Rus News Journal

Europe not petrol

the European debt crisis is supplemented and amplifies shock from record-breaking expensive oil. The main blow is necessary on motor-car manufacturers at whom sales already fall. In this situation they should give special attention to the Russian market. If, of course, crisis bypasses it.

all business in euro
the Eurozone has faced the record prices for oil at all in 2008 when quotations Brent have exceeded $140 for barrel, and in the spring 2011 - go (" the Arabian spring ") . The new peak has had for the spring summer of 2012, directly on a present heat of eurocrisis. Why so? All business in influence of debt crisis on stability of the European currency and in its appeal to world investors. Namely in an euro exchange rate to dollar. The peak of the oil prices has had on first half 2008 - go. Simultaneously with oil then the uniform European currency rose in price also, in the summer of 2008 its course reached to peak 1,6$ / .

the strong euro in 2008 has partially protected the European business and consumers from the negative effect of expensive oil endured by the American economy in first half 2008 - go. When oil has reached record $147 in July, 2008, the price in euro on this very short peak made less 90. Then, when oil has fallen off, the combination concerning strong euro and fairly fallen in price oil has given to the European economy the essential stimulus, valid all crisis 2009 - j when the mid-annual price of barrel made all 44 in comparison with $62 in America.

idyll has lasted not for long. Now, when the barrel of North Sea oil Brent bargains some months above $100, and the euro has seriously fallen from - for the European debt problems (to 1,21$ / in the middle of July 2012 - go), Europe faces strongly increased pressure of the oil prices. For Europe at the present fallen in price euro the prices for oil actually as are high, as well as at dollar peak in the summer 2008 - go: nearby 80 for barrel, and on much more long time piece. For example, in Paris automobile owners are urged to pay for gasoline litre unknown 1,6 both #150; and this price keeps during all first half of 2012. So high price for oil products in a combination to debt crisis aggravates and without that deep recession in an eurozone. At the same time, if euro falling proceeds, this effect can also to amplify.

power decline
Simultaneously Europe appears in much more difficult situation, than the same USA, concerning maintenance of own power independence. Within almost four epicritic years in the USA oil recovery rapid growth, in Europe and #150 is observed; habitual recession. According to Energy Information Administration (EIA), in EU oil recovery has fallen from 2,8 million barrels a day in pre-crisis 2007 - m to 2,2 million in 2011 - m whereas in the USA, to the contrary, there was a turn of a trend from 8,5 million barrels a day in 2007 - m to 10 million in 2011 - m.

the Same situation and with natural gas: in the USA it was possible to increase extraction with 870 mlrd cubic m in 2007 to 946 mlrd cubic m in 2010 - m, in EU extraction has fallen with 272 mlrd cubic The m in 2007 - m to 254 mlrd cubic m in 2010 - m. Explosive growth of extraction of slate gas in the USA last four years has already lowered the prices for it practically four times concerning pre-crisis levels of the beginning of 2008. In first half 2008 - go both American, and the European consumers paid for 1 thousand in cubic m of gas approximately $450. Now the price of natural gas has fallen to the USA below $100, and in Europe almost the same $400 - 450 (the prices nominated in euro, certainly, still above, than in 2008). Not subtly that many petrochemical enterprises at such huge disparitete costs on gas consider possibility of carrying over of the enterprises from Europe in the USA. It plays all it is not good for power-intensive branches of the European industry which lose in competitiveness of the USA.

in EU it is necessary to compensate Falling extraction of natural gas purchases abroad, first of all from Russia, thus the price of natural gas is adhered under the special formula to the price of oil and also nominated in US dollars.

the weakest European economy peripheral PIIGS simultaneously are also the most vulnerable to the high prices for hydrocarbons, after all the share of import of hydrocarbons in the general power consumption makes more than 60 % for Greece and Portugal, more than 70 % for Italy and Spain and more than 80 % for Ireland. High dependence of the same of Germany and France would be same also, high enough share of atomic engineering in a power balance of these countries however rescues.

gasoline now roads
As a matter of fact, growth of the prices nominated in euro on hydrocarbons for the European business became classical, under the textbook, external shock. First of all suffer affliction neftepererabotchiki and motor-car manufacturers. In January, 2012 one of the largest European oil refining conglomerates and #150 has gone bankrupt; the Swiss company Petroplus in this connection at once in the several European countries were closed belonging to it NPZ, having left without work of thousand people.

simultaneously sharp rise in prices for gasoline has called so sharp recession in the automobile market of Europe. Falling of sales, according to the European association of motor-car manufacturers, in the first half of the year 2012 - go in relation to corresponding period of last year has made rather impressive 6,8 %. Motor-car manufacturers are urged to reduce manufacture and to close the factories, dismissing thus thousand workers. It is clear: as - in any way in Europe de - fakto recession. However 6,8 % of falling it on the average, indicators of separate concerns strongly differ. For example, falling of sales of BMW has made 1 %, Volkswagen 1,5 %, and at Mercedes only 0,2 %. At much less competitive French and Italian companies falling of sales is much stronger: Peugeot - Citroen 13,9 %, Renault 17,1 %, Fiat the same of 17,1 %.

