Rus News Journal

Dreams are washed off

$50 for barrel? It is quite possible, many authoritative economists consider. The cycle has made the business: in world oil extracting there is a quiet revolution, the problem of deficiency of oil is almost solved. Vladimir Putin yet in a course.

the concept of peak of oil recovery popular in last years Peak Oil it is known now almost for all. Idea if simply, it is that: hydrocarbonic resources konechny, hence, it will be extracted oil ever less, and demand and, hence, the prices for it will grow only.

however all not so is pessimistic (or it is optimistical from the point of view of the countries manufacturers of oil). Last months even more often there are researches according to which the world waits not deficiency, and abundance of oil. So, for example, in June report detailed enough and sated with technical calculations " Oil: The Next Revolution " Prepared Harvard ` s Kennedy School of Government under the direction of enough known in branch eks - heads of Italian oil giant Eni Leonardo Maudzheri, affirms that by 2020 oil world production can grow already on 20 % from current level (from 93 million to 110 million barrels a day), and four countries and #150 become the basic drivers of growth of extraction; the USA, Canada, Iraq and Brazil. Reduction is expected in Iran, Mexico, Great Britain and Norway. In Russia extraction if will grow, is insignificant.

in 1990 - e years at cheap oil the branch, according to Maudzheri, suffered affliction from chronic underfinancing: nobody wanted to be engaged in geological prospecting, to develop new deposits and to perfect technologies of extraction. All it has led to gradual deficiency of oil and a rise in prices in " roaring 2000 - e ". Demand was there and then added also from emerging markets, first of all China. All participants of the market have believed that expensive oil it for a long time, investments into branch again became attractive, and behind them there were also new technologies of extraction.

Analiz Maudzheri, by the way, practically word for word coincides that Egor Gaydar has told once: " the cleverest that I heard about the prices for oil... Until then while the majority of participants of the oil market believe that the high prices for oil for short time, they remain high. When the overwhelming majority of participants of the oil market will believe that the high prices for oil for a long time, they will fail ". It is recurrence: cheap oil means nedoinvestitsii and the rise in prices, expensive oil urges on investments into manufacture and technologies, as a result of the price fall off.

Black revolution
If expected growth of manufacture in Iraq is connected first of all with intensive development of the infrastructure which was earlier in a deplorable state, jump in forecasts on the countries of a New World with new technologies, with extraction of so-called not conventional oil. That occurs in the North America is very indicative. Till 2008 in the USA appreciable decrease in oil recovery (though in Canada there was a growth) was marked. But within almost four years rapid growth of extraction not only in Canada, but also in the USA and #150 is swept up; practically boom. Analysts of American power consulting company Bentek Energy even are more optimistical, than moderate Maudzheri: they predict excess of peak of extraction of North American oil of the beginning 1970 - h years of all in four years to 2016 - mu.

the Reason of growth new technologies of extraction. In Albert`s Canadian province (tar sands, oil sand) and its transformations methods of extraction of heavy oil successfully develop in a synthetic oil mix syncrude. In the USA the success is connected with application of technologies of extraction of slate gas to oil recovery. Explosive growth of extraction of slate gas in the USA last four years has already lowered the prices for it almost three times concerning pre-crisis levels of the beginning 2008 - go (the price for oil then kept above $100 for barrel WTI).

And it only the beginning. For example, as specifies Maudzheri, the slate deposit of Bakken has passed a way in Northern Dakota from several barrels a day in 2006 - m to 530 thousand barrels a day by December 2011 - go. Thus such comparable on stocks of slate deposits, as Bakken, in the USA still a minimum 20. Maudzheri asserts that the world oil industry is on the threshold of revolution that dekonventsionalizatsija oil stocks and extraction It not an episode, and the most important event for some decades. Maudzheri considers that the USA quite on forces to become the manufacturer of oil second after Saudi Arabia by 2020. Analysts Goldman Sachs divide optimism of the colleagues and consider that the USA can become the first-ever manufacturer of oil by 2017 (now the USA the third after Saudi Arabia and Russia).

That can prevent these plans? In Iraq possible political instability. In a New World a long collapse of the oil prices essentially below $50 for barrel till 2015. As extraction of the majority of not conventional stocks in the USA, Canada and Brazil is profitable at the price of $50 - 65 for barrel, long-term reduction of prices below $50 can suspend process of working out of new deposits.

however, development of technologies, change of an economic conjuncture can lead to the further decrease in costs. However, as marks Maudzheri, the collapse till 2015 and #150 is critical; after already will be late. By this time all investments will be carried out also branch will face structural overproduction. It occurs now in the USA to extraction of slate gas: manufacturers should continue extraction, despite the low prices as initial investments are already made and to turn off extraction is even more unprofitable, than to continue it. It is necessary to be content minimum marzhej.

