Rus News Journal


Skirts become shorter than delayed action, the waitress — more beautifully, but instead of appointments in cafe all of you hang in social networks is more often? Probably, it not an old age, and a sign of approaching crisis.

economy a serious science. It is considered to be that practical. Tries to foretell the future of the world and the separate countries. The major tool of forecasts are the various indicators of economic activity flowing and advancing. Not all from them strictly scientific, is also the whole group of indicators - jokes. But it appears that it is equal that case when in a joke there is a joke share.

perhaps, the most known example an index bigmaka . As well as many other companies, McDonalds establishes the different prices in the different countries: above in rich, more low in the poor. From here a way of calculation of parity purchasing capacity of currencies: If in Tuzemii bigmak is three times cheaper, than in the USA, purchasing capacity of dollar there three times above. Near to truth though for serious mezhstranovyh researches nevertheless it is not necessary.

Once I have thought up (or have resurrected) one such indicator. On ekonomfake the Moscow State University it was necessary to check up on an example of agriculture of times of the New Economic Policy the Lenin thesis that from small-scale manufacture capitalism grows. After revolution the earth have divided approximately fifty-fifty, I have decided to consider, a leah grows concentration one grow poor and sell the plots another, there are in farm laborers, others, to the contrary, buy up and grow rich. In process it was found out: the quantity of poor, prosperous and rich peasants could be defined on such indicator, as presence of cockroaches and bugs in the house.

At poor was not crumbs, therefore were not found in their log huts even Prussians, prosperous presumed to eat nourishingly, and they had cockroaches, but in the house was that is called, seven on benches literally slept on benches, instead of on beds, bugs did not look on them. Rich got the present beds and down feather-beds expanse for the blood-sicking. It is surprising that such statistics on a broader scale gathered a legacy of competent statement has put at an imperial mode.

use of similar supervision for forecasting of stages of a business cycle, bubbles in the financial market or even marketing strategy of the concrete company is not so senseless. Discuss them very serious people can also. Alan Grinspen, former head FRS the USA, saw correlation of health of economy with an index of sales of man`s linen. Men when at them not all is safe, wear out linen to holes, and new to buy do not hurry.

however, not the smaller joker, than its Russian colleague Victor Gerashchenko, and underwear as the indicator, probably, has chosen Grinspen for a trick, after all dynamics of gross national product is a lot of with what korelliruet. But the general law such: in crisis sales of articles of prime necessity less fail, is stronger without what it is possible to manage.

from here such indicators, as sales of a tinned string bean: it is considered that in crisis save on meal and eat cheap canned food more. Or purely British an indicator of consumption of beer in bars: in crisis drink houses more. In crisis 2009 - m of sale of a string bean in Great Britain have grown on 23 %, and the personnel of bars has been reduced to 12 %.

Leonard Lauder, the chairman of board of directors of the company " Este Lauder " Has noticed that in uneasy 2001 lipstick sales have jumped up at once on 11 %, and has offered this indicator as the recession indicator. Ostensibly in crisis of the woman refuse to itself new bags and shoes, but buy more lipsticks as indemnification. This idea had supporters who have analysed statistics for many years and have found out that during Great depression of sale of lipstick have grown on the whole 25 %. However, if the trend also existed, since 2007 has turned over. Lipstick sales began to fall together with gross national product, and here nail polishes to grow. A new fashion? By the way, quite probably that idea of Laudera simply not trivial marketing course, a way to remind that lipstick an inexpensive way to satisfy thirst of shopping.

if women cease to buy to themselves new bags grows quantity of crocodiles on farms in Florida. There is no demand for a skin, there is no sense to kill crocodiles, they breed and breed.

during recession not only is more often use discount coupons , but also throw out on the market much more sites on a cemetery in advance prepared places near to the late spouse. On the obtained money it is possible to live any time, and a site it is exact not articles of prime necessity.

the similar indicator quantity of divorces . In crisis get divorced less, though, apparently, accruing difficulties can become the catalyst of disintegration of an astable family. But in the USA divorce of roads. Especially if in common acquired house costs less, than the mortgage loan rest: to divide the house, it will be necessary to pay off at first under the credit, that is dovnesti ready cash, and then it is necessary to pay initial payments for two new. People prefer to lead independent existence in the general house.