French and Italian car industries have appeared noncompetitive in the conditions of the European debt crisis and record-breaking high prices for gasoline. The labour expensive, credit resources is much more expensive, than at the German competitors, as a result to lower cost of cars and to make their more attractive to consumers which have strongly pressed down the expenses it is not possible. Devalvirovat currency France and Italy too for the clear reasons cannot.

in July Peugeot company - Citroen declared intention to close some the factories and to dismiss to 14 thousand workers. However this not palatable, but quite explainable decision (sharp falling of sales) has called indignation recently elected president of France of Francois Ollanda`s socialist. The defender of the labour French people already named these plans absolutely unacceptable, and has in exchange demanded to spend a company independent expert appraisal, to develop " the strategic plan " for the autoindustry, excluding, however, closing of any factories. Simultaneously he has urged Frenchmen to buy all French. It is characteristic that this slogan of times of Great depression in the majority of textbooks of economy is treated as the factor which supported and has strengthened the most well-known economic crisis in a world history. Good abstract sotsialistichesko - protectionist intentions of Ollanda can become road to a hell not only for France, but also for the company.

so, on news about resistance of the French authorities to plans on closing of superfluous factories cost CDS (from a default) on Peugeot promissory notes - Citroen would jump up the insurance to a historical maximum in 800. The item that corresponds 51 % of probability of a default of the company the next five years. Fears of creditors are clear: losses of the company of Peugeot - Citroen, according to Bloomberg, make already nearby 200 million a month, and an available cash, by estimations Kepler Capital Markets, to the second-large European motor-car manufacturer will suffice for year, a maximum on two. Exchange capitalisation of the company has fallen for a year to 77 %, and a credit rating of Peugeot - Citroen, according to Moody`s, has already fallen to garbage level of Va1 (the forecast on a rating too negative). If Olland also interferes henceforth with the company, opposing curtailments of production it is not excluded that the French motorcar giant giving work in 200 thousand of persons, as a result can is simple - naprosto to go bankrupt.

the little the situation and at other French autoconcern and #150 is better; Renault, but its affairs nevertheless call hardly more optimism thanks to traditional to wider commodity market, partnership with Japanese Nissan and a considerable share of the state in a share capital.

Problems with closing of factories arise not only at Frenchmen. American GM also has declared in June intention to close factory in Germany, however to carry out it it will be possible only in 2017: trade unions have blocked liquidation of the unprofitable enterprise before this term.

according to IHS Automotive, at motor-car manufacturers of EU it is a lot of superfluous capacities: more than 2 million cars a year in this situation the market the superfluous.

extinguish headlights!
all these power troubles, certainly, not unique problems of an eurozone, however any of them it can appear as a result of critical. Anyway, a current situation in car industry and petrochemistry convincingly prove that the cheap euro no means always positively influences eurozone economy. The cheap European currency, of course, helps exporters in foreign markets, however pressure of the raw prices nominated in dollars partly levels this positive effect.

If the present ultrahigh prices for gasoline in euro essentially will not decrease in the near future (for what or the dollar price of oil should fall, or sharply raise an euro exchange rate to dollar), we can to become soon witnesses of loud bankruptcies in automobile branch. Certainly, orientation to more and more economic cars, but in Europe, unlike the same USA, power efficiency of transport and so at very high level so the space for maneuver here is limited would be one of exits for manufacturers. Nevertheless it is necessary to be compressed. And it, moreover against recession, will be very painfull for the European economy: the car industry gives work almost 2,5 million persons, and taking into account accessory manufacturers 10 million Some of them will recruit ranks of the unemployed, which and so becomes more and more.

however, for citizens of our country the European fuel and energy crisis in short - and intermediate term prospect can have and some positive sides. The Russian car market is in Europe the second for the size after German, and is possible, the superfluous offer in EU will urge the European motor-car manufacturers to plum of surpluses for foreign markets, including on the Russian. In this case it is possible to expect discounts and reduction of prices. Sometimes happens better to sell the goods at a loss to itself, than to work on a warehouse.