Falling of the oil prices, devaluation of rouble and a collapse in stock markets — all habitual components of crisis on - russki already available. It is necessary to add external shock and awkward actions of the authorities definitively to give stock market on worry " to bears ".
the Second quarter for world stock markets has passed General outflow under the badge of decrease in indexes. Correction, however, was inevitable: indexes too roughly grew in the first quarter, investors inevitably should start to fix profit. Correction has begun with the technical point of view in the end of the first quarter, and analysts dispersed only in an estimation of its depth and duration.
in the second quarter American DOW Jones has decreased on 2,5 %, British FTSE - 100 on 3,4 %. More considerably loss of indexes of other developed economy: French CAC - 40 has fallen to 6,6 %, German DAX on 7,6 %, Japanese Nikkei On 10,7 %. Share indexes of developing countries have suffered more strongly. Russian RTS has fallen to 17,5 % (schedule 1 see). For comparison: Brazilian Bovespa has decreased on comparable 15,7 %.
Sharp falling of the oil prices and euro easing to dollar have worked on investors unequivocally. Against decrease in ratings of the European banks, expected bankruptcy of Greece, threat of crash of an eurozone investors began to deduce means from emerging markets, and the European banks and the companies to consolidate means in the parent companies.
" investors deduced means from brave actives, the conclusion practically did not stop during second half of quarter " the chief of department of personal broker service of a DB " tells; Opening " Boris Blohin. However, according to EPFR, in the second quarter inflow of means to the private funds focused to Russia was observed. It has made $673 million
But, in - the first, it is twice less, than in the first quarter when inflow of means has made $1,235 billion In - the second, inflow to the second quarter was observed in April - May, and in June outflow of means from the funds focused to Russia has begun. For a month it has made almost $200 million In - the third, data EPFR does not consider all means in the market. " if to analyze statistics on Russian stranovym to funds the weekly data speaks about a conclusion of means throughout 10 weeks on end from the last 12, Boris Blohin marks. However now outflow was slowed down for two reasons: pereprodannost stock market and stabilisation of quotations of oil futures at new price level ".
Falling of the prices for oil and for the second quarter barrel Brent has fallen in price on 20 % has struck across Russia from different directions. Directly: decrease in an export gain and partial devaluation of rouble. For a quarter the rouble has fainted to bivaljutnoj to a basket on 8,2 %, and its cost has raised about 33,86 rbl. to 36,65 rbl. On a tangent has touched also the basic Russian share index. On a platform of RTS of the action are quoted in dollars, and change of rates of exchange has aggravated falling of this index. On a trading platform of the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange of a paper are quoted in roubles so falling was less considerable. The Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index has decreased twice less index of RTS: in total on 8,6 %.
Branch indexes on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange also showed negative dynamics, but different depth (schedule 2 see). The index of oil and gas sector has fallen to 9,6 %. " Gazprom " has lost for a quarter of 15,2 % of the cost. Pressure upon papers of a gas monopolist was rendered by conflicts to an Ukrainian " Naftogazom " and German E. ON concerning updating of the prices and volumes of deliveries of blue fuel.
the Negative role the tightening with acceptance of investment decisions on the Shtokmanovsky deposit, too long choice of foreign partners and necessity of the conclusion of the new joint-stock agreement has played also. The decision on payment of record dividends for 2011 became the additional factor which has frightened off short-term investors. They are increased in 2,3 times in comparison with 2010. On these purposes " Gazprom " plans to direct more than 212 mlrd rbl.
But the leader of falling in oil and gas sector became the multinational corporation - VR: its actions in the second quarter have decreased on 20,7 %. It is connected with an aggravation of the long-term conflict between the Russian and British shareholders. Michael Friedman has in a pointed manner left fasts of the chairman of the board and the general manager of the director of the company, having ascertained impossibility of the further partnership with VR. The consortium of the Russian shareholders has declared also readiness to redeem package VR in the multinational corporation - VR or to exchange the package for actions VR. However many this divorce case, obviously lasted still, it will cost to minority shareholders many money.
better the market behaved " Rosneft " and " Gazpromneft " 2,8 % which have lost accordingly and 5,2 %. And LUKOIL even managed to add hardly more than 1 %. Support to actions was rendered by statements of the company for readiness to leave by 2014 on annual level of extraction in 100 million tons of oil. With Italian Enel about cooperation arrangements of LUKOIL have helped with sphere of investigation, extraction and gas transportation in Europe and the North Africa also, and company plans in July to sign the contract on geological prospecting of a part of the Iraq deposits.
the metallurgical sector has more seriously fallen: its index on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange following the results of the second quarter has decreased on 13,6 %. Depozitarnye receipts " Rusala " have lost 12,7 %, actions NLMK almost 15 %.
