Political task force together with a portal " Political technologies " has prepared the second report " the Index of election of heads of subjects of the Russian Federation ". Experts have come to a conclusion that 13 governors have no chances " within the limits of any how much - nibud free and open elective procedure " and the report has received the name " Baker`s dozen not selected ". Experts consider that governor`s elections in October will be accompanied by scandals and protests and the federal authority should reconsider game rules.
we will remind, the first index of election of heads of regions has been published in March of this year in connection with restoration of institute of elections (see " " from March, 30th). Then experts have counted 20 governors, which chances of re-election " confidently aspire to zero ". In the report the expert estimation of election of 74 heads has been given, from the list have been excluded Dagestan " from - for basic impossibility of carrying out of direct elections " and also subjects where heads were just replaced or already declared resignation, as the head of Moscow suburbs Boris Gromov.
in the new report the estimation was received by all governors (except for the same Dagestan). In group with an index And (" election is guaranteed ") 18 heads of regions (in their March was 14), thus the two of favourites with an index And + (" have got; absolutely selected ") Remained immutable the head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov and the Kemerovo governor Aman Tuleyev. In the report it is noticed that criteria of estimations more than 40 experts of a steel personal popularity of head, degree of political competition and socially - economic well-being in region, and also degree of influence of an administrative resource on results of elections.
thus three governors who will already participate in elections this year, and #150 have got to group And only; Oleg Kozhemjako (Amur region), Evgenie Savchenko (Belgorod region) and Sergey Mitin (Novgorod region). And here the head of the Bryansk region Nikolay Denin has got only to group With (" probability of election below an average ") . In " an United Russia " till now expressed confidence of Nikolay Denina`s ability to be re-elected. However experts notice that in region there are conflicts of elite and a problem to the relation to the governor of the population. " he will not lose to the technical candidate, therefore a main point of Bryansk elections in readiness of opposition to agree " has explained " " head of Political task force Konstantin Kalachev. The expert believes that beyond the Bryansk region which always differed special application of an administrative resource (this region during presidential and elections to Duma requested one of the greatest parties otkrepitelnyh in the Central Electoral Commission), the opposition will steadfastly watch. And not only system the affinity of region to capital will affect it also.
in group In (" high chances of election ") 17 heads, in group With 34. Thus three governors from this group have index C - and risk to get over in group D (" the probability of election aspires to zero ") . Among them Alexey Orlov (Kalmykia), Alexander Berdnikov (Republic Altai) and Sergey Jastrebov (Yaroslavl region). As experts, at mister Berdnikov " explain; always were imidzhevye problems " and in group D it has not appeared only from - for recent opening of the airport, governor Jastrebova name initially unsuccessful choice which has called mistrust of the population. And to the new head of Kalmykia in a minus experts put the conflict with eks - the president of Kalmykia Kirsanom Ilyumzhinov who enjoys confidence till now of the population and could be overcome for the former fast on elections, and also inability peacefully to resolve the conflict to the City Council of republican capital.
in group D 13 governors, including 7 long-livers. Here Tajmuraz Mamsurov whom the eighth year (he supervises over the North Ossetia has already declared that Alexander Volkov (Udmurtiya), Ravil Geniatiulin (Transbaikalian edge), Nikolay Vinogradov (Vladimir region), Oleg Bogomolov (Kurgan region), Alexander Mihajlov (Kursk area), Oleg Betin (Tambov region) will not go for new term).
These old residents, according to Konstantin Kalacheva, that they never enjoyed wide popularity of the population unites. Thus to the vladimirskiy governor have impaired a little ratings in area conflicts with local " an United Russia " (as, however, and the party), in Transbaikalian edge which lives worse neighbours, and the Kurgan region the big inquiry about updating. And, for example, Nikita Belyh who too has appeared in group D, considers the expert, with the liberal views and predilection for the Internet " it has simply appeared not in that region ". Has impaired a little to it a situation and the recent international conflict. Kursk governor Alexander Mihajlov " breaks records on antiratings " and the Oryol governor Alexander Kozlovu is confronted with one of the most capable regional organisations of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, besides communists have in region of 12 % of municipal deputies of that it is quite enough for promotion of the real competitor the governor - to the variag.
however, in the report it is noticed that as it stands the law " long without scandals cannot exist ". The reason of it as Konstantin Kalachev has explained, becomes " postanovochnost " the first elections: the overestimated municipal filter will lead to promotion of technical candidates, numerous scandals, including on the Internet, around " become a consequence of that; ugly procedures " on petition, and governors will hold not an election, and referenda of trust to to themselves. All it, the expert, against protests of the parliamentary opposition marks, which non-admission to elections " in itself scandal " and growth of protest moods as a whole can strike on authority of the federal authority. In this case, mister Kalachev considers, the power should come back to the scheme 1990 - h when operating governors won often thanks to that contributed in promotion of a great number of candidates, urging voters to vote for " smaller harm ".
Political scientist Alexander Kynev also has declared " " that autumn elections become the extremely scandalous, and the offered scheme " it is very harmful from the point of view of political image of the power ". " I do not think that this scheme will live some years. To begin with they will be urged to lower filters in times, to 0,5 % " It has explained, without having excluded and indulgences for self-promoted workers who in the conditions of approaching crisis will be favourable the power. And an optimum variant the political scientist named cancellation of privileges on promotion of candidates for the parties presented in parliament, and transition to " classical " checks in simultaneously under signatures of voters and monetary pledge that in itself " will cut from participation in elections of frivolous candidates ".