Rus News Journal

The forecast as global threat


Today the hottest news in the world — these are messages of credit rating agencies. Their forecasts in crisis it is similar to a sentence not only corporations, but also the whole countries. Last week quotations of the European stock exchanges &mdash, for example, have once again given; the negative forecast has been exposed Germany, to the Netherlands and Luxembourg. Impression such what exactly depends on rating reports well-being of world economy. A leah so it, understood " the Spark "

" At last - that in Europe there will be regulations of activity of rating agencies " already in the fourth time for last one and a half month the chairman of the European organisation of regulation of a securities market (ESMA) promises to the Financial Times newspaper Steven the Major

Statements surprise: after all credit rating agencies (KRA) are regulated in Europe since 2003. Thus them not thousand and not hundreds: All-European KRA all - that 14. National KRA are regulated and at all by the countries, besides weathers do not do. The world market is influenced, as it is known, by opinion no more than dozen agencies, from which only verdicts " the big three " Standard and Poor`s, Moody`s and Fitch have character of sentences not subject to the appeal. And so, accents in statements of the Major are gradually displaced: in last interview it especially rested on necessity of detailed inspection by the European regulators " the big three ". Then the European politicians weekly remind of the determination to plant on a short lead of these independent sentry dogs of a financial system?

decade " yellow cards "
on December, 1st, 2001 power giant Enron declared in Texas the bankruptcy. When, at last, on - to the present have dug its reporting, regular scale swindle has come to light. Special indignation (SEC) has called that all 4 days prior to bankruptcy at Enron there were decent ratings " the Commission on securities of the USA; the big three ". Have suspected arrangement, but have found out it a little in other place: it has appeared that auditor Enron Arthur Andersen, the company from " the big five " the best auditors of the world with faultless reputation together with the client it is a lot of years successively himichil with the reporting. Unprecedented scandal! Without having sustained judicial claims, Arthur Andersen has died together with Enron, and " the big three " KRA has got off only " a yellow card " that they have not got to the bottom of additions. Those in the answer have hastily fixed in work practice " a principle of the Chinese wall " between own analysis of the client and work of its auditor, but up to the end from suspicions in possible arrangements to clients and were not washed.

in the same 2001 - the m has burst and " a bubble " dot. com: Even in the spring of previous year all indicators have arrived on the capital of the whole sector the Internet - the companies and the venture firms investing in technological start - apy, amazed imagination, but hardly the market of virtual business it was sated, ratings of all securities which had though any relation to dot. com, fell down. Losses of the financial market share and pension funds, the insurance companies have made then about trillion dollars. Have burnt down savings on Patrick`s old age, my neighbour in Washington which has grieved at us on kitchen that chose where to be enclosed, only on two parametres both #150; to the income and a rating.

such happened and earlier: ratings grow during the growth periods when biznesy transform all credits into profitable actives, and fall at the first occurrences of signs of illness, smetaja both sick, and healthy. But scale and speed at first educations " a bubble " dot. com, and then its explosion have laid down new suspicion on " sentry dogs ": instead of a leah they trade insajdami, the helps, what securities to buy, and of what to get rid?

and here on September, 15th, 2008 has gone bankrupt Lehman Brothers. This bankruptcy has eclipsed also scandal with Enron and " a bubble " dot. com. It has become history as the boundary which has transformed a collapse of the mortgage market of the USA in a world economic crisis. In effect, American mortgage " a bubble " has burst in accuracy the same as and " a bubble " dot. com. Economic growth of the zero has generated unknown demand for real estate in huge America, its banks had not time to give out credits. The large quantity of the securities derivative of mortgage debts, rotated in the markets of all countries. KRA never appropriated it the higher ratings, fairly warning about risks, but their high profitableness tempted. When the market of real estate of States has overheated and the first non-payments on mortgage loans have gone, ratings of all securities derivative of the mortgage began to fall.

