The season of burning credits
the Savings Bank has lifted Two weeks ago rates under consumer credits. After it other banks were pulled also, having lifted rates under credits cash. So potential borrowers need to hurry — it is not excluded that by the end of summer of the rate will lift all.
forecasts concerning rise in price of the credits, sounding in the beginning of year, start to come true. In the beginning of July the Savings Bank has informed on increase of rates under consumer credits on the average growth has made 1,5 %. Now consumer credits the Savings Bank gives out a maximum under 23,5 % annual in roubles (there were 22 %) and under 20,5 % annual in currency (there were 19 %). We will notice, in March the Savings Bank already raised rates under credits for citizens then growth has averaged 2 % so the maximum rate under credits of the largest bank is less than for four months has grown on 3,5 %.
In the Savings Bank, however, insist that changes of rates under consumer credits cannot be characterised unequivocally as increase. " the made updating has expanded a circle of clients for which the rate is defined individually. Therefore not for all categories of our borrowers this change will pour out in rate increase " the director of management of retail crediting of the Savings Bank Natalia Alymova speaks. Really, if earlier the minimum rate for corporate clients has been established by the Savings Bank at level of 17 % now it is lowered to 16 %. But all the same it above, than in the beginning of year, salary clients of the Savings Bank can remember now with nostalgia rates 14,4 - 15,3 % which were accessible to them in February.
there is no saying, how much unexpected there was a July news to potential borrowers of bank. Opinion that rates under credits for the population will grow in second half of 2012, in March representatives both retail banks, and the Central Bank voiced. In 20 - h dates of June at the Petersburg economic forum the head of the Savings Bank Herman Gref has declared to journalists: " the Short-term forecast under rates such that rates, unfortunately, maybe, still will grow up in the near future ".
Apparently, to these forecasts the people all - taki listens. Expectation of growth of interest rates increases a stream of the citizens converted behind loans in banks. Thus the research spent rekrutingovym by portal Superjob. ru, has shown that there is more than half from 2,5 thousand respondents (54 %) considers credits as direct road to a debt hole and a deceit. That is characteristic, five years ago a share of those who believes that credits malicious, was more modest: 33 %. Nevertheless, 42 % of economically active respondents all the same credits take.
It is no wonder that the sector of retail crediting from the beginning of year dynamically grew. According to the Central Bank data, volume of retail credit portfolios of the Russian banks for January May, 2012 has increased by 14,7 % whereas the similar indicator of last year has made 8,7 %. Thus, for example, in the Savings Bank the volume of the credits which have been given out to physical persons, for the first half of the year has grown on 24,2 %.
under credits cash bankers explain Last increase of rates deficiency of liquidity and a cost rise in price fondirovanija. " the Situation with liquidity at banks in comparison with the beginning of year has worsened. If the general debts of banks against the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance in the beginning of year made an order 1,1 trln rbl. now these obligations have grown to 1,8 trln rbl., thus the liquid position of banks was reduced almost to 50 % " the analyst Rajffajzenbanka Denis Poryvaj speaks.
Retail banks now involve means basically at the expense of deposits of physical persons and compete with each other can here exclusively at the expense of rates. " for last year cost fondirovanija in roubles for banks has grown. It is difficult to speak about all banks, probably on the average on 1 - 1,5 % " the head of department on development of credits by cash of Alpha bank Dmitry Semkov tells. As a result srednerynochnaja the price of credits for borrowers, by estimations of bankers, has risen in this time on the average on 2 - 3 %. " I would estimate now srednerynochnuju the rate under consumer credits at level 22 - 24 %, the head of management of retail business of the Moscow credit bank Alexey Kosjakov speaks.
thus in the market many advertising offers credits under 14 - 17 % annual, but, according to bankers, are lower bound of the marketing rates addressed to a small segment of clientele. " The difference between the advertising rate and that which is received as a result by the client, happens enough essential " Dmitry Semkov speaks. Now, for example, it can make to 8 % of the annual. For foreign clients of the rate start today on the average from 20 %.
Actually to define average cost of a loan difficult enough because a top - 20 banks use technology Risk Based Pricing on which the rate is established individually. Borrowers can estimate effect, if before to go to bank behind cheap money, will count approximate cost of a potential loan on " the credit calculator ".
