The progress bubble
last years Russia applies for were one of the judgement centres " reforms " a world financial system. In the country which economic policy looks the sample of liberalism, Immanuil Vallerstajn and other gurus have become constant visitor, whose predictions for the capitalism end already have made progress some times not to come true. The press prints Noursultan Nazarbayev`s researches about new global currency system. Sergey Glazyev and its colleagues offer radical reforms of the world finance which desirability declares on G20 and Vladimir Putin. About the experts prophesying about crash of dollar and euro, bankruptcy of the USA and disintegration of the European union, I also do not speak. At the same time, if to face the truth, it is necessary to recognise that the wave of gamble on regulation of the global financial markets gradually goes on recession, and without having brought significant changes, short of those different reports " groups of wise men " Led by Joseph Stiglitsem and to it similar, still recently at the helm the global finance.
on - to mine, time has come to wonder frankly: in what the most widespread consist " claims " to a world financial system and a leah its critics can offer something the best? We will formulate them extremely short.
so: last years in stock markets and the derivative financial markets are inflated " bubbles " which, bursting, can catastrophically influence real sector; the economy of the developed countries lives on credit, and pays its developing world; an economic disbalance accrues, and consumption is warped aside " gold billion "; at last, some countries " operate " world economy, possessing possibility to emit the reserve currencies accepted in payments by all other world. All it is awful, many Russian economists speak to us. Really?
Yes, as of the end of 2011 cumulative capitalisation of global stock markets was estimated in 47 trln dollars, or 67 percent of a global national produce whereas in 1960 it made only 2,9 trln dollars, or 34 percent. Yes, during crises 2000 - 2002 and 2008 - 2009 this indicator only in the developed countries has fallen accordingly on 6,3 and 10,2 trln dollars that is a lot of. Also what? The economy has failed? No, it was not reduced in 2000 - 2002 (in the USA she has grown for 7 percent, in EU for 5,3 percent) also has fallen in the USA to 3,8 percent, and in EU for 3,7 percent in 2008 - 2009. Or hopes of financiers have failed, the wave of suicides has swept? It was not, I will notice, just from the beginning 1930 - h years. Therefore it is necessary to recognise: today razdutost financial sector this obvious blessing, instead of dangerous and incurable defect acts more likely as the guarantor neperegretosti real economy, and.
Yes, economy of the developed countries " lives on credit " but to whom from it is worse? The debt is the major tool of growth. With 1960 for 2010 total debts of the American households and corporations have grown (without the amendment on inflation) in 37,2 times, but and gross national product in nominal expression has increased in 28,3 times, and the economy has created 73,4 million workplaces. In EU the private sector debts in the current prices have grown for the same time of all in 22,1 times, but gross national product has raised in 16,7 times, and new workplaces has been created all 10,2 million As a result many corporate debts in the USA have been written off (more precisely, transformed into a public debt which then will be anyhow depreciated). Also it is a correct step as if as investors private corporations (quite often mistaken) acted not, and the state, efficiency of investments for certain would be smaller, and losses much more considerable.
Yes, the developed countries, and first of all the USA, in something win from a global disbalance. America makes less, than consumes. In 2011 she has sold the goods and services on 2,11 trln dollars, and has bought on 2,67 bln. But, in - the first, the difference has made only 558 mlrd, or 3,7 percent of gross national product, and, in - the second, stir such reconsumption to development of economy of the USA, stimulating growth in other countries. In 1997 - 1998 increase of the American import has supported the economy of Asia captured by crisis; later the American demand has caused lifting of China; and the high prices for oil are in many respects defined by that Americans set a trend of its impetuous consumption. Besides we will not forget that the USA could not consume more than make, if the same Chineses and Russian did not accumulate currency reserves, and spent them for purchase of the American or any else goods traded for dollars.
Yes, the USA and EU emit the currencies admitting all over the world. Yes, only for last 4 years FRS and ETSB have let out accordingly not less than 3,6 trln dollars and 1,5 trln euro of flat money. But this money rescues the Chinese communists and the Russian oligarchs not in a smaller measure, than the American banks and the European governments. Their issue supports demand for production of developing countries owing to what for 2001 - 2010 of EU and the USA grew rates in 2,7 times smaller, than other world. And ridiculously to hear, how them criticise for " impetuous issue " Russia and China which quite osoznanno do not do the currencies it is hard, preferring to profit from preservation the status - kvo.