Among indicators there are also less material which are more difficult for feeling, statisticans are not present, only subjective sensations of the consumer. For example, average time of sale of second-hand cars during crisis times grows. And here time which is required to the plumber, to call back and appoint repair, speak, it is reduced.

Certainly, on recession time of sale not only cars, but also houses is extended. From here absolutely exotic an index of domination of mosquitoes: when the house is exposed on sale, owners from it have moved down, they cease to look after pool, that grows with ooze, and mosquitoes too start to breed and breed actively. This riddle, apparently, still waits for the meticulous researcher. Why not to lower pool, really empty pools with a green swill are worse? Or, can, matter is not in ooze, and what save on means from insects?

In States very much love such indicator as frequency and rigidity of the advertising, calling to register in marines. When full, it is necessary to invite works more actively. In recession more wishing to become the marine, accordingly, advertising is reduced, but rollers on TV become brutalnee to involve the most rigid and motivirovannyh.

Approximately the same logic at an index " hot " waitresses: in crisis of beautiful girls in cafe works more, they have no place to move. During time of economic boom the nice young maiden without problems will find to itself more interesting and it is better paid work.

one more type of communication between behaviour of the consumer both an economic situation through presence at it free time: it is increased by unemployment. Enthusiasts of a subject have noticed that a gain of a leading American portal of acquaintances www. match. com has reached peak in the very bottom crisis 2007 - 2009. A dating site it is rather budgetary way to find the partner together to spend time. As they say, both it is cheap, and it is angry.

in article in Wall Street Journal about hajkinge in Appalachian mountains, appeared in September, 2009, such statistics was resulted: in 2009 quantity wishing to pass up to the end the Appalachsky track in the extent of 2200 miles (!) Has increased from 1000 persons to 1400. Have there and then built an index and an explanation: a lot of jobless, suffering affliction souls, weariness from job searches. Going on a track up to the end, you or are restored after place loss, or plunge into depression more deeply. It is important that such walk nezatratna: cheap meal and a lodging for the night, podrabotka on local farms.

why not to measure communication of emotions and an economic situation not indirectly, through determination to leave in multimonthly pedestrian travel, and directly? Was not slow to appear Twitter - the indicator. In 2010 scientists have constructed a calmness index of University of Indiana and University of Manchester, leaning against frequency of the use in popular sotsseti six words: " quiet " " guarded " " assured " " vital " " kind " " happy ". The huge data file has been processed: 9,2 million messages from 2,7 million users during the period from March till December, 2008. It was found out that the calmness index on 87 % foretells dynamics of an index of Dow - Johns with a log from two about six days. The scientific community was sceptical about research: its authors could not offer a serious explanation to the found effect, except that, messages in Twitter cannot be divided on the countries, and comparison went with the American index. It is not necessary to forget and that such effects should be tested on longer interval: when the bear trend was established, the low index of calmness, most likely, conducts to falling of quotations, and what in lifting? To the contrary? Article, however, has published rather respected Journal of Computer Science. Jokes jokes, but, probably, the beginning is necessary to a new direction of researches.

one of the checked most up and that is important, advancing indicators of the termination of economic prosperity An index of skyscrapers (" Money " wrote about it one year ago, www. kommersant. ru / doc / 1651501). It has been thought up by the employee of the Hong Kong division of international investment bank Dresdner Kleinwort Benson Andrew Lawrence in 1999. Lawrence has paid attention that civil-engineering designs of the highest buildings are started during economic boom, and building frequently is necessary already on a recession phase. History with towers this which - that is more serious krokodilego than an index. Representatives of the Austrian economic school have noticed for a long time that during the periods of prosperity investors are too optimistical concerning the future, recurrence feet from here grow. And besides, the boom in the financial markets has a return influence on economy: it accelerates gross national product growth as it was during boom dotkomov, truth temporarily. And to fall then is more sick. It turns out that correlation of height of skyscrapers with a cycle of economic activity has scientific underlying reason.

