wave of crisis which has begun with the real estate market. Be you the average American, you would buy the house in the present state of affairs? Personally I - was not present. For this reason I think, “ a twist “ will not render due influence on economy of the USA.
the Exit one: to take the fiscal measures stimulating economy in the short-term period, but directed on long-term reduction of a budgeted deficit, and also on public debt reduction in farther prospect.
In Europe on - former cannot agree concerning measures for prevention of distribution of crisis. In the meantime the default of Greece is inevitable, and for all it will be better, if it occurs organizovanno, instead of during that moment, when at investors the patience will burst and will hand over nerves. Also it is desirable before the event will definitively knock down the European bank system that will lead to the next bank crisis and liquidity crisis.
it is doubtless, now it is better than business in Russia, than were in 2008, thanks to the high prices for oil first of all. But that is interesting: if for the balanced budget in 2008 was the prices for oil in 60 dollars now as all of us see from the schedule, the price should be above 115 dollars that there was no budgeted deficit enough. That is in respect of dependence of economy on raw materials we have taken a step back.
In addition further it will be impossible to make similar statements as there will be no division of incomes of the budget on oil and gas and not oil and gas. It is necessary to give to due our monetary authorities for more flexible rouble exchange rate and process of appreciable reduction of a short-term external debt.
Vinchentso Trani, p redsedatel board of directors IK Concern General Invest: the Economy of the USA, the country most developed for today, shows recession. The budgeted deficit since 1974 has created a huge debt receivable which has overcome a mark in 600 mlrd dollars. The saved up trading deficiency makes 8 trln dollars. The basic negative tendency was showed since 1996.
Two thirds of requirements of the USA in oil products are closed by import. It, on the one hand, explains active actions of the USA in struggle for democracy in oil-producing countries. With another - provokes financial instability of the USA.
the American dollar has value while all think that it has value. All countries - exporters trust dollar and the sum in 8 trln, being based only on this principle of trust. The risk which is incurred by exporters and investors, is insufficiently covered. The financial situation of the USA not so is stable.
it is possible, large investors are not interested in falling of the American currency and not begin to sell the American state bonds at a time. In a situation in which there was America, there are two obvious ways out:
1. To lower cost of oil for itself. It can achieve through military operations in the north of Africa and the Near East. In this case the purpose of the USA - to operate the prices for power resources of the countries entering into this zone of interests.
2. To cause instability of the European currency that on its background the American dollar seemed more favourable.
the Economic crisis which has entailed all these factors, was aggravated with a credibility gap. In the financial market there are enough gamble, but all markets are among themselves closely connected and open, so always there is a danger to some extent to destabilise conditions. Such actions frequently are the key moments of games of politics.
the European Union, certainly, is stronger than speculators, but problems in the market will be, and is frequent enough. But these problems concern more likely a securities market, instead of to real economy, besides, that problems are here again, and there. Therefore I I consider that the global economic crisis will manage to be avoided. Will be a lot of global financial, but operated crises.
Russia in these conditions - investment paradise. The country in current conditions has a number of advantages: a low debit rating in a combination to growing gross national product; developing economy; the stable government; absence of defaults throughout long time; improvement of conditions of the taxation for the foreign investors who are carrying out the activity in stock market of Russia.
Igor Bondarenko, the operating partner UNIVERSITY Consulting: the Financial market has considerably grown last 30 years. According to McKinsey, (a regional debt plus the share market) reached the financial market of the USA of 462 % of gross national product, in Europe - 400 % of gross national product on the end of 2010. In Russia this indicator makes about 140 %.
growth of bank actives in Russia was slowed down and for July, 1st, 2011 made only 72,9 % of gross national product. After 2009 the relation of own capital to actives has decreased from 16 % to 14 %. Washing away of the capital from bank sector proceeds. Key bank risks: short-term passives (population deposits), “ letuchest “ own capital, private banks are insufficiently capitalised. The Russian bank system copies the majority of problems of global banks and is a little adapted for problems of regional development.