Let well alone
I assert that a modern financial system the best from this that can be thought up today on a global scale. Visible acknowledgement of this fact is absence in modern economy something similar to crises 1907 - 1908, 1929 - 1932 and 1973 - 1974. The modern financial system allows to be created huge " to bubbles " from the fictitious actives which depreciation not ruiniruet economy simply because money which in this case are designated on an abacus, actually never and did not exist. This financial system allows in schitanye to create days from air trillions any monetary units which are capable to stop the most terrible economic recession and to prevent approach of new global depression. Creation of this flat money supports consumption and manufacture forces to develop, and arising international disproportions open new prospects before developing economy. Thus the countries Emitters of reserve currencies practically should execute the obligations, after all they guaranteed to investors to give through any time bolshee number of the same bank notes which they print. If investors want to exchange them for the actives located in these countries, the prices for them will go upwards, and balance will be restored. Behind a seeming disbalance amazingly balanced both steady financial system, and the crises similar happened in eurozone in practice disappears, are generated not by its internal contradictions, and indecision of Europeans in use of tools available at their order.
let`s look back back and we will remember absolutely recent past. In 1997 - 1998 of IMF has given out the greatest in the history credits to South Korea and Indonesia accordingly 57 and 40 mlrd dollars. In 2008 Americans have spent for rescue of one only insurance company AIG 182 mlrd dollars, and Europeans On rekapitalizatsiju one bank Dexia more than 55 mlrd euro. Also what, South Korea and Indonesia were ruined and have got to servitude how Vallerstajn and the company foretold 10 years ago? Today their currency reserves more than those years, in 36 times. Program TARP has cost much to tax bearers? Today the companies which have received the help have paid more than 85 percent allocated with it in 2008 - 2009 of means. And if and then, and today the similar help has not been rendered? The world for certain would be rejected at least on 10 - 15 years ago. Or to take boom in sphere of the hi-tech companies in 1999 - 2000: it has come to the end with the crash which has destroyed only in the USA more 4 trln of dollars " joint-stock cost ". However bolshej its parts did not exist anywhere, except as in accounting reports, and the investments really made those years from means of trusting investors, have provided soar and prosperity of the given sector how will not provide its any Skolkovo, how much the Russian budgets in them has been buried.
the market economy cannot develop differently as through recessions and liftings. The modern financial system at first sight as much as possible increases amplitude of this wavy dynamics, but actually, generating on a storm surface, saves in a relative integrity real sector, allowing it is forward to develop.
however especially clever dreamers consider that have at the order more refined schemes, rather than what have naturally developed for decades of difficult historical evolution. That do they want and what offer? Begin usually with the requirement of reduction of bonuses to heads of financial corporations, control over business of investment banks, restrictions of capitalisation of the largest companies, regulations of activity of rating agencies. Further it is told about the tax to financial transaction, about restrictions on the financial help and the size of budgetary deficiencies, about special norms of reservation under speculative operations and the minimum terms derzhanija actions before their following sale. At last, crowns this list of measures idea of promotion of requirements to emitters of reserve currencies who should - de to co-ordinate volumes of issue with other world and to guarantee rigid exchange rates, and also absence of protectionism in the economic policy. Business sometimes reaches gamble concerning creation of uniform global currency which can put an end " orgies " FRS and ETSB.
Some of these ideas are reasonable, and they are already used or will be soon used in practice. Was valid, silly to cancel in 1999 division of banks on retail and investment; unscrupulous was and there is a principle of financing of rating agencies at the expense of the companies by which ratings are appropriated. But all is particulars which are easy for correcting. On the basic moments to go on changes it is impossible.
