World financial elite has hidden from tax departments at least $21 trln, it is told in the report of international research group The Tax Justice Network. Its experts believe that the fair taxation of the superrich could help and cope with present crisis, and solve weight of other problems. However, the sensation which has risen round research, will possibly, soon abate: the present Renaissance of left views is not so strong to provoke redistribution of such scales.
economic crises almost inevitably lead to strengthening of interest to left views. Opponents of capitalism over and over again, any more the first century, try to impose to a society of idea of redistribution, strengthening of state regulation, protectionism and etc. Present crisis not the exception, is surprising more likely, how much weak till now there was a left list in the politician and expert rhetoric.
last week there was an attempt it nevertheless to strengthen. In the British newspaper The Observer as an exclusive the basic results of two researches of international research group The Tax Justice Network (TJN) have been published. On hand " Money " there are both: " Inequality: You do not know the half of it " and " The Price of Offshore Revisited " (" the Inequality: you do not know even half " and " the Price of an offshore ") . Their authors assert that the reason of crisis among the other consists in growth of a social and economic inequality and stagnirujushchih middle class incomes in the USA and Europe. And also that the considerable part of the provided population leaves from the taxation by means of an offshore.
an inefficient inequality
the Argument of authors of researches in some questions seems enough convincing. Excessive growth of an inequality is inefficient for economy as a whole as it deforms normal dynamics of consumption. The factor of Dzhini, the indicator of that, are how much non-uniformly distributed population incomes, agree given Evrostata for 15 EU countries (without the East Europe beginners), has grown with 29 in 2000 to 30,5 in 2010 - the m. In Russia it fluctuates nearby 42.
In the article " the Inequality and crisis: coincidence or the reason? " the known American economist the Nobel winner Pol Krugman explains this interrelation. On the one hand, inequality growth calls the general underconsumption in economy from - that the share of consumption concerning incomes at rich social classes is less, than at middle class and poor at which all income goes on consumption. Thus, redistribution of incomes in favour of average and poor classes could create additional demand in economy and raise a consumption level.
on the other hand, the growing inequality calls average and poor classes local reconsumption concerning their low incomes. For preservation of a standard of living and partly for imitation of a standard of living more the well-to-do which style of life is imposed to mass-media, they are urged to consume, leaning not against the modest incomes, and on credits. Accessible and cheap credits became, on Krugmanu, the concrete mechanism of translation of growing stratification in a full-scale economic crisis.
Agrees with Krugmanom and the former group economist of IMF Raguram Radzhan noticing that fact that the western politicians wrongly concentrated on consumption level maintenance, instead of on population incomes. " the answer of politicians to a growing inequality irrespective of, a leah it has been carefully planned or grows out of following by the least resistance, there was an increase in crediting of families, especially families with low level of incomes, marks Raguram Radzhan. Advantages in the form of growing consumption and creation bolshego quantities of workplaces are instant while payment of debts can be postponed for the future. Whatever cynicism it seemed, credits were historically used as softening means by the governments which could not calm directly growing concern of middle class ".
In any sense cheap and accessible credits for families with low and middle tier of incomes created illusion of their well-being, illusion of improvement of a standard of living despite stagnirujushchy and even the decreasing income. And at the same time also reduced a positive role which the inequality plays to economy, " have shaded " stimulus to work and innovations. In Russia it already too is appreciable, though on - to the present while is not realised, it is probable still because that credits are much more expensive, than in the developed countries.
Labuan of assoiling
But why the inequality last years and even decades grows, instead of decreases? Researchers TJN consider that in many respects the reason in an offshore. By their calculations, from $21 trln to $32 trln means of rich men it is protected from the taxation in these silent financial harbours. The sum considerable enough if not to tell the huge. Especially if to consider that Credit Suisse Research Institute in the Global Wealth Report, 2011 estimates the general global mammon in $231 bln. Then that more than 10 % of global mammon leave from - under tax burden in the countries of the origin (and frequently it is rather poor or at all poor developing countries).
Even at the height of crisis, in 2009 - m, world leaders at summit G20 in London have remembered that it would be quite good to fill up the become scanty tax base with means from an offshore. But the world economy was quickly enough restored (as it has appeared, for a short while), and the idea has decayed.
we will remind, then the Organization of economic cooperation and development (OESR) has presented three lists of the countries and jurisdictions, having divided them on degree of observance of standards of cooperation in the field of the taxation. In the first, so-called black, the list only four jurisdictions and #150 have entered; Kosta - Rika, Philippines, Uruguay and Labuan (region of Malaysia with a special mode of the taxation). To them and only it OESR has threatened with sanctions. It then has puzzled many: they never were the main targets in struggle against an offshore, did not appear in the list " tax refuges " published OESR in 2000.
the majority of a real offshore have got to so-called grey sheet of jurisdictions, " taken up obligations on conformity of system of the taxation to the international standards, but insufficiently embodied these obligations ". Here both the Cayman islands, and the Bermudas, both Belize, and the Bahamas, both Gibraltar, and Liechtenstein, and Nauru. " grey " to list OESR with any sanctions does not threaten, so " laundries " easy continued and increased the activity. Well and the well-known isles of Man, Barbados, Jersey, favourite Russians Cyprus also have at all appeared in the white list of jurisdictions, " Taken up obligations on conformity of system of the taxation to the international standards ". The Chinese offshore Hong Kong and Macao has not got to any lists.
