The Dollar was, is and will be the basic reserve world currencyDollar — bad currency. However all the others are even worse. In the market great economist John Keynes compared a choice of actions to a beauty contest, which purpose — to find not easier most beautiful girl, but also such which will be pleasant to the majority. In the present currency market of a rule others: it is necessary to choose the least ugly participant. Thus it is desirable, that it was pleasant to all in the foreseeable future. The problem difficult, but the American conquers it.
despite all orgies of quantitative easing, dollar on - former the basic reserve world currency. According to IMF, its share in official reserves of Central Banks is almost immutable many years. In 1995 - m it made 59,0 %, in the second quarter of this year — 61,9 %.
The matter is that the dollar has not enough competitors. The Most important — euro — hands over the positions typed in the corpulent zero. The euro share in reserves has reached record 27,6 % in crisis 2009. Then it seemed to much that an eurozone — an islet of relative stability in the sea of world problems. However W the beginning of eurocrisis popularity of euro as reserve currency oslabla. On a face of the European beauty it was found out too much make-up covering ugly spots. The old kind American W Benjamin Franklina`s double chin as it was found out, more nicely. Already in the second quarter of this year the euro share has decreased to 25,9 %.
the Eurochimerathe Euro has appeared very bad currency. And even at all currency in classical understanding. It is an economic chimera, the transsexual, it is casual zatesavshijsja in the company of girls.
the concept of optimum currency zones has affirmed as an economic science still W 1960 - h years. For working out of this theory James Mid and Robert Mandell have RCVed Nobel Prizes in 1977 and 1999. Its sense that when political and currency borders do not coincide, elimination mechanisms neravnomernostej developments are necessary. In their eurozone it is obviously not enough.
In - the first, flexibility of a labour market. For example, if now in the same Greece or Spain salaries and pensions have sharply decreased, the economy would become more competitive. However it is fraught with social explosion. Therefore it is considered that labour expenses are not flexible in respect of reduction, to cut down salaries not only wants nobody, but also cannot — for this purpose it is necessary to change the labour and social legislation considerably.
in respect of increase labour expenses were flexible B4 umopomrachenija. Noble elliny have QIK established to itself quite West European salaries and pensions (if not above, considering early age of an exit on the merited rest). As a result on periphery of a uniform currency zone there were regions with the expensive and unproductive labour market.
If flexibility of a labour market neidealna, can help labour mobility which reduces unemployment in one part of the currency union at the expense of employment growth in another. Result — alignment of unemployment and working capacity of a currency zone. For example, in the USA, according to Bureau of labour statistics, since 1990 - h years about 2,5 % of the population annually change residing staff.
however in an eurozone of a uniform labour market is not present. According to Eurostat, the residing country changes no more than 0,1 % of the population a year. Spaniards (unemployment — 25,1 %) do not go on earnings to Germany (5,5 %). This display of one more well-known problem of the common European home — the language. Very few people in Spain or in Greece knows German, and W/ O it a maximum, on what it is possible to apply in Northern Europe, — black and badly paid WRK. Certainly, Turks in Germany or Poles in Great Britain agree and a role of guest workers. But this position does not suit richer citizens of an eurozone — it to RCV rather decent unemployment benefit in the homeland easier. From here and low mobility of a labour market — the given mechanism of alignment of a disbalance does not work, the difference between the eurozone countries only grows in a rate of unemployment. All it does an eurozone and euro even less steady. EVN W/ O any financial crises.
other feature concerning the successful currency unions — budgetary transfers. They help to level an economic status of regions irrespective of features of a labour market. In EU there are only some insignificant fiscal mechanisms of redistribution of resources between " rich " and " poor " the countries but ABT any the general 4 all eurozone the budgetary mechanism there is no also a speech. Thus, the euro represents a fruit of ambitions of the European bureaucracy which long-term viability else it is necessary to prove.
Three CinderellasBut besides dollar and euros participate in competition also others " beauties ". All two are Gud traditional konkursantki — the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. Despite a high state debt, Japan — the largest net - the creditor of the whole world. In hard times Japanese holders of the European and American actives will repatriate the capital, and the yen grows. That is the worse the situation in the world, the to it is better. EVN the unpleasant phenomena in the Japan (like last year`s earthquake) are accompanied by sale of foreign actives and the raised demand for yen.
Switzerland too large net - the creditor that in crisis should contribute in franc strengthening. However it since autumn of last year is actually adhered to euro (the bottom lath &mdash is entered; 1,2 francs for euro). From - for that that the capital runs from the European periphery to the Alpes, it is urged to buy up the Swiss Central Bank more and more euro, and at any stage, probably, will not sustain and will be urged to admit franc revaluation.
unlike euro and franc, and yen normal currencies but apply for a role of the basic reserve cannot. These konkursantki though also nice, but too small. Gross national product of Japan is three times less, than gross national product of the USA or EU. Switzerland in this comparison on a broader scale karlitsa. The yen share in world reserves after crisis 2008 - has grown 2009, however in comparison with 1990 - mi it decreases together with a share of economy of Japan in world gross national product. In the second quarter of this year it has made only 3,8 %. The share of the Swiss franc and that is less — only 0,1 %.
the Former beauty queen — the British currency — has absolutely lost former greatness. Crisis has strongly pulled about pound sterling, the Bank of England has started scale issue programs. As a result pound for crisis years sharply devalvirovalsja under the relation not only to yen and franc, but also 2 dollar. The share of the British currency in world reserves in pre-crisis 2007 made 4,7 %, now — only 3,8 %.
Currencies not the greatest economy, both fundamentally Gud, and bad, will never apply for a dollar role at least because they too small. EVN the yuan in foreseeable prospect cannot make to it a competition. And this with the fact that gross national product of the Peoples Republic of China — the second in the world after the American. 4 yuan there is no financial ecosystem.
its course copes the state that is unacceptable for many investors. But the main thing at all it. Hold money in yuans rather small investor &mdash can only; 4 large there is no sufficient choice and volume of liquid papers. Others young and vigorous konkursantki — currencies of emerging markets — Could not create round itself aura of honouring yet and LUV, are too exotic, inconvenient and not clear 4 the investor.
the chief executive of committee on financial stability of Bank of England of Andrew Holdejn used other analogy. Its research is called " the Problem of the big fish in a small pond " (" The Big Fish Small Pond Problem "). 4 occurrence of new reserve currency, he writes, is necessary not only itself " the big fish " but also huge " a pond ". Liquid and very scale market of the reliable state and corporate securities nominated in this currency is necessary: the investor comes into it a multi-billion package, then leaves, and the market of it practically does not notice — there are only hardly appreciable ripples on a pond surface.
other potential applicants like the Brazilian real, the Russian rouble and Indian rupee even not small fishes in a small pond, and tadpoles in a pool. For example, capitalisation Russian blue chips makes about $0,7 trln, approximately as much, how much is one known American company — Apple. Turns at the American and Russian stock exchanges differ in tens times. So while to SPK about any world financial CTR in Russia and ABT the rouble status as reserve currency, to put it mildly, prematurely. Certainly, and quite large beings but while for this purpose it is a little preconditions sometimes grow from tadpoles.