War will go on pipes
Parliament of Iran has supported the law on blockade of strait of Ormuz through which on the world market 40 % of all oil get. In the answer Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have already constructed pipes to swing oil bypassing passage. Now the region which is a planet petrol tank, is ready to the big war.
the head of committee of foreign policy of Iranian parliament Dzhavad Brown Kodosi sounded on July, 20th very convincingly: " If sanctions against Iran proceed, the ships of foes of our country supporting the sanctions, will not have the right to cross strait of Ormuz. Passage it is the world lock, and a key from it in hands of Iran. From the military point of view if we close the passage, any country in the world cannot open it again ". Kodosi has risen on a tribune medzhlisa to convince colleagues to vote for the bill offered it of blockade of strait of Ormuz. According to this document, the Iranian fleet should heat in passage any vessel belonging to one of the countries, supporting entered since July, 1st against Iran sanctions. By the evening for the law have voted 150 of 290 deputies, and the text has gone on the statement to the Iranian spiritual leader ajatolle Ali Hamenei.
Threat to close strait of Ormuz the most terrible means, to which Teheran resorts from the beginning of year to dissuade the West from acceptance all new packages of the Antiiranian sanctions. " if you ask me, from - for what I do not sleep at the nights, I to you will tell from - for strait of Ormuz " the commander of sea operations of the Navy of the USA admiral Dzhonatan Grinert when the Iranian officials have mentioned for the first time possibility of blockade of passage has dropped to journalists in January.
the reason of sleepless nights of an admiral is quite clear. The passage in width only 39 km, the separating Persian gulf from Indian ocean, is a unique artery on which oil from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (United Arab Emirates) is delivered to the world market. Every day through passage pass tankers, gruzhennye 17 million barrels of oil. If to add to them gazovozy which carry from Qatar szhizhennyj natural gas, daily through strait of Ormuz passes about 40 % of volume of world transportation of hydrocarbons. Value of passage for world economy is so great that the former US State Secretary Sajrus Vens named it " jaremnoj a vein of all West ".
In January when the vice-president of Iran Reza Rahimi has threatened for the first time with passage overlapping in case the West will enter sanctions for export of the Iranian oil, the American officials did not hide: any threat to navigation in strait of Ormuz will mean the war beginning. " We have accurately designated that the USA will not admit overlapping of strait of Ormuz. It is border which cannot be passed " has declared then the chief of the Pentagon Leon to Panetta. And the head of Incorporated committee of chiefs of staffs of the USA Martin Dempsi has told that Americans " will be ready to crush Iran if Iranians go on passage blocking ".
the law passed by the Iranian parliament yet does not mean that the ships of the Case of guards of Islamic revolution (KSIR) will heat really soon tankers. The vice-commander naval forces KSIR admiral Alireza Tansiri last week has declared that the fleet will not close passage until on it the Iranian tankers, that is until while from Islamic Republic though someone buys oil go. Nevertheless in region conflict threat in a gulf have conceived seriously. Also have started to prepare for war.
on July, 15th the minister of petroleum industry of the United Arab Emirates Mohammed al - Hamli was present at historical ceremony. Standing on a pier of port the Ale - Fudzhajra on the bank of Indian ocean, he observed loading of the first tanker from the United Arab Emirates with oil for Pakistan which has gone to detour of strait of Ormuz. " it is very important strategic project " spoke shining al - Hamli. Oil has been delivered To coast of ocean on the brand new pipeline in the extent of 370 km which has connected a deposit in Abu - dabi to port in gulf of Oman. To build this pipeline capacity of 1,5 million barrels a day (about 65 % of oil export of the United Arab Emirates) have begun still five years ago. From - for a difficult relief (the pipe is laid through wilderness and crosses mounts of Hadzhar) and high cost (all project has managed in $3,3 mlrd) it repeatedly froze. But since spring of this year of the United Arab Emirates have made decision accelerated tempo to complete a pipe.