KRA regularly reduced ratings to all payroll companies which were engaged in gamble with them, was lost not only known Fannie Mae, but also it is a lot of others. It is a lot of " toxic " the poisoned mortgage papers, and also actions of the companies mortgage players held and Lehman Brothers. Since the summer 2008 - go KRA began to reduce ratings and to it, transforming its actives in " garbage pieces of paper ". But unlike other mortal Lehman was the fourth on size bank of the USA, system for all world bankovsko - a financial system. Rating falling, dump by the market of its actions strengthened a panic: anybody could not tell any more who can give money and to whom is not present, time itself Lehman Brothers is filled up on one side. Having come in the morning on September, 15th for work and having learnt that in 1:45 nights Lehman has submitted on bankruptcy, we only have sadly exchanged glances with colleagues: the world financial system plunges in whom, and the world in crisis.

this time KRA have accused that they contributed in falling Lehman. " KRA operate protsiklichno " have pronounced an analytics sentence. Unlike not proved suspicions in arrangements and trade insajdami it is plain truth. But a leah can be on - to other? Hardly. KRA never took obligations that the borrower or a security estimated by them as almost not having risks, that is AAA, those remains for ever. And especially never they urged neither to buy, nor to sell securities and actions according to their ratings. They stood and stand that credit risks during each given moment estimate, instead of foretell the future.

three coma years
" As it " do not foretell " When they simply impose us this future?! " here that the whole world revolts. The financial market it is blood and a world economy lymph. He gives the chance to all organism to live, and it carries on it toxins and an infection. In newly-baked market economies of countries of Eastern Europe system banks are " daughters " Paribas and Societe Generale, Unicredit, Raiffeisen Bank and Deutsche Bank. As soon as ratings of the given banks have decreased, macroeconomic indicators of these countries have worsened. Their own ratings have spread downwards, the credit and in crisis became less accessible and more expensive. Macroeconomic indicators in all Europe have worsened. Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, not to mention Greece, from - for rises in price of money have lost possibility to pay old debts at the expense of the new. There was a system debt crisis of the countries of an eurozone.

and what KRA? Their work To continue to inform the world the independent opinions. Only the lazy have not legal proceedings with them, do not accuse of damage drawing. In 2010 the Commission on securities of the USA has submitted on S &P to court on " to business Lehman Brothers ". It has brought S &P heavy losses, financial and reputatsionnye, its own quotations in the market have fallen.

the summer of 2011 in the congress of the USA linked republicans and democrats and two months could not solve, a leah allocates to Obama budgetary funds for service of the debt which has reached 14,3 trln of dollars and exceeded gross national product of the country. The country has appeared on the verge of a technical default. And here S &P has caused a stir: took and has lowered a rating to America with AAA to AA.

" rating Fall reflects our opinion that in just accepted by the congress and administration the plan of fiscal consolidation there is no that is required for stabilisation of intermediate term dynamics of a state debt " so the sentence has subtly been formulated. Its price It is more than 100 mlrd in a year of additional expenses on state debt service. " credit status of America became only one more victim of failure leadership of Obama in economy, has declared Mitt Romni, the present candidate of republicans for presidents. decrease in a rating it is the indicator of economic decline, the reviling and humiliation of all country ". Politicians of the USA have begun to yell that S &P is engaged in dirty manipulations. President Obama urged to sit down for a negotiating table with company management and personally, having shown all maps, to prove health of the finance of the nation. All has come to an end resignation of head S &P by the end of 2011, and agency have accused of the errors admitted at decrease of a rating of the USA. A leah defended S &P the right to independent opinion, a duty fairly to inform the market on credit risks or has decided to revenge the American authorities for Lehman hardly someone will dare to confirm categorically.

By the end 2011 - go in the market, except for IMF, the World bank, the European investment bank and the separate countries, like Germany and Japan, almost does not remain the countries, banks, financial tools with the higher ratings. The world survives in a coma.

and in January 2012 - go the new misfortune has happened: all " the big three " KRA has lowered sovereign ratings of Italy, Spain, Cyprus and Portugal, and unruly S &P from itself has personally lowered ratings also Austria, Malta, Slovakia, Slovenia and even France one of two columns of EU! As after that not to complain that KRA deprive of the future the whole nations if ratings of all banks in the Baltic States, because " have there and then decreased; daughters " the Austrian banks make skeleton of their bank systems?

