That there will be with a rouble exchange rate, dollar, an euro1. What will be with a rouble exchange rate?
our forecast for June sounded so: in connection with crisis moods the dollar will not cost cheaper 31 rbl. It and did not cost: on June, 28th the dollar official rate has made 32,83 rbl. of the Central Bank for this month has shown that is capable to allow from time to time to dollar very strongly to rise in price, but then the American currency so strongly became cheaper. Nevertheless it is not so strong, that it was possible to speak about return to a course which was in the beginning of May. Differently, the Central Bank constantly let know that the dollar in Russia now should be rather expensive.
as a substantiation of this dearness of the Central Bank could refer to the most different circumstances. Debt and bank crisis in Europe not only is not overcome, but constantly goes deep. In such conditions the dollar should be expensive in the world currency market, and Russia as a whole follows its tendencies.
the World prices for oil in June have continued the falling, and the Russian currency was and remains raw (anyway so players in the Russian currency market consider, co-ordinating the game to a status of the world oil prices).
At last, in the conditions of the European debt crisis world financial speculators are nervous and show care first of all in game in the markets of developing countries which Russia concerns also. So it is not necessary to expect inflow of money for these markets, there will be an outflow more likely. And at outflow of money of foreign investors and speculators from Russia the rouble should faint.
our forecast: as on all these circumstances of the Central Bank has a just cause to refer and in July, the dollar will not be cheaper 32 rbl.
2. What will be with the Russian prices?
in the forecast for June we noticed that the May rise in price of dollar will have time to affect the Russian prices and inflation will be accelerated to 0,6 %.
Definitive inflationary results of June are not brought yet, but it is possible to consider the forecast completely come true as as of June, 25th consumer prices in Russia from the beginning of month have grown already on 0,5 %. We will notice that inflation this June has appeared considerably above, than in the past when it has made 0,2 %.
Unconditional leaders of a rise in price of a steel belokochannaja cabbage (its price has grown at once on 22,4 %) and a potato (a gain in 21,3 %). Journey on transport Thus began to rise in price. So, the price of the ticket for the municipal bus as a whole in Russia became above on 2,0 %, and the ticket for a trolley bus on 1,9 %.
While inflation in 2012 is much less, than in 2011 - m 2,8 % against 4,9 %. However it is necessary to consider that last year tariffs for utilities have raised in January, and this year increase have transferred for July and September. Thus, citizens still will feel inflationary effect of tariffs.
As inflation was accelerated in June, sellers have felt taste to rise in prices and will try in this question in July not to lag behind the state. A pier, you raise tariffs why us not to make the goods more expensively? After all all the same inflation grows, and it is necessary to compensate the losses by rise in prices.
Besides, will obviously continue to play the role an event in May rouble easing. Completely to reflect podeshevenie national currency in the prices for the import goods (is more correct to use it podeshevenie as a pretext for a raising of the prices), time is necessary.
our forecast: growth of tariffs and the rate of exchange will lead to that the prices in July will grow more than on 1,5 %.
3. What will be with the world prices for oil?
our June forecast consisted in the following: The price in $105 for barrel North Sea Brent, established by the end of May, is extremely high, and speculators can consider that it is too expensive experiencing economic difficulties of the USA and to the European countries.
therefore, referring to a lack of demand of the world, speculators in June will not go a bull, and the world prices for oil will not exceed $109 for barrel.
it is valid, speculators did not begin to go a bull: they only also said that in the world insufficient demand for oil, and oil futures sold. As a result the price not only has fallen below level in $100 for barrel, but also by the end of month has reached $92.
Thus any occasions suited sale. In particular, more low psychologically important boundary in $100 for price barrel have fallen after news that in May in the USA has been created only 69 thousand workplaces (twice less, than analysts) predicted, and level of the American unemployment has grown to 8,2 %. Players in the world oil market have considered it as the certificate of that the economy of the USA develops too slowly that it was possible to expect growth of demand for oil.
thus stocks of crude oil in Kashinge (State of Oklahoma) where tankers unload, for example, from Saudi Arabia, have already reached record level. That is oil in the American market has enough for processing. Saudi Arabia, in turn, has declared that has already increased oil deliveries so from - for the European embargo on purchases of the Iranian oil of deficiency in the world will not be. As the status of the European debitor countries is now so sad that about fast economic growth in Europe and speech cannot be so the European demand for oil will not grow, especially on oil at the ultrahigh prices.
so, from the point of view of a supply and demand parity as oil speculators consider, the prices should not grow, and fall. Now a question in when this falling should stop. Eventually, in present conditions of the hardest debt and bank crisis in Europe, for game in the world financial market not so it is a lot of attractive tools. And speculators, most likely, not begin to get rid completely of such tool, as oil futures.
our forecast: as speculators were yet definitively discouraged in oil, in July it will not be cheaper than $88 for barrel.
4. What will be with a dollar exchange rate to euro?
in the forecast for June we foretold that the pressing forward of speculators to get rid of euro will not allow uniform European currency to cost more expensive of $1,26. The forecast has completely come true on June, 27th for euro gave $1,25.
Currency speculators should consider that circumstance that the European financial crisis has continued the deepening and has passed in large-scale crisis of bank system. All the month long rating agencies only also were engaged in that reduced a credit rating to the largest banks of the most different countries including not mentioned by debt crisis of Germany and Austria. And in Spain the bank system on a broader scale has endured the present crash, and the authorities, declaring absence of money for rescue of own banks, have asked ˆ100 mlrd from the European fund of the help. Business has reached that ETSB and Eurocommission have proposed to reform completely the European bank system and to create the European bank union which is not under control to the national authorities.
in the end of a month speculators argued on creation possibility the national authorities of the European financial union release of uniform European bonds would become which symbol. However this offer continued to encounter German chancellor Angela Merkel resistance which declared that release of uniform bonds would mean that Germany should pay on another`s debts. Speculators as a result have considered that the European debt crisis at all has no decisions and the destiny of uniform European currency remains under very big question. And in the absence of prospects of growth of an euro exchange rate it is not necessary and to try to play on its increase from uniform European currency it is just necessary to keep as it is possible further.
Our forecast: in July speculators will be adjusted in relation to euro exclusively sceptically, and its course will not exceed $1,27.