Laws of great numbers
last week the first session of the State Duma of the sixth convocation has come to the end. On all its extent the parliamentary majority showed staunch fidelity of a supervising line, having begun the work with increase of a political competition and having finished the next crackdown.
basic novelty of a situation in which the sixth Duma has started to work, was defined by two circumstances. In - the first, on elections on December, 4th, 2011 " an United Russia " having before in the lower chamber the constitutional majority (more than 300 places from 450), have received only 49,3 % of voices though thanks to features of proportional system nevertheless has saved the simple majority in 238 voices. In - the second, right after December voting in Moscow mass actions " have begun; For fair elections " affected both on a policy of a ruling tandem, and for work of legislators. However, already after presidential election it was found out that as the tool prodavlivanija the decisions necessary to the power the simple Duma majority does not differ from the constitutional almost.
a liberal gait
the Main distinctions between the fifth and sixth Dumas became obvious already at the first session which has passed on December, 21st, in the heat of performances " the annoyed townspeople ".
all Has begun that standing for speakers of the State Duma Sergey Naryshkin, in absentia polemizing with the predecessor Boris Gryzlov, has solemnly promised that the Duma becomes again " a place for the most serious and concrete discussions ". Then distribution of supervising posts in which course United Russia party members have shown unprecedented before generosity has taken place. The opposition has received one of two fasts of the first vitse - the speaker (communist Ivan Melnikov), 6 of 13 places in advice of chamber became it and 14 from 29 committees, including and such significant, as committees on defence, the industries, power and housing and communal services. For comparison: in the previous convocation the deal of voices in Duma council made 7:3 in advantage " an United Russia " and from 32 committees oppositionists supervised only 6, allocated with it is obvious by a residual principle. At last, the commission on deputy ethics (she, in particular, solves questions on deprivation of Duma members of a vote for unseemly behaviour) and has been at all generated on a parity basis: 7 United Russia party members and 7 representatives of opposition have entered into it.
has not done without liberal innovations and in actually legislative activity. Certainly, it in many respects spoke the maintenance of the bills considered by deputies within the limits of political reform declared by president Dmitry Medvedev. But " Wind with Marsh " povejalo and in the Duma: representatives of the majority where more often, than before, listened to opinion of minority and countenanced many initiatives of opposition.
so was, for example, with the invitation in the Duma for the report on December elections of the head of the Central Electoral Commission Vladimir Churova and heads of power departments whom earlier the party in power carefully preserved against anger of oppositionists. Later at political parties law discussion " an United Russia " has agreed with the important amendment of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation obliging Ministry of Justice in case of error detection in the demand not to refuse check in, and to give out the complete list of discrepancies and to give time for correction. And the invitation of leaders of stand-alone opposition of Vladimir Ryzhkova and Sergey Udaltsova to discussion of a package of projects about political reform and #150 became the most visible symbol of a new course; let even only as spectators.
At the same time (that is by a majority of votes) United Russia party members used the tool available at their order accurately enough and only when the opposition, in their opinion, obviously afforded the superfluous. We will tell, oppositional fractions have prepared the statement project for ward of head TSIKa " About mass infringements of the selective legislation " in which have suggested to express Churovu mistrust, to investigate all messages on infringements on elections and to reform electoral committees on especially party basis. But the party in power, certainly, on such a victim to go could not in any way and has insisted on acceptance of the variant with the neutral name " About elections of deputies of the State Duma of the sixth convocation ".
At the same time and loud scandals United Russia party members tried to avoid direct confronting whenever possible. For example, in the beginning of February, at the height of the war of meetings developed during presidential campaign, they wanted to initiate acceptance of the statement of the State Duma " about protection of the constitutional system and preservation of political stability " which should on a plan of its authors " to unite all healthy forces and to put a barrier " orange revolution " ". However oppositionists have conceived this idea in bayonets, having declared that the party in power " understands political stability as preservation for life Putin`s authorities ". In this situation to use the majority " an United Russia " has not risked, having limited to acceptance of the statement on behalf of fraction.
easing up to toughening
If Vladimir Putin after victory on March elections has decided to continue a course of the predecessor at least on partial liberalisation also the Duma thaw for certain would last much longer. But the new old president has preferred to return to crackdown and after it the new course with enthusiasm was supported also by the parliamentary majority.