When US authorities kicked S &P for Lehman Brothers when S &P has humiliated the people of America, Europe was silent, and here German members of parliament have declared that fall of ratings it " aim attack to Europe from the American rating agency " that they (that is States) " have declared to us currency war " both their purpose to destroy an eurozone. Since then Europe repeats that to a noncontrollable lawlessness " sentry dogs " it is necessary to put an end.

suspicions and recoveries of sight
S &P, Fitch and Moody`s huge corporations which more than 100 years raised the techniques and the reputations. Fitch about a staff - apartment in New York and London since 1913, Moody`s, settled down in Boston, with 1909 - go and Standard and Poor`s, residing on Uoll - strit, compete for clients with each other and other worthy agencies (as, for example, Rating agency of Japan or Chinese KRA " Dagong ") . To them the first persons of corporations and world banks go with explanations, them there are Ministers of Finance. Even Obama urged to go to S &P on prostration. In the world it is impossible to cancel laws of departmental interests, the intrigues, the latent arrangements and political exchanges. A leah participate in them KRA? Hardly it is necessary to think that they are more guiltless than the other. As to their mantra that there is nothing more expensively reputation, it is enough to remember demise Arthur Andersen, he after all too was proud of the reputation. A question what to do with these suspicions. It is possible to find an error at S &P and to send in resignation of its president, but it is not enough that from it will change.

correct to a principle " small steps to a right direction " the EuroParliament discusses steps reasonably useful, but absolutely scanty, concerning basically KRA " regional scale ". To watch the conflict of interests, without allowing KRA to appropriate ratings to clients, they own whose actions, and on the contrary. To demand disclosing of applied techniques and models, which and so not secret, a question in subtleties of their application: financial tools more and more become complicated, actives of the companies, banks and Central Banks represent their difficult mix. The error in the third figure after a comma in calculation attracts tiny distortion in an estimation of risk of one of tools, in a mix this error is multiplied. Europe intends and to approach other worthy agencies to group of elite, to expand a competition. A competition it is always good, the question, will be guided by whose ratings the market. At last, the EuroParliament commission on KRA was obliged to develop a scale of comparability of ratings of all agencies. Sounds, of course, seriously.

all it mikroprudentsialnyj supervision. The main sin KRA that they as it has already been told, protsiklichny by the nature, strengthening belief of the market that in the light future, in an inevitable apocalypse. But their estimations It not a weather forecast, and the thermometer, a thing basically not obligatory at treatment of illnesses. And precisely nobody forces doctors to make decisions depending on its indications.

not KRA are guilty that the congress of the USA of more month could not solve, a leah allocates money for service of a state debt or to declare a default. Not KRA force European stabfond to occupy more and more means to support the eurozone countries therefore also the rating most stabfonda, by the way, has decreased. That it is more important for politicians treatment of illnesses, search guilty or repairing of thermometers, a question leisure, after all and in Russia in the official circles discuss, a leah probably creation large and powerful " ours " the Russian credit agency not to be so dependent from KRA the West which, certainly, continually lower the most different Russian ratings not without secret intention. Really, to take and lower this summer ratings to Rosbank, " Deltakreditu " and more several only on the ground that they are included into group " Sosete Zheneral " and a rating " daughters " cannot be above a rating " mums ". A leah is a lawlessness?

* * *
it would Seem, crisis has passed all conceivable and inconceivable stages. At whom only did not point a finger in this time. Already grasped Uoll - strit, a year the USA and Japan judge under statements of bodies of supervision of England, 16 largest banks of the world, including Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, JPMorgan Chase, UBS. Them accuse that they manipulated rate LIBOR the basic rate of the interbank market, to embellish the balances, having shown on them of less expenses on attraction of means. Already broke hands financiers with despair that now and more to one thermometer both #150; LIBORu it is impossible to believe. So KRA Not unique whom accuse of all capital sins.

but crisis persistently does not want to recede, the raw prices creep downwards, there are forecasts " mortgaging crisis " that is depreciation of maintenance of credit portfolios of banks. Whom after KRA will start to accuse of complicity to crisis? Raw or stock exchanges? And can, the auditor companies? Do your rates, misters!