the Strict explanation such indicators of peak of boom in stock market, as have also popularity of conversation on investment and a choice of actions among nonprofessionals. a Number of similar certificates concerns 1929. At once two known American investors in the memoirs have noticed that on peak of the market it started to give advice cleaners of boots, truth, by steadfast consideration it has appeared that it was a question of the same person practising nearby to a building of Nju - the Jorksky stock exchange on which known brokers and speculators dropped in. Peter Lynch, outstanding American operating the funds, working in 1970 - h the beginning 1990 - h, has noticed that papers are time for selling, if on a party the dentist approaches to it and starts conversation on actions, and does not ask advice, and gives it and to whom, Lynch! This effect is connected by that the market fastest grows and on it the bubble when on it there are many nonprofessionals is inflated. Such idle talks very good indicator of popularity of actions among the general public who does not have the direct relation to investment.

in the opposite direction this indicator does not operate. If conversations on stock market not in a fashion as now at us in Russia, it at all does not mean that time to buy, wherefore recession can long proceed and go deep.

Mark Faber, known operating actives and the theorist of cost investment, long time living and working in Asia, in the book about investments " Gold of tomorrow " also marks informal signs of boom a final stage povyshatelnogo a cycle which the collapse inevitably follows. On its supervision, in a city the second airport, on stopper roads, meanwhile analytical reports under actions all more thickly and more thickly is under construction, and financiers become selebriti their portraits decorate covers of glamour magazines.

Tolstoys analytical reports one of our kind with thick local newspapers in Florida in 1924 - 1925, in Florida boom of real estate. They puhli from announcements of real estate sale. In the middle of a XIX-th century in England there was a boom of the railway periodical press, and it is connected with a bubble in the market of railway actions in newspapers and magazines printed prospectuses of issues of new actions and advertised them.

conclusions are trivial. Than it is less in the common sense indicator, it is especially probable that it does not reveal any causally - investigatory communications, and grows out of a mere coincidence. Such indicators glitch sooner or later. In this connection the joke of times of Brezhnev in which basis the idea of the Lion of Gumilev that at Russia and #150 lies is remembered; a twelve years cycle. The joke sounds so: revolution of 1905, revolution 1917 - go, mass raskulachivanie and collectivisation (transition to the totalitarian state) 1929, the Great Patriotic War beginning in 1941 - m, Stalin`s death in the beginning 1953 - go, Khruschev`s displacement in the end of 1964 - go. Should follow 1977 - j Further, but the Soviet medicine has done the utmost, that it does not happen.

Perhaps, most known of not well-founded indicators similar in any way an index of length of skirts, offered in 1926 economist George Taylor. It has revealed dependence of length of skirts on economy health: more strong economy more shortly a skirt. Really, in 1929 - the m has happened crisis and skirts became longer, but further the effect is not traced. And by the way, whence to it to undertake? Not to the same degree the fashion depends on economy and if depends it is not clear, what effect outweighs: it is known that in Europe in war of the woman saved on a matter, but also fuel too in vain did not burn down, and long skirts are warmer. From this indicator, however, have shaken naphthalene in 2009 - m when have noticed that skirts something began to be extended suspiciously.

however, try to discuss this subject in social networks immediately there will be a weight of versions. Will hear, for example, about that the is worse economic expectations, the more shortly a skirt, ostensibly mercenary seductresses so entice rich admirers. Or to the contrary: mini from carelessness, demonstration of suntanned knees and harmonous anklebones a sign of confidence of tomorrow. However, long skirts too have arguments: the fashion ostensibly reflects a spirit in them on more serious relations with a smaller share of sexuality. And it, in turn, or means preparation for hard times, or, to the contrary, specifies in intention to take a maximum of advantage from future economic boom. In general, it is not necessary to count too strongly on that the average length of skirts in the street will prompt the most advantageous strategy in the share market.

as to recent ideas, all new indicators skorospelki, them tested on one episode last economic crisis. Many to trace in a retrospective show and at all it is impossible. Twitter, for example, during other crises did not exist. How much appointments in online will be at us during following crisis (by the way, the new linen can to be bought just)? How much the person will pass 2200 miles on the Appalachsky track? How much lipstick we will eat, being upset, what the crocodile bag is too expensive for us? And a leah there will be we, having supper at home, to choke with a can string bean and to wash down with its beer in aboutzhidanii a call from the plumber? Time will show.