However, in March these changes were yet very appreciable, unless " an United Russia " began hardly to apply is more often the majority to acceptance of the laws necessary to the power. But in April installation on turning of a political competition became enough obvious. As an original watershed acceptance of amendments to the bill of the governor`s elections which have actually changed the initial concept of this document has served. After all after introduction at once two additional filters (municipal and criminal) these elections have definitively lost any similarity that passed in Russia in second half 90 - h first half of zero years, and voting has turned to the formal statement voters of nominee in advance selected by the authorities. And these amendments were accepted in the best traditions of the recent past, that is at full ignoring by United Russia party members of opinion of opponents.
well and in the middle of May, right after collisions of demonstrators with police near the Marsh area, legendary edinorossovskaja the car on shtampovaniju the laws necessary to the power at last has earned on a total power. Acceptance of those or other documents by voices became exclusive one fraction again norm, and the opposition needed to resort only to different doubtful cunnings, though as - that complicating a party in power high-powered work, like a sensational working-to-rule strike by consideration of draconian amendments to the law on meetings.
a characteristic sign of a new course became accelerated prodavlivanie of some the most odious projects which have called a storm of indignation not only at the Duma opposition, but also at many representatives of a civil society. Most appreciable of them were the mentioned amendments to the law on meetings, in hundreds times raising penalties for infringements during public actions, amendments to the law on the noncommercial organisations (NKO) which demand from NKO, receiving financing from - for a boundary, to be registered as foreign agents, and the amendment to the Criminal code about article returning " Slander ". And in a role of the basic authors of these initiatives probably, for bolshej persuasiveness recent oppositionists have acted: amendments about meetings and NKO were brought by the former head of the Bashkir branch " Fair Russia " Alexander Sidjakin, and the project about slander the former visible member of the Union of the right forces, and nowadays the head of the Duma committee of the civil and criminal legislation Paul Krasheninnikov.
last bill should be noted especially as it reflects one more new tendency which has been found out recently in work of the State Duma. The matter is that article 129 has been withdrawn from UK all seven months ago at the initiative of president Dmitry Medvedev of that time. It has been made within the limits of campaign for humanisation UK as which many experts consider as one of few real achievements of the previous head of the state. And the same Krasheninnikov has signed the conclusion of the committee in which any claims to slander decriminalization it was not put forward in the last autumn.
now United Russia party members, referring to necessity " strengthenings of responsibility regarding infringement of constitutional laws of citizens " have suggested not only to refuse these medvedevskih gains, but also sharply to toughen former norms. So, in the absence of aggravating circumstances the penalty for " distribution of obviously false data discrediting honour and worthiness of other person or undermining its reputation " will raise from 80 thousand to 100 thousand rbl. And the maximum punishment (for " The slander connected to charge of the person in fulfilment heavy or especially of grave crime ") Will make 500 thousand rbl. or imprisonment for the term up to five years (in old UK was 300 thousand rbl. and till three years of prison). Besides that after decriminalization citizens for slander were threatened with only administrative penalty at the rate from 1 thousand to 5 thousand rbl. Taking into account that that concerns grave crimes, for example, corruption, and the majority of similar charges to officials from citizens and mass-media courts immutably recognise " obviously false " it is easy to assume, whose constitutional laws will be protected by reanimated article UK.
