Yesterday in It is new - Ogarevo has passed Economic Council at the president of the country. Still a week ago such body was not. Discussion of world crisis and feasible participation in it of Russia became the first subject. About what variants more often mutually exclusive, an exit from the yet not burst crisis the best scientists and practice of the country and why offered the president Economic Council, according to the special correspondent " " Andrey KOLESNIKOV, will not gather often, in its reporting from It is new - Ogarevo.
Councillors gathered in Is new - Ogarevo promptly as though understanding: today or never. Or crisis will be overcome, or will not begin at all.
here there were all ministers of the economic block of the government whom, it is necessary to tell, at session listened, instead of spoke (used rare possibility: Usually to the contrary), and also it is a lot of scientists - economists who could not be carried with hardness to supporters of an economic course of Vladimir Putin earlier.
so, with table edge, further all from the president, the supervisor of studies of the Higher school of economy Evgenie Yasin sat. When to it has approached to greet the head of the Savings Bank Herman Gref (with outflow of the person which you will not receive in any sun deck but only in one of preddefoltnyh the countries of Southern Europe), has risen not only Evgenie Yasin, but also, for example, elderly academician Revold Entov sitting near to it to whom it was gave so hard that it has reeled, and only mister Gref has had time to keep it from falling.
thus followed understand that such people as Revold Entov, learnt hardly probable not all ministers sitting at this table, to elements of an economic science. And judging by yesterday`s session, can teach still to much.
what for, there is a question, the Economic Council is necessary to the president? Many experts began to draw parallels about the presidential commission on TEKu which has already made a competition to the similar block in the government.
but members of advisory council to whom I talked before the session beginning, have appeared categorically do not agree with such version.
I have now risen in a hall on the second floor where there will be a session, one of participants, and #150 has told to me; also has been amazed: there as though the interuniversity commission on protection of dissertations has gathered! Such people! But same not experts, as owners of the oil companies in the commission on TEKu. Probably, the president and really wants to understand by means of all these people how to prepare for the second wave of crisis (for the sake of justice it is necessary to tell that among members of Economic Council is a lot of and experts, that is, for example, bankers. And. K ).
During the first wave and really all decisions were accepted basically at night in the White house, and people, which till now not all participants of the market know by sight (and a leah now these people each other well remember?) . Now Vladimir Putin, probably, has decided to replace strategy.
all of us, the president, and #150 has told; often we speak and about a disbalance in world economy, about bubbles... About that, about this, about the fifth, about the tenth... Anyway, risks more or are less clear both for world economy, and for ours. But when I speak " more or less " naturally, it would be desirable to know more precisely: more or less.
the Amateur approach to crisis liquidation as it was in 2008, does not suit, apparently, Vladimir Putin: now he has decided to resort to the help of transparent professionals on which will lay down if something happens not only weight of struggle against new crisis, but also responsibility for consequences of its liquidation.
the first the word was received by Oleg Vjugin, the chairman of board of directors of MDM - bank. It has in general depicted a situation in the world:
Problems which have generated world crisis, are not overcome till now... State debts of the developed countries grow... Management of these debts is not convincing...
thus it has made a reservation that if management of debts was convincing all would appear not so dramatically.
that is not so the debt, as management of it is terrible.
Against these thoughts one of Vladimir Putin`s favourite thoughts and #150 has grown dim; about a fantastic state debt, external and internal, the developed countries in comparison with indecently modest our state debt.
them, Oleg Vjugin, and #150 has continued; rescue while only measures of financial stimulation. And if such policy for a long time, consequences at the best a long poor development of these countries. And certainly, inflationary threat will constantly loom...
and it once again, without understanding, probably that knocks out its favourite trump from Vladimir Putin`s hands, has repeated:
the Size of a debt no means always is the big problem. When this debt well operate, the debt economy is capable to develop.
thus mister Vjugin has not told anything new when has underlined that for Russia the most sensitive place is the price for oil.
while financial stimulus for maintenance the status - kvo, and #150 are used; Oleg Vjugin, and #150 has declared; the price it will not be essential to change.
that is he wanted to tell, it is obvious that while experience of management by a state debt in the developed countries leaves much to be desired, Russia has nothing to worry.
present have cheered up. Here almost all understood implied senses: both teachers, and their pupils like Herman Gref and Arcady Dvorkovicha.
having cheered up, Oleg Vjugin has decided to call things by their proper names:
But if the USA and other countries learn to operate debts and rates of increase of their economy will increase... Too it is quite good: on oil there will be an additional demand!.
Oleg, and when, the president, and #150 has taken an interest; we can tell, what the situation in world economy develops how we would like?
From the answer of mister Vjugin followed that in this question everyone should trust in own sensations.
most likely, not for such answer Vladimir Putin collected the Economic Council. It would like clearness. And the group economist, the head of analytical department Deutsche Bank has decided to bring in Russia Yaroslav Lisovolik it:
EU goes in the area of integration into uniform body of bank supervision, it will facilitate reception of the direct financial help to banks (in 2009 prime minister Vladimir Putin became such uniform body in Russia. And. K ), and next month the situation will improve.
