" Stimulating measures and the decisions accepted today, better, than the same decisions accepted tomorrow "
In May, 2012 the government has confirmed tax rules for oil recovery and gas on a shelf. One of authors of this approach, the deputy minister of power Feodor`s Paul, specially for " the Authorities " has defined variants of tax stimulation for other projects on extraction of power resources, including on a land.
Feodor`s Paul was born in 1974. In 1995 - the m has ended Novosibirsk state university. In 1998 has received degree of the master at University of the State of Washington. With 1998 for 2005 the chief executive, the vice-president " Morgan Stanley " (London). With 2006 for 2007 the operating director " JU - Bi - Es " (Moscow). With 2007 for 2010 the operating director, the senior adviser " Morgan Stanley " (Moscow). With 2010 for 2012 The first vice-president of Open Society " NK " Rosneft " " on economy and the finance. C March, 2012 the deputy minister of power of the Russian Federation.
last years the government realised a complex of the stimulating measures, allowed to start new large oil deposits of Eastern Siberia. Tax stimulus have been given several large-scale projects, and each such decision result was frequent public discussion of the profile departments solving problems of immediate filling of the budget or long-term development of branch. For shelf oil recovery and gas in May, 2012 it was possible to develop complex rules which Vladimir Putin has characterised as " stable, predicted and long-term " but for perspective projects on a land the question of a stimulating tax mode remains opened.
world economy Problems have deep structural character, and, despite considerable safety factor of the Russian economy, its immunity is not unbounded. Therefore taking into account risks which are created by a global conjuncture, quality of economic decisions and the stimulus of development defined by the state, plays the major role for our economy.
despite uncertainty regarding external factors, it is possible to assert that decisions such quality are, and stimulus can be effectively and are quickly defined. In this article it seemed to me important to show some simple approaches which can not only essentially raise stability of the Russian economy, but also stimulate to its further development. Possible decisions become obvious if we agree with four base messages.
1. Defining role in development of the Russian economy is played by oil branch After all oil recovery brings in the budget of the country more than 40 % of incomes, it is the basic source of a natural rent for the state, the major factor of growth and system stability.
2. The future of the Russian oil branch is defined by its investment activity readiness of participants of branch to put new dollars in new projects just and is pledge of the future tax revenues and growth. High level of investment activity at the balanced distribution of a rent it also is final criterion of success of activity of the state in the branches, the indicator of qualitative use of resource potential focused on prospect.
3. The stimulus directed on increase of investment activity, become effective only when corporate sector in all variety can make on their basis of the decision on investments in the conditions of clear, uniform, stable rules. Ability of corporate sector to accept ten, hundreds, thousand separate investment decisions will be defining for scalability of economic benefit of decisions of the state, ability of the companies to capitalise such stimulus effectively to involve money under new projects and to invest them with the greatest possible predictability.
4. Time money. Stimulating measures and the decisions accepted today, better, than the same decisions accepted tomorrow. There is no sense to wait, if already today there are tools which can give an impulse to growth, they need to be realised.
what conclusion can be made of these four simple, consistent postulates? The next years the major factor of economic growth our ability minimum loss time will create scaled stimulus of investment activity of corporate sector in oil branch which could provide realisation of new investment projects with the balanced distribution of a rent and without risks of loss of incomes of the budget under already existing projects. If to set such problem the possible decision becomes absolutely obvious.
the last some years public authorities, are conducted by experts and participants of branch discussion of directions of tax reform of oil branch, including necessity of transition to the taxation of financial result of the oil companies; measures on updating of a disbalance in the extraction and oil refining taxation are taken. So the major step in the form of a mode 60 - 66 for increase of profitability of existing deposits, in particular, is realised, its complex monitoring is organised, scenarios of target rates of export duties on oil and oil products are studied. All it the major work, but, you see, distinct from stimulation of investments into new projects on oil recovery. On them as has shown experiment of tax reform for shelf projects, there is a potential to move forward more resolutely and with ready smaller risks for the budget. Such approach for new investment projects also was to be discussed.
let`s define all new deposits as deposits which have an indicator of clarity below any certain lath. In the conditions of today`s tax system for oil branch all such projects are unprofitable, decisions on their realisation and new investments are postponed by the companies year by year. Let`s ekspertno fix sredneotraslevuju standard cost of realisation of new investment projects most likely, it will be up to standard of $7 - 10 for barrel of the saved up extraction. And now we will give clear, capitalised, uniform stimulus of investment activity of all branch in the form of decrease in turnaround taxes (the export duty, NDPI) in size, say, 30 % (the concrete figure here is subject to discussion) from such standard capital investments for new projects. For an example, concerning any deposit N with stocks of 100 million tons of oil and settlement volume of investments of $6,2 mlrd (for barrel) such investment credit in the form of the lowered export duty and / or NDPI would make $8,5$1,9 billion
That loses the budget from such decision? Anything. Without tax stimulus these projects so also waited, while the price of oil will not reach astronomical values to be profitable in existing tax system, and the resulted cost of tax revenues upon would be equal to zero.
that the economy from such decision wins? Almost instant and most significant inflow on the sizes of new investments. Additional receipts in the budget from realisation of projects. Increase of predictability of conditions of business dealing and quality of an investment climate, occurrence in branch and in the country new prospecting and dobychnyh the technologies, capable to ensure functioning in new geografijah. Simplicity of acceptance of the decision and administration, a projection of stimulus to all branch. Powerful multiplicate effect for investments into allied industries and the general growth of employment.
it is separately important to notice that the approach of the direct investment credit in percentage of normirovannyh capital expenses can Unlike often discussed (as target new tax for oil branch) the tax to financial result to encourage as much as possible effective realisation of the project. For conditional deposit N that fact that one investor can realise the project for $15 for barrel (with the worst financial result), does not mean that he should pay less taxes, than the investor who can make the same for $7 for barrel. Differently, such approach will create motivating for efficiency increase, instead of for overestimate of expenses the most effective operators will win as a result.
it is unconditional, for many new projects such measures will appear insufficient. More often their realisation is interfaced to building of an additional pipeline, power, transport infrastructure, and for achievement of the minimum profitability of investments and return on the capital the additional stimulus taking into consideration concrete circumstances and economy of this or that project can be demanded. These stimulus it will be necessary with full responsibility and taking into account the turned out practice to consider, but nothing prevents to make the decision on moving up all set of perspective new investment projects of branch to profitability border. After that it is possible to give possibility to corporate sector most to define, a leah to wait further additional design stimulating decisions or to start to invest.
everything that for this purpose is required, In parallel with work continuation on complex reforming of system of the taxation and completion of a technique of granting poproektnyh tax stimulus to come to a consensus of all on one figure to the size of uniform investment stimulus, that percent of the investment credit from normirovannyh expenses and after that to make the basic decision. The above this figure, the is closer new projects of branch will approach to border of profitability here again it is necessary to observe accurately balance of interests of the state and investors.
I suggest to think together seriously about such rebalansirovke and creation of direct stimulus of investment activity. After all on it really depends very many.