an offshore without borders
Experts TJN depart from purely geographical approach to an offshore and consider classical " treasure islands " only intermediate jurisdictions of offshore mammon. The real centres of the financial industry of leaving from taxes are less exotic these are the USA, Great Britain, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg and Germany. " Holland here it is formal not an offshore, Alexey Zubets, the head of the centre of strategic researches " argues; Rosgosstrakh ". But there the preferential taxation, head offices of some Russian companies there are located. What to consider and Holland now as an offshore? " yes, so, experts TJN believe.
in the developed countries the largest banks giving to the clients a full spectrum of financial services, including offshore concentrate. The majority of them well-known: UBS, Credit Suisse, Citigroup / SSB / Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America / Merrill Lynch, JPMorganChase, BNP Paribas, HSBC, Pictet and Cie, Goldman Sachs, ABN Amro, Barclays, Credit Agricole, Julius Baer, Societe General, Lombard Odier...
the Information noise lifted by reports TJN, possibly, will revive interest of public to well protected both from taxes, and from sights of strangers to mammon of the few. Especially considering a pitiable situation with the state finance and huge deficiencies of budgets in the developed countries. It is necessary where - that to search for money for zatykanija monstrous holes in balances.
So, the president of France Francois Olland`s socialist has not receded from the intention to tax rich fellow citizens in 75 % on incomes above ˆ1 million a year, than, by the way, and has called exod of millionaires on the same offshore coast. It would be logical to glance and there. As the estimation of offshore mammon from TJN appears considerably above other, earlier assumptions. So, OESR stated an estimation of $11 trln, IMF from $5 trln to $7 bln.
However, some experts are not inclined to trust TJN. So, Rustam Vahitov, the director of department of tax and financial consultation International Tax Associates, UFS Investment Group, doubts justice of estimation TJN: " It is the public organisation known for loud statements. Semipopulism, instead of the research centre. And how much the figure from their report corresponds to real volume of means in an offshore, without seeing a technique, it is impossible to tell. They basically are known for that occupy not simply left, but antiglobalistskie positions and try to prove that rich people employ advisers and leave from taxes. And poor are deprived such possibility ".
the Case in Russia
One more occasion not so to trust results TJN absurdity of their estimations, concerning Russia. Affirms that from our country it is deduced about $800 billion " Money " not so long ago scoffed at similar estimations (www. kommersant. ru / doc / 1853103) this figure approximately corresponds gross - to outflow of the private capital for all time of supervision. And in itself does not mean anything. After all behind these figures features of corporate governance, and protection of the property rights, and on a broader scale set of other processes and #150 are hidden also purchase by the Russian companies of factories in other countries, both; not only standard, but also absolutely normal for the modern globalized economy.
And as the statistics of foreign investments (schedules see), will ask a little - malski competent konspirolog. After all even according to Rosstata in lists of the largest addressees of investments from Russia offshore jurisdictions are in the lead. But it is not necessary to forget that they are also the largest investors to Russia. Partly it is the same " Russian " money, reinvestitsii. And partly the consequence of is simple that historically in these countries the exchequer centres of the majority of large international corporations and #150 are located; to blue white and before disgust of the legislative.
to take all and a leah to divide
However there is prospective money, let it even not overestimated $21 trln or even $32 trln, rescue for the world smoothly plunging into the next recession? Hardly. In itself this sum seems impressive, but only at first sight.
here simple calculation on a napkin. Let`s assume that $21 trln generate profit of 3 % a year. To present measures it is strongly overestimated estimation, after all, according to the same experts TJN, the offshore mammon basically is invested in conservative tools. Hiding money in an offshore rich men, as a rule, is exposed to a great risk at home, and in smooth waters the calmness and stability are necessary to them. Profitableness of reliable investments is now lowest: for example, such liquid and conservative tool of investments as ten years` state bonds of the USA, yields revenue at a rate of only 1,44 % annual.
further we will assume that these of 3 % are exposed to the taxation in house jurisdiction, say, under the rate of 30 %, $189 mlrd in a year (if for base to take $32 trln, the sum will increase almost on third) as a result turn out. This sum though is impressive, but nevertheless in eight times less than current deficiency of the state budget of the USA and in eight times below an estimation of possible losses of Germany from eurozone disintegration. So deducing from a shade of offshore mammons can be and correct step, but rescue for world economy from " treasure islands " it is not necessary to wait nevertheless.
" It is a policy, demagogy, propagation, Alexey Zubets considers. the governments show that they struggle, but it will rescue nobody. If not to take extreme cases, as Greece the prize for economy will be minimum. There is a political and social inquiry about justice: let the rich will pay for crisis. We saw some such actions. The brightest theft of databases in the Swiss banks. The sums there small, but as a horror story a powerful cudgel. Politicians realise inquiry about justice, and economy for three copecks ".
the Way to crisis overcoming lies through painfull disposal from too high debt burden, through necessary structural reforms, through increase of competitiveness of weak economy. Simple redistributive decisions, alas, does not exist. Bright levatskie slogans even if they are supported by figures amazing imagination and authority of the British scientists, are hardly capable to affect essentially politicians in the real world. At least, if crisis does not turn to chaos.