However, Vladimir Putin last week has suggested Duma members to withdraw from the bill punishment in the form of imprisonment (definitively this document should be countenanced on July, 13th, already after number signing in the press). But with the idea to return slander in UK the president did not begin to argue. So it is possible to expect that soon the State Duma will be engaged in audit and others medvedevskih initiatives, and already promised return of winter time, seemingly, becomes most harmless of these counterreforms.
an alternative reality
it is necessary to remind once again, however, that the sharp turn which has happened during spring session of the Duma from liberalisation to toughening became possible exclusively because, having typed in December, according to official figures, hardly less than 50 % of voices, " an United Russia " nevertheless has received more than half of deputy mandates. In this connection it is interesting to present that would occur in the lower chamber if even the simple majority at the party in power was not. As this alternative reality does not look such fantastic: we will tell, if United Russia party members were supported by 45 % of voters (and some experts are assured that actually at " an United Russia " Was even less than 40 %) in the Duma they would have about 215 places and for acceptance of any laws the help of opposition would be necessary to them. And many decisions of chamber would be absolutely others.
However, Dmitry Medvedev for which statement in our reality 299 deputies have voted would become the prime minister in that case all the same. Hardly also distribution of supervising Duma fasts seriously would change: as shows experiment 1990 - h years, in that case the representative of the party, taken on elections the first place becomes the speaker usually, and other posts are distributed between fractions to voices proportionally received by them. Political reform and #150 would be for certain countenanced medvedevskaja; only in the bill of governor`s elections there would be no filters, and the minimum number of parties would raise with offered 500 at least to 5 thousand persons. At any deal, laws on control over expenses of officials would be passed about creation of public television, about replacement of present system of state purchases with federal contract system and about the name Russian NKO foreign agents. And even rather disputable project about creation of the black list the Internet - sites too, most likely, would pass on hurrah, especially after in the second reading under pressure the Internet - communities have been made to it the essential changes which have limited the list of forbidden subjects by a children`s pornography, propagation of drugs and appeals to a suicide.
at the same time at absence at United Russia party members of the simple majority obviously would not type a necessary poll many initiatives for which the party in power voted only. In particular, Russia and would not enter the WTO, article UK " would not be restored; Slander " Amendments would not be approved to the law on meetings and the bill of introduction of one uniform day of voting (EDG) on the second Sunday of September instead of former two (the opposition agreed one EDG, but suggested to appoint it to October or March). At the same time in Russia with the big share of probability there would be laws on nationalisation of key industries of economy, on introduction of the value-added tax for incomes of physical persons (and at the same time and the tax to luxury) and about a duty of candidates to participate in teledebates on elections of all levels.
however, at modelling of this alternative reality it is necessary to consider one more essential moment: as practice if a quantity of the Duma voices they, as a rule, receive it extremely is required to the Kremlin and the White house shows. Examples such during the come to the end session it is possible to consider, say, Medvedev`s statement as the prime minister (though to symbolical 300 voices deputies nevertheless have not held on), removal of inviolability from communist Vladimir Bessonov (281 voice for) and approval of the amendments, actually resolving to the present head of the Sovereign court Vyacheslav Lebedev to hold this post for life.
In first two cases solving contribution to total result have brought the liberal - democrats, and at change of the constitutional law " About judicial system " what needed at least 300 voices, them has joined and " Fair Russia ". Though a month before it spravorossy like would show extreme degree oppozitsionnosti, at first having refused to rise at Putin`s occurrence in the State Duma, and then and at all having left a boardroom in protest at unwillingness of the prime minister of that time to support their opinion on falsification of results of elections of the mayor of Astrakhan.
And still the main reserve " an United Russia " on a case for the present hypothetical unforeseen circumstances, probably, it is necessary to consider LDPR. After all, for example, about meetings and about elections of governors the liberal - democrats simply did not participate in sign votings by amendments, having left, thus, to itself a field for maneuver. Also it is possible to assume that, be at the party in power a severe need in additional votes on these questions, give them Vladimir Zhirinovsky`s co-workers could. As it is convincing to give reason for sharp change of a position on any question for the leader of LDPR tempted in public disputes of any work does not make.