" Falling in metallurgical sector is connected with a branch status, decrease in profitability of business and the weak reporting of the companies for the first quarter, the director of analytical department IK " explains; Veles the Capital " Ivan Manaenko. Weak indicators of branch speak reduction in demand from China and pessimistic forecasts of rates of increase of global economy ".
Leaders of decrease in sector of a steel of a paper " a Mechel " and " Raspadsky " which have fallen to 23,7 % and 21,3 % accordingly. " " Raspadsky " and " a Mechel " on a broader scale coal miners: decrease in consumption of coal in Australia became the additional factor. At " a Mechel " besides debt problems which have served its purpose " Ivan Manaenko explains. A cumulative debt " a Mechel " makes almost $10 mlrd at a gain of $12,5 mlrd in 2011. And problems at the company do not dare since Vladimir Putin has promised to send the doctor to its owner Igor Zyuzin.
the power became the Main sector of falling in the second quarter: its index on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange has lost for a quarter of 26,6 %. " Such falling is connected first of all with revision of rules on privatisation in an electropower complex, the senior analyst IFK " speaks; Metropol " Konstantin Rejli. " RusGidro " FSK and " Holding MRSK " have been included in the list of the strategic enterprises with an actual interdiction for privatisation ". It has managed " RusGidro " in 27,4 % of capitalisation, FSK in 37,5 %. And Open Company papers " Holding MRSK " also have at all depreciated almost twice, having lost 46,8 % of the cost.
" on decrease in actions " RusGidro " Also plans on assumed dokapitalizatsii the companies through occurrence in its capital " have affected; Rosneftegaza " Konstantin Rejli marks. And falling below the market of papers FSK and " Holding MRSK " speaks plans on association of two companies ". Really, association of the federal company operating the main electric systems, with holding of the multi-region distributive network companies against an interdiction for the further privatisation of the key companies of branch cannot be conceived by investors differently, as turning of reform of electric power industry and returning to monopolisation in the market with a leading position of state companies.
acknowledgement has come already on July, 3rd: Andrey Murov, the son of head FSO of Evgenie Murova, is appointed fulfilling duties of the general director " Holding MRSK ". The way of Murova - younger to electric power industry tops was short, but prompt. In February of this year it became the vice-president in " Holding MRSK " in June has passed to similar fast in FSK. And here returning with increase. Possibly, in these throwings the observer should find out strategy of development of the Russian power.
the financial sector has fallen hardly more strongly the market: its index on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange has decreased on 10 %. Actions of the Savings Bank of Russia have lost almost 9 %. Worse the market papers VTB felt, having fallen in price on 14,7 % and having returned to level of 2009.
the consumer sector index on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange also has lost 9,7 % comparable to the market. Actions " proteka " have fallen in price on 8,3 %, " M.Video " on 11 %. The sector overheat in the first quarter became one of the correction reasons in the consumer sector which actions are traditionally conceived as a protective active: then its index has grown on 25,13 %. Now natural correction.
the leader of falling of a steel of a drugstore " 36,6 " a minus of 23,2 %. The reason In the weak reporting of the company for 2011: despite 6 - percentage increase in sales to 21,6 mlrd the rbl., a network on - former remains unprofitable, and the cumulative debt has grown to 9,5 mlrd rbl. Against the general movement papers " have acted; the Magnet " which have added for a quarter of 6,8 %. The reason also in the reporting: the network has shown in May acceleration of growth of a gain first of all at the expense of its growth in shops of step-by-step availability.
the first trading sessions of the third quarter have allowed world stock markets and the Russian platforms to be fixed on positive dynamics. " now we observe movement upwards within the limits of the general falling trend. Movement occurs on sensation that the European countries gradually come to arrangements. But fundamental problems anywhere do not send away, the chief of analytical management of MDM - bank Michael Zak reminds. therefore present growth hardly will be long-term. In July the market will remain at the best at current levels ".
Similar fears are divided also by other analysts. " the effect from current measures is limited enough: to the beginning of August the small potential of lifting can already be settled, and in August we can see correction of current growth, Ivan Manaenko considers. the Following lifting can wait for us more close to elections in the USA, by November ".