Evgenie Yasin, having come off any papers, has looked at the banker with undisguised interest.
moreover, Yaroslav Lisovolik, and #150 has continued; for EU possibility to leave crisis by stronger is saved! And what such an obvious sign of an overcoming the crisis, you asked?
yes, mister Putin has confirmed.
formation of the bank union! pleased with a relentlessness of the logic, Yaroslav Lisovolik has finished.
That is no injections from the European Central Bank will help? Vladimir Putin has asked again.
till now he some times in various audiences, including, for example, at a meeting with German chancellor Angela Merkel, repeated that careful injections from party ETSB precisely will not hurt.
the answer Russian - a German analyst was unambiguous: no!
So Vladimir Putin has lost one more favourite idea.
participants of meeting discussed the Chinese economy with interest: it very much disturbs them. On the one hand, grows, with another rates are slowed down, and on a broader scale, it appears, the Chinese system should be changed. The operating director and the group economist much spoke about it, in particular, " Three Dialogue " Evgenie Gavrilenkov.
In China, it has explained to the president, last years there was a reinvestment and underconsumption.
in some minutes it has returned to this subject and has declared that the share of the Chinese economy inevitably comes nearer to 50 % of the American.
but it does not concern a financial system! he has warned.
so I have not understood, Vladimir Putin, for the present, apparently, not regretted that has thought up for itself such advisory body, as Economic Council has asked again. On the one hand, underconsumption, and with another comes nearer to 50 %... What will be with economy of China?
Evgenie Gavrilenkov for an instant has reflected. But only for an instant:
the Economy of China will not be reduced, and will be braked.
it has not called an applause, but the incentive laughter in a hall has heard.
Alexander Dynkin, the director of Institute of world economy and the international relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, has predicted to the European economy the unstable period in three - four years.
it is interesting that all acting anyhow converged that such wave of crisis as in 2008 - the m, any more will not be.
However, Alexander Dynkin has preferred to make a reservation:
If, of course, act of terrorism in London during the Olympic Games does not happen... God forbid, certainly... And that will very strongly affect a situation.
here still will maleficiate.
Academician Dynkin has suggested not to play the hypocrite and lean in economic activities against raw materials: " the Same our real advantage! "
and it is pertinent, it has continued, to prepare the statement of the president... On the basis of given Rosfinmonitoringa which will carry out the analysis of agents of stock market about a conclusion of the finance abroad.
the hall has rustled. The members of the government sitting more close to the president, looked at it, expecting reaction.
to frighten, a leah that?! the president has asked again, and all with simplification have burst out laughing.
and that, effectual measures... Evgenie Yasin has murmured from the table edge.
and too we will not frighten? mister Putin has once again asked.
yes puganye already... Alexander Dynkin has waved away from the ridiculous assumption.
Well... the president has agreed. But you are assured?.
yes we, can, and we will do with them of nothing! has opened the plan mister Dynkin. simply such analysis we will spend...
and he was converted to experience of the Chinese National Republic, is far not unequivocal, in its opinion, but here mister Putin has interrupted him, having explained, as itself communicates with the Chinese colleagues much:
There even the first person leaves, gradually leaving power levers. In China there is no such difference between approaches, as, for example, between the former president of France and present... From China I do not expect negative influence on world, including on Russian, economy...
but has much more interested its thought that the first person should leave, gradually leaving power levers.
the Rector of the Russian academy of national economy and public service at the president of the Russian Federation Vladimir Mau has declared that if the CPSU existed, the conclusion would be drawn on the fourth crisis of capitalism.
occurs not only euro crisis, but also crisis of an anti-recessionary policy!. mister Mau has continued, and Evgenie Yasin had again an occasion to tear off a sight from papers on a table.
eventually all will be good! mister Mau under laughter of audience has oriented. the world economy will be extended by structural shifts in the American economy!
it there was a new version.
and on a broader scale - that is all crisis of the social state, Vladimir Mau has declared.
here to it followed to be especially careful. The idea of Russia as social state is especially expensive to Vladimir Putin. It is not necessary to take away from it almost the last.
Crisis, Vladimir Mau, and #150 meanwhile has carefree continued; especially strongly it will be developed there where the social state is more strongly developed. We, of course, do not speak about Norway.
it was not so clear, why we do not speak about Norway. It has appeared, we speak now about Southern Europe.
Vladimir Putin meanwhile got confused in versions and theories. It has tried to talk about pension system and has come out with the assumption that in Germany memory pension system sboit, but some participants of meeting have dissuaded him from it, and others, to the contrary, have supported.
Sergey Glazyev, the assistant to secretary general EvrAzEs, with such passion said that till now any economy from crisis was pulled out by its militarization that, apparently, he calls for it also the Russian economy.
and the head of the Savings Bank Herman Gref is assured that crisis it " man-made business " and " Result of bad monitoring of tectonic shifts in world economy ".
We never will return to that, he has declared, that the economy will be national.
but it means, as in world crisis nobody is guilty, someone has minded.
all are guilty! it summarised and has looked at Vladimir Putin.
that has nodded.
this advice will not gather often.