The defeated Keynes`s country
All governments now try to overcome consequences of the first wave of world financial crisis and to return to fast financial growth. An observer " the Authorities " Sergey Minaev pays attention that the western countries rely on the theory of economist John Keynes and at them it turns out nothing. And at Russia it has turned out.
in 1930 - e years the well-known British economist John Keynes (which, in particular, has thought up IMF) has put forward idea according to which in overcoming of recession and returning to fast economic growth the big role the state can play. Expansion of budgetary expenses means expansion of demand from the state, and in economy demand it is the major parametre. Growth of demand from the state and a scale expenditure of budget money conduct to growth of incomes of citizens and growth of private demand. Thanks to simultaneous growth of the state and private demand manufacture starts to grow quickly.
In kejnsianskoj theories the concept of the animator is key: both private demand, and manufacture grow in a greater degree, than the State expenditure. Besides, it is important to consider propensity of the population to savings: the it is less, the more consumer expenses and, hence, economic growth. Struggle against propensity of citizens to savings also is helped by inflation: the it above, the it is less favourable to save up and the more so favourably to consume. This theory has lost popularity still in 1970 - e years because in practice of has not justified. However now it have again started to use.
the professor of American Severo - the Western university Dzhonatan Parker describes history of how US president Barack Obama has decided to put into practice Keynes`s theory, so: " When Obama`s administration has begun the activity in January, 2009, the economy of the USA already more than a year was in a status of recession and real gross national product fell on 6 % in annual calculation. Interest rate FRS already was at the zero level, therefore the traditional monetary policy of stimulation of economy has settled the possibilities. Obama`s administration has decided to spend reduction of taxes and increase in the State expenditure, including the financial help to separate states to support cumulative demand, increasing gross national product and employment. The administration was converted to rather large academic economists behind the help in definition of the size and details of a package of budgetary stimulation of economy. How to instal a package? What taxes to reduce and what goods to buy during expansion of the State expenditure? For what term to save tax privileges and the expanded State expenditure? However the academic economists have arrived even worse than if they at all have not answered these questions: they have given mutually exclusive answers. The floor of Krugman has called administration for the maximum expansion of expenses, having specified that for each dollar spent for the state purchases, manufacture in the USA will grow on one and a half dollar. And Robert Barro has declared that it is not so necessary to expand the State expenditure, referring that in 1943 - 1944 defensive expenses grew in the USA on $540 mlrd in a year, and gross national product in total on $430 mlrd in a year. The animator of economic growth made 0,8. Disagreements among scientists have left politicians alone with the most complicated macroeconomic equations with many unknown persons ".
the Professor of Stanford University John Taylor has analysed results of application of packages of budgetary stimulation in the USA in 2001, 2008 and 2009. (In 2010 the American authorities had been accepted an additional package which operated in 2011.) As Taylor has noted, kejnsiansky the argument in favour of tax privileges and increase of grants consists that it increases real had incomes of the population and by that consumption hence, eventually conducts to gross national product growth. In all three packages of budgetary stimulation in 2000 - e years have been provided both privileges, and increase in grants. By Taylor`s calculations, packages 2008 and have really called 2009 sharp growth of real had incomes of the population in the second quarter 2008 and in the second quarter 2009 - go, however any growth of consumption was not observed. Packages 2001 and 2008 of increase in purchases for the state bill did not provide unlike a package of 2009 in which there were also direct purchases at the expense of the federal budget, and rendering of the financial help to separate states on purpose to stimulate them to increase in the expenses (in particular, on infrastructural projects).
the Size of federal purchases was not so considerable only 0,21 % of gross national product. But, it agree kejnsianskoj theories, the animator should enter business: even insignificant demand for the goods and services from the state should call splash in private demand. However in practice in 2009 - 2010 of it has not occurred. The federal help to separate states was very considerable, however any growth of expenses of the authorities of states on infrastructural projects was not observed: they simply accumulated money. As Taylor, " has concluded; empirical check of direct effect of three countercyclic packages in 2000 - e shows years that they have not rendered any positive influence neither on consumption of citizens and the enterprises, nor on the state purchases. And consequently these packages could not prevent decrease in investments during recession. Separate citizens and families basically accumulated the money received from payment of grants and granting of tax privileges. The authorities of states and municipalities used the federal help to reduce own loans, instead of to expansion of purchase of the goods and services. In general, experience 2000 - h has raised years considerable doubts that the countercyclic budgetary policy directed on overcoming of economic recession, on a broader scale is capable to work ".
All has come to an end that rates of increase of economy of the USA remained very low. In 2011 they have made only 1,7 %, in the first quarter of current year 2,1 %.
In Russia with budgetary expenses business now is as follows. In January - April of this year they have made 6478,6 mlrd rbl. (in January - April of last year 5153,7 mlrd rbl.). From them for national defence it is spent 763,7 mlrd rbl. (one year ago 436,2 mlrd rbl.) On national security both law-enforcement activity 483,9 mlrd rbl. (was 392 mlrd rbl.) . Expenses under article " national economy " the rbl., and article " have made now 698 mlrd rbl. against last year`s 565,1 mlrd; socially - cultural actions " has given 3804,2 mlrd rbl. against 301,9 mlrd rbl. year before.
Thus, with growth of the State expenditure and the state demand all with kejnsianskoj the points of view are perfectly in order. How affairs with growth of monetary incomes of the population are? In January - May, 2012 they have made 14 043,9 mlrd rbl., having shown growth in comparison with January - May, 2011 on 7 %.
In America growth of monetary incomes cannot turn to growth of a monetary outlay in any way, increasing a consumer demand and stimulating economic growth. And in Russia business are very much the other way. Expenses of the population on purchase of the goods and fee have reached $11 032,8 mlrd, and it on 11 % more than in January - May, 2011.
In America simple citizens cannot overcome propensity to savings in any way. And in Russia overcome, and most advantageously. In January - May of this year of savings have made 1175,7 mlrd rbl. on 4,7 % it is less, than year before.
As a result rates of economic growth in Russia it is considerable above the American. In the first quarter of this year they have made 4,9 % in annual calculation, and in May high rates were saved. The paradoxical image had turned out that the USA which authorities consulted to the most outstanding scientists shriving kejnsiansky the approach to the economic theory, have not succeeded in realisation of this approach, and the power of Russia, in which lexicon a word " the animator " is not key, just opposite.
Certainly, someone can tell that high rates the Russian gross national product in January - May of this year of dews because the world prices for oil on which the Russian economy depends first of all grew. And these prices are defined by world financial speculators, which not to difficult economic theories.
it is possible to notice also that Americans on a broader scale have got used to save money for rainy day. Therefore to large-scale purchases resort hardly probable time and again in a year when shops give grandiose discounts. And Russian have got used to spend money, believing that the rainy day comes constantly and it is better to be reserved by the goods. But, anyway, all elements kejnsianskih schemes now in Russia it is available their author could be happy.