Competitors of the State Banks though and without pleasure, but recognise what to offer now the lowest rates to new clients presume to itself only the State Banks the Savings Bank (from 20 %), VTB 24 (from 22 %), Rosselhozbank (from 22 %). The bank of Moscow till the end of August carries out the advertising action in which frameworks of the rate under the credit vary from 10,5 % to 38 % annual in roubles. How much in practice the client of Bank of Moscow will pay, to define uneasy because the rate size in this case depends not only on individual conditions, but also from difficult structured " the percentage periods ".
Besides, low rates are declared basically under credits with maintenance when the bank will demand from you either the guarantee, or pledge in the form of apartment or the car. Besides it will be necessary to bear not only the inquiry 2 - NDFL, but sometimes and the inquiry from a psychoneurological clinic as it is got in Uralsk reconstruction and development bank (12 %). Other possibility to receive extremely low rate to choose the credit with rather small term. For example, the Moscow credit bank (MKB) declares that the credit to 3 million rbl. within a year is ready to give under 10 % annual. But if in details to study offers of large retail banks (see the table), it will appear that at the same rates and declarations on absence of the additional commissions and gathering, each bank nevertheless has a, secret calculator.
the most reasonable strategy for the client the reference in bank through which he gets wages now looks. That confirm, including, actions of the Savings Bank which has lowered cost of a loan on 1 % for this least brave category of borrowers. " if you look at offers for corporate clients, it will appear that they at all banks about identical: where - that at level 17 - 19 % annual " Dmitry Semkov marks.
But the main thing if you want to take the credit, to do it it is necessary, seemingly, as soon as possible. Operating partner Frank Research Group Yury Gribanov reminds that increase of rates by the Savings Bank Signal for the market more serious, than even increase of the rate of refinancing of the Central Bank.
that the Savings Bank will be followed by other banks, almost nobody doubts. Moreover, bankers now also are engaged in it: for example, the Alpha bank and MKB was already lifted by the maximum rates under credits for 1 %. " I Think, the Savings Bank we will see effect of increase of rates within the next two weeks month " Alexey Kosjakov foretells. " as a whole the forecast on the financial market till the end of the year negative so to expect any dumping offers in the market it is not necessary " Dmitry Semkov summarises.
Another matter that bankers too do not promise sharp growth of rates, as rates and so are already great. But all the same the situation develops not in the best image for borrowers. " most likely, the majority of players will be corrected by rates towards increase till the end of summer. And further Banks will live a high season on those rates to which they have in this time come nearer " Alexey Kosjakov considers.
differently, bankers expect to win back all potential risks till the end of summer, and at the expense of growth of rates under consumer credits apparently, other variants at them while are not present. " We plan to spend updating of price conditions in the end of July, having raised current level of the base rate under credits cash approximately on 1 %. Necessity of such actions is called by proceeding growth of cost fondirovanija, first of all growth of rates under contributions of physical persons " vice-president VTB 24 Ivan Lebedev speaks.
growth of rates under contributions of citizens ascertains also Bank of Russia. The Central Bank traces dynamics of the average maximum rate under deposits at ten banks leaders on attraction of means of physical persons: she has grown by July, 1st from the beginning of year on 0,42 %, to 9,93 %. However this indicator does not consider last increase of the rate under contributions the Savings Bank. On July, 3rd the bank has started the new contribution " At height " depending on its term and the sum the rate is established at level 7,25 - 8,75 %.
If the situation in the financial market will worsen, and it is rather probable, quite possible that the Savings Bank will lift rates once again. At least, on a direct question: a leah plans bank in visible prospect once again to raise rates under those or other credits, an unambiguous answer there do not give. According to Natalia Alymovoj, " now the Savings Bank considers different scenarios of succession of events, definiteness while is not present ".
it is interesting to force to work thus as bankers at times manage on itself negative expectations of borrowers. For example, such, as expectation of growth of unemployment. Past week bank " Opening " in common with the insurer " Opening Insurance " Has started the program of insurance of financial risks of the borrowers connected with " not voluntary loss of the basic place of work ". As confirms bank, participation in this program will give the chance to the borrower who has remained without work, to repay the credit at the expense of the insurance company.
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