do not awake the Modern financial system is dashing
has developed after 1971 when the gold standard has been excellent. All subsequent events provided an accruing freedom of action of the central banks of those countries which currencies admitted other participants of global economy reliable. It allowed the developed countries at times is artificial to support consumption standards, at times to involve means of other world for the decision of the problems. Probably, it and is not too fair, but to accept such system other world forced nobody. Currencies of the USA, Japan and the European countries were attractive to investments and consequently were in demand. A disbalance also was not especially considerable to second half 1990 - h years when after crisis 1997 - 1998 developing countries have started to increase sharply reserves, reducing potential consumption. With 1996 for 2011 cumulative currency reserves of the central banks of Japan and 9 large developing economy in Eurasia and Latin America have grown in 9,1 times, on 6,7 trln dollars. It actually means that for the corresponding sum the goods to the USA and Europe have been put, but is not got production of these countries. Moreover, the saved up dollars should be placed with the maximum reliability and consequently them have given on credit to emitters. So there was also a negative trading balance, and an accruing debt of the developed countries. Therefore a way of overcoming of a disbalance one the accelerated expenditure of currency reserves for purchase of the goods and actives in the countries emitters of reserve currencies. But developing countries want to live on another`s demand, instead of to stimulate it in other economy. So before to accuse the USA and Europe of escalating of a disbalance, Russia, China and Saudi Arabia should look at itself and an own role in this process.
if attempt of regulation of issue will be on a global scale undertaken, the global economy will return to life " on means ". Consumption in the USA and the countries of Europe will be reduced at least to size of their commodity deficiencies, that is on 1 trln dollars a year. The economy will be reduced on 4 - 5 percent annually within several years on end. Stock markets will lose more than half of the cost as the organisations of financial sector begin to reduce mutual debts and to sell risky actives. The prices for raw materials will decrease in 2 - 4 times taking into account their speculative component. The states cannot support the companies with that ease from what they now do it. Restrictions of exchange gamble will in addition reduce appeal of stock market; share prices worldwide will decrease; the largest banks will start to close the demand lines of credit earlier opened on security by actions of the companies. Scale redistribution of the property will begin; the shares, taken over banks, begin to be on sale with the big discounts. As consequence, the scale spiral of depreciation of the actives, similar to those will be started that took place in 1929 - 1932. Thus it is still not clear, who will incur heavy losses the developed countries or the developing world and suppliers of raw materials. It is enough to remember a situation of the middle 1980 - h when after boom of the raw prices there has come catastrophic crisis for the peripheral states, called by delay of economy of the USA and Europe.
I do not try to prove in detail in this short article optimum character of a modern financial system, but I urge its critics to pay attention to a number of circumstances.
throughout 2000 - h years which were the period of the greatest disbalance and financial shocks, developing countries grew on the average for 6,2 percent a year against 2,1 at the developed. For this period cumulative cost annually bought " the first " the world at resursodobyvajushchih the raw materials countries has grown with 0,4 to 2,1 trln dollars. In the developed countries it has been created less than 10 million workplaces, whereas in developing more than 230 million Thus no financial shocks have called in the developed countries of losses investors of banks, unlike that occurred in the beginning 1930 - h years; volumes of their gross national product and a consumption level of their citizens were not reduced. Developed after 1971 " unfair " and " uncontrollable " The financial system has in practice given the chance to developing countries to rise industrially, and developed not to reduce rate of development and to become the centre of technological innovations. The USA and Europe have acted in 1990 - e and 2000 - e years " the tractor " for economy of other countries, and it it is not necessary to forget. We will add: failures and problems comprehended first of all those countries which tried to make the currencies quasiconverted and to adhere them to dollar, it have tested on itself and the Asian countries in 1997 - m, and Russia in 1998 - m, and Argentina in 2001. Maneuver freedom in the modern world costs more expensively, than any advantages " stability ".
Moreover, problems of the countries of the European union, shown last years, became additional acknowledgement of danger of excessive regulation. Some EU countries have lost possibility of free issue while the European central bank and directing bodies of the European union have appeared are connected by weight of bureaucratic restrictions. Actually, today a zone of euro it is an ideal prototype " adjusted " under recipes alterglobalistov a world financial system. As it works, now sees everyone. But in Europe at least is nadnatsionalnye bodies The authorities which on a global scale are not present and it is not expected.
summing up, I want to tell: whatever unfair the present global financial system, any alternative to it seemed will be less effective. Economy, whatever one may do, it is the system based on efficiency, instead of on justice. And if someone intends, proceeding from speculative ideas, to destroy it efficiency is usually lost, and justice does not arise. Therefore, on my deep belief, " at all mammon of a choice " in the field of financial regulation of alternative to the developed system today does not exist.