Rus News Journal

The Chinese economy can already become the largest in the world by 2016

the Chinese economy can already become the largest in the world by 2016, experts OESR predict, and by 2030 gross national product distribution between developed and developing countries will cardinally change: cumulative gross national product of China and India will exceed indicators G7. Nevertheless and in 50 years the AVG income of the Chinese or the Indian will be on - former more low, than at the American or the Japanese though on level of savings and balance of foreign trade of the country become much is more close to each other. the next 50 years the world economy will grow on the average on 3 % a year, however in view of non-uniformity of growth by 2060 the share of developing economy will increase B4 68 %, experts OESR in the report devoted to the long-term forecast of development have counted up. Similar rates the Russian economy will grow also, however after 2030 its growth will be slowed down B4 1,3 % a year against reduction of economically active population. At the same time "more ambitious structural reformsť could provide gross national product gain by 2060 on 20 percentage points, mark in OESR

Meanwhile considerable shifts in world economy it is necessary to expect already in the near future: following the results of this year gross national product of China (calculated at par consumer ability) will surpass a similar indicator of a zone of euro, and by 2016 - an indicator of the USA. Nevertheless podushevoj the income in the developed countries and in 50 years approximately on a quarter will exceed this indicator in developing economy. At the same time the norm of private savings will consistently decrease - on the average 4 the developed countries on five percentage points by 2060 (last year in the USA - 12 %, in Germany - 24 %). Among developing countries by 2060 falling of a share of savings in gross national product on the average will make 19 percentage points, and in China - 40 items of the item (by the current moment - 53 % of gross national product). The same factor will lead SOL to reduction of a disbalance in world trade, it is marked in the report.

however, till 2030 from - for sharp growth of gross national product of economy W a high share of savings the world lath will raise and only after corresponding structural shifts (defined basically the population ageing) and in developing countries will begin its decrease. Thus in OESR have noticed that, despite universality of action of many market factors, experts frequently underestimate stability of a habit to considerable accumulation (so, some institutional economists refer to a high competition in "the wedded" market of China to succeed in which easier, having essential accumulation and as the demographic picture hardly will change in immediate prospects, the tendency can appear steadier, than followed expect). 2 experts OESR have come to a conclusion that migration cannot cover to the full effect from population ageing while the basic drivers of growth increase of productivity and labour market liberalisation minister.