Burden white
However, having considered one party of a question extraction, would be correct to pay attention and to its reflexion demand for oil. Perhaps, predicted growth of extraction will coincide or even will lag behind prospective growth of demand? Hardly. So, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA), in three of four largest economy of the world the USA, EU and Japan demand for oil last years is steadily reduced. So, in the USA, according to EIA, average consumption of oil in 2011 has made 18,8 million barrels a day whereas in pre-crisis 2007 - m it kept at level of 20,7 million barrels in day.

accordingly, the combination of growth of own manufacture of oil to reduction of its consumption leads to sharp decrease in import of oil: with 2004 - go on 2008 - j import read off scale for 12 million barrels a day, now it comes nearer to 8 million it is level of the middle 1990 - h. To precritical indicators of still far and other developed part of the world: with 2007 - go on 2011 - j the European countries have reduced consumption from 16,2 million barrels a day to 15 million, Japan from 5 million to 4,5 million This tendency during the current year only amplifies against recession in an eurozone and the general weakness of world economy. A final consumer demand stagniruet, stagniruet and oil consumption.

it is not necessary to forget and about progress of power saving up technologies. Though demand for oil and neelastichen in short-term prospect from - for absence of alternatives to which it would be possible to be switched quickly, in long-term prospect (months, years) consumers gradually change the habits, trying to minimise and rationalise the costs on expensive energy. The collapse of the market of big jeeps SUV in 2008 - m (in Europe with its high prices for gasoline SUV on a broader scale very few people bought) can serve in the USA as a good illustration of process of the adaptation to the high prices. As soon as in 2008 of the price for gasoline in the USA have started to read off scale for $4 for gallon (in Europe the prices on the average in 1,5 - 2 times above), sales gluttonous SUV, nicknamed also gas guzzlers, " devourers of gasoline " have fallen off. The statistics of sales of a car in the USA for last months already shows the increased interest of buyers to economic hybrids and electropenalties. While, however, a share of sales of hybrids and elektrokarov it is not strong above 3 % from total amount. However, for example, in Japan the economic hybrid of Toyota Prius keeps in leaders of sales 13 months on end. The tendency is obvious.

the trend on consumption decrease in the basic world economy is compensated only by growth of demand from developing countries. So, consumption of oil by the countries which are not entering in OESR, has grown from 36,2 million barrels a day in 2007 to 42,1 million barrels in 2011 - m. the Leader of demand as it is easy to guess, there was China. Raw Gargantjua has shown perfect appetite in crisis years: consumption has grown for four years on 30 %, from 7,5 million to 9,8 million barrels a day. However, this trend will hardly be saved, group economist Deutsche Bank in China considers Dzhun Ma. At the Petersburg economic forum in June he has told: " We put serious efforts to pass to use of alternative energy sources, to find replacement of oil and to traditional kinds of energy ". By its estimations, oil consumption will grow in the Peoples Republic of China on 3 - 4 % a year.

have slightly increased consumption of oil and neighbours of China on BRIC India, Brazil and Russia: fast epicritic restoration of economy has affected. Forces of developing countries it has appeared to overcome enough former pre-crisis peak of global consumption of the oil, reached just in 2007 when world consumption made 85,8 million barrels a day: in 2011 - m already 88 million But nevertheless is not present rapid growth of demand and if to subtract is abnormal high rates of increase of consumption of oil in China (many raw analysts consider that the solid share of a gain of the Chinese import does not go on consumption, and settles in strategic oil stocks in the same way, as mounts of copper and iron ore) some reduction in demand will turn out even.

Besides, it is precipitate to assume that the further growth of demand on - former will be provided by the Peoples Republic of China and other emerging markets. Simple extrapolation of a trend of growth of the Chinese consumption on the future a dangerous occupation. Growth of economy of the Peoples Republic of China keeps on extremely high relation of investments to gross national product (50 %) so, it and is extremely unstable. China cannot isolate the from world problems is export focused, semisocialist, institutsionalno weak, peregretuju, economy suffering affliction from overproduction. At raw Gargantjua can happen and an indigestion. The risk of rigid landing of the Chinese economy is mentioned and at Maudzheri. At realisation of this scenario to the prices for oil, in its opinion, on a broader scale it will be difficult to find any steady bottom.

If Maudzheri, and also analysts Goldman Sachs and Bentek Energy are right, the general public will soon forget so fashionable still recently concept Peak Oil, deficiency of oil to threaten any more will not be. And to the countries too dependent on export of energy carriers and the prices for them, it is necessary - taki to reflect on alternative variants of own economic development.

it, certainly, too concerns Russia. It was logical to expect that the first session of the presidential commission on strategy of development of thermal power station will be devoted these risks. However, judging by published on a site of the Kremlin to the shorthand report, Vladimir Putin last week has not mentioned a word about the problems listed above. On the contrary, he has referred to anonymous experts, by which estimations " the next decades demand for energy carriers, and also their derivatives will be stable, and both in Russia, and in the world markets ".