Simultaneously in the Ale - Fudzhajre on other end of Arabian peninsula occurred to ceremony similar, but even more important event. To start the alternative pipe which is making a detour of strait of Ormuz, the main petrogetter in Persian gulf and #150 has solved also; Saudi Arabia. The pipe capacity to 2 million barrels a day (about 25 % of daily volume of export from kingdom), connecting the basic oil deposits in the east of the country with port Janbu - an ale - Bahra in Red sea one week ago has earned. To start a route in the extent of 1200 km, saudovtsy have converted an existing gas pipeline under oil transportation. " we want to be ready to everything, the Financial Times newspaper source in the Ministry of oil of Saudi Arabia has told. the pipeline gives us flexibility ".
put into operation Saudi and emiratskaja pipes increase capacity of the oil pipelines delivering oil from coast of Persian gulf bypassing strait of Ormuz almost twice to 6,5 million barrels. It about 40 % of those volumes which now carry by sea through passage. However reserve pipelines can be even more.
converted saudovtsami a gas pipeline only a part of the big pipeline system of kingdom under the name " the East - the West ". It have constructed in the beginning 1980 - h years from - for wars of Iraq and Iran in which course both parties heated another`s tankers in Persian gulf. The pipe started up one of these days in Janbu - an ale - Bahra initially was oil, but after has been as superfluous altered in the gas. It was not exposed to return alteration during operation " the Storm in wilderness " during war in Iraq, begun by George Bush - younger in 2003. And only now the Saudi royal family has considered a war cloud and overlappings of strait of Ormuz enough serious again to return to system use " the East - the West ".
Besides started now, in " the East - the West " one more pipe capacity of 3 million barrels of oil in day enters. It did not stop work last years: with its help the oil extracted in the east of the country is pumped over in Janbu - an ale - Bahru, loaded on tankers and through Suez canal is transported to Europe (through strait of Ormuz there is the Saudi oil intended for consumers in Asia and America). Also there is a pipeline capacity of 300 thousand barrels in knocks which is used for transportation szhizhennogo gas, but can be converted under oil.
at last, Saudi Arabia has two more spare pipelines. One of them a day too has been constructed by capacity of 1,65 million barrels in the beginning 1980 - h during time iraksko - the Iranian war. It goes from Iraq through kingdom territory all besides port Janbu - an ale - Bahra. Saddam Hussein to whom the route for transportation of oil bypassing Persian gulf was necessary financed building. Saudi Arabia supported in that conflict friendly sunnitsky Hussein`s waring against Shiit Iran the mode, but in 1990 after an attack to Kuwait has closed the pipeline. In June, 2001 Ayr - Rijad has nationalised it and has altered in a gas pipeline. In the beginning of this year the governmental experts of Iraq and Saudi Arabia even started to discuss possibility of restart of this route, but the decision is not accepted yet.
One more possibility for Saudi Arabia the so-called Transarabian oil pipeline capacity to 500 thousand barrels a day. It goes from the Saudi deposits at coast of Persian gulf to the Lebanese port Sidon. A pipe have started to build in 1947, and it has been started in 1950 - m. It was originally supposed that Haifa will be an ending point, but after state Israel education other decision was accepted. (However, after Six-day war of 1967 the pipeline site on Golan heights has all the same got under control of israelites.) Disputes between Saudi Arabia, Syria and Lebanon have led to that in 1976 the part of a pipe after Jordan has ceased to function. Till 1990 saudovtsy used it for oil deliveries to Jordan, but in 1990 have definitively closed from - that Amman has supported Bagdad during war in Persian gulf.
in June the Saudi oil state company Aramco declared that will carry out scale reconstruction of all pipeline system of the country. Apparently, expansion and restoration of the pipelines delivering oil on the world market bypassing strait of Ormuz one of problems of this program. If at all not the main.
put this month into operation pipelines bypassing strait of Ormuz say that the Saudi royal house and other oil monarchy of Persian gulf consider a war cloud and possible blockade of strait of Ormuz real much more real, than the last 20 years.
Start of new pipes for oil monarchy the insurance on a war case. But at the same time this in itself can approach the beginning of operations. After all as soon as alternative routes can fill to the world market at least 50 % of oil which it for a while will lose in case of passage overlapping, fear before uncontrollable growth of the oil prices from - for wars will decrease. Now this fear a primary factor forcing the USA from a threshold to sweep aside any offers of allies to begin war against Iran. And such offers sound even more often: once and for all " to solve the Iranian problem " Washington is called by all allies in region.
first of all it is Israel. Prime minister Binjamin Netanjahu extremely seriously concerns development of the Iranian nuclear program and convinces the fellow citizens and all allies that Teheran has approached extremely close to dangerous line after which from creation of its nuclear bomb will separate schitanye months. The main fears of israelites are connected with factory " Fordo " about which the world has learnt only in 2009 when the object which was under construction in a mode of privacy, was almost ready. The object is almost impregnable. The premise where centrifuges are established, represents the bunker cut down in a rock reliably covered in hundreds of metres of rocky breed. Though Iran has agreed to admit on factory of inspectors of IAEA, the West suspects that on this object Teheran can enrich uranium to the level exceeding 90 % it is a direct way to weapon creation (see " the Power " N25 from June, 25th).
Now Tel - Abib actively convinces Washington to put a pre-emptive strike on " Fordo " and to other objects of the Iranian nuclear program for ever to relieve itself of threat. In March during negotiations in Washington with Barack Obama who tried to bring to reason the Israeli prime minister, Binjamin Netanjahu declared: Israel would like to attack Iran together with the USA, but in default will perform operation independently. And to attack Islamic Republic Tel - Abib will notify Washington on the decision all for a pair of clocks before blow when to prevent israelites Americans cannot any more.
resoluteness of israelites shows also performance of Minister of Defence Ehuda of the Barrack last week before graduates of College of national security. " time for the whole world has come to show readiness for joint actions that quickly and unequivocally to put an end to the Iranian nuclear program. Israel soon should accept a difficult decision, concerning securities of the country, he has declared. I know about all complexities. But for me it is absolutely clear that if it happens (Iran will receive a nuclear bomb. " the power " ), will confront with this call much more difficult, more dangerously and more expensively in sense of human lives ". According to a Barrack, no negotiations like that last week the European diplomats in Istanbul conducted with Iranians, will help: Iran simply plays for time.
to Finish with Iran the USA call also oil monarchy of Persian gulf to what dispatches WikiLeaks bear. Shiit Iran always was for sunnitskih monarchy (especially for Saudi Arabia) the opponent number one, and after " the Arabian spring " when position of ruling houses became more vulnerable, many steels to be afraid it is even more Iran. So even they hardly begin to mind, if Israel strikes blow to their general enemy, and the USA will support them.
Barack Obama while doubts and in every possible way tries to dissuade israelites. The main reason November elections. In March the group of the economic experts advising the White house, has prepared a note about possible consequences of the military action of Israel against Iran. The main conclusion: operation can provoke " Oil shock " comparable with world crisis of the end 1970 - h that will lead to a rise in prices for gasoline in the USA and will drop ratings of the president before elections. The central argument of experts just danger of blockade of strait of Ormuz. And though military analysts notice that power of the American Fifth fleet on Bahrain will allow to clear quickly passage, even the fortnight termination of deliveries through passage will call a rise in prices which voters can to the president and not forgive.
but now, after start of alternative routes, this risk considerably decreases. And at Barack Obama appears much more arguments to support allies if they decide to strike blow to Iran to November elections. For example, in September when the USA have planned unprecedented on scale military doctrines around strait of Ormuz with participation